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Old 31-10-2016, 11:06 AM   #1
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Default The Rise of the Robots

"The Rise of the Robots" by Martin Ford (non fiction). I spent all weekend with this book and rather put it in the books reading thread thought it warranted a thread all of its own. Business book of the year 2015, chock full of fearsome factoids which I will regale you with on this thread, no matter how much you think you know about the techno revolution, this book, written like an unputdownable thriller, sheds light on a something just around a very close corner in everyone's lives which would even make a Reptile run for the toilet. If David Icke hasn't read this book yet, he ought to.

The book begins with a brief description Moore's Law which states that something doubles roughly twice a year e.g if you were driving a car at 5mph then after one minute accelerated to 10mph, double your speed again after another minute not only would your speed increased but the amount of ground travelled would also widely expand.

So minute 1 = 440 feet
Minute 3 = 1,760 feet
Minute 5 (80mph) = over a mile

To such a point if acceleration continued doubling you would need jet engines a racetrack, and then some.

In terms of Information Technology which really began with the integrated circuit of 1958, Moore's law of acceleration has been going on for so long that our "car" is now travelling at 671 million miles per hour and accelerating. Five minutes at this speed would get you to Mars.

Such is the rapidity in development now of Information Technology and Artificial Intelligence and it is getting faster as I type.

One very basic life impacting example:

Momentum Machines Inc. has set out totally automate the production of gourmet quality beef burgers. The machines shape and season beef patties from ground beef to order at a rate of 360 burgers per hour and cooks them to order, it further toasts the bun and slices and assembles garnishes specific to customer order. It can also wash, peel, precision cut and deep fry potatoes in quantities and speeds previously unknown, before sending out completed orders via touch order screens on Sushi-style conveyor belts.

Now, the American beef burger industry is worth $9 Billion dollars per annum. McDonalds alone employs 1.8 million workers in 34,000 restaurants worldwide at a median wage of $8.69 per hour. A total wage bill of $135,000 per year per restaurant. In 2011 50,000 McJobs were advertised in a single day, receiving 1 million applications (in one day) the same year in which 7,000 touch screen ordering screens were ordered for its European restaurants.

With the onset of Momentum Machines virtual burger flipper it is easy to see where this is going, McDonalds, indeed all fast food burger outlets can be expected to cut s staff by 50% as the machinery becomes cheaper, and possibly by much more in the very near future at the same time guaranteeing improved quality and faster productivity for its customers.

The Virtual burger flipper requires no holiday pay, no sick pay, no pension, no lunch hour, no maternity leave, no coffee or cigarette break, nor does it claim overtime, join unions or go on strike. In terms of Health and Safety neither can it cause harm to itself or other employees or the company itself. It is never late for work. Never gets stuck in traffic. It never makes mistakes, gets sick itself or of its job. Nor does it need a uniform, paper hat or toilet and washroom facilities.

This is just one small corner of global economy where the robot has already risen. Yet if you neither manufacture nor munch beef burgers, don't feel left out. Similar robotic advancements are already highly developed in the worlds of agriculture, banking, construction, law, journalism, healthcare, education and transport even the entertainment industry, which Ford's book goes on to detail (with examples) to such a point where super intelligence and singularity lead us towards a new economic paradigm never known before.

In other words there is almost certainly an algorithm somewhere that can do your job far better, much faster (and more cheaply) than you do.

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Old 31-10-2016, 11:11 AM   #2
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Does it deal with robots in surgery? Now that is scary, I've seen videos of surgeons in one country manipulating surgical machinery in another one.
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Old 31-10-2016, 11:57 AM   #3
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Does it deal with robots in surgery? Now that is scary, I've seen videos of surgeons in one country manipulating surgical machinery in another one.
Absolutely, there is a whole chapter on healthcare. Some Factoids here:

Human errors often involving medication are costing the NHS between £1 Billion and £2.5 Billion per year.

Monies set aside for clinical negligence and lawsuits have risen from £8.7 billion (2010) to £15.6 billion (2014).

Studies predict a shortage of 200,000 doctors within the next 15 years, with a possible 500 GP surgeries to be closed in UK.

12,000 patients die in UK yearly owing to avoidable medical (human) error.

Software has already been developed to perform basic scans and the more accurate keeping and administration of patient records.

A pharmacy at the University of California dispenses 10,000 doses of medication everyday, untouched by a single human hand . The $7 million automated system order picks and packs the prescriptions by robotic hands at cost of around $350,000 for 19 robots; the human equivalent to pay 19 pharmacists operating at probably a quarter of that output would run to over $1 million.

The Hybrid Assisted Limb (HAL) developed in Japan, 20 years in development is an exoskeleton suit to assist the infirm and elderly providing mechanical movement assistance by powerful motors controlled to interpret signals from the brain costs $2,000 a year to hire. The suit will assist lifting, pushing, pulling, carrying, climbing and general movement at weights, speeds and strength beyond the human wearer's natural capability.

With developments in precision operations surgery, software advances suggest future scenarios of surgeon floorwalkers, who would merely "oversee" operations as they took place electronically by robot surgeons, a surgeon not necessarily needing to be present at every operation.

The hospital porter's days are likewise numbered with General Electric currently developing robots to locate, prepare, place and sterilise surgical instruments.

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Old 31-10-2016, 12:21 PM   #4
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Wow.
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Old 31-10-2016, 12:24 PM   #5
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Saw a docu recently on TV about how robots are being developed to take over certain jobs.
They showed a hotel in Japan where a human-looking robot books you in and another golf-cart-looking robot takes you and your luggage up to your room and then talks you through what is in the room and how to work it.
No need to tip.
Docu review here...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...r-room-service

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Old 31-10-2016, 12:25 PM   #6
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I dont have much spare money right now but I will buy this.
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Old 01-11-2016, 02:32 AM   #7
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Automation is of course a great thing ...who want's to spend their time flipping hamburgers of pushing trolleys in hospitals?

Soon there will be domestic human like robots to make my bed and do the shopping and cooking ... this is the real breakthrough ...

We are soon to take over from the dark ones , we will all have an affluent life style.... a life of leisure ...freedom from work.
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Old 01-11-2016, 04:40 AM   #8
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Automation is of course a great thing ...who want's to spend their time flipping hamburgers of pushing trolleys in hospitals?

Soon there will be domestic human like robots to make my bed and do the shopping and cooking ... this is the real breakthrough ...

We are soon to take over from the dark ones , we will all have an affluent life style.... a life of leisure ...freedom from work.
Right now in the primitive state we are in, flipping burgers and pushing trolleys is the only way for some folk to eat and put a roof over their head. Disgustingly we all know that many people need two of these jobs just to survive.
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Old 01-11-2016, 09:11 AM   #9
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Right now in the primitive state we are in, flipping burgers and pushing trolleys is the only way for some folk to eat and put a roof over their head. Disgustingly we all know that many people need two of these jobs just to survive.
This point is addressed by the author in terms of a global economic model ie. it's all well and good robotising everything from burgers to buses by sacking half the world's workforce apart from one slight oversight.

Human workers serve two functions : to produce goods and services and also to consume them via the income they receive. You can't have one without the other. No good producing goods and services which nobody can afford as they don't have jobs by which to do so. Author suggests a national minimum stipend for everyone of say £10,000 per year in UK to replace all salaries and benefits across the board while everyone enjoys the benefits of Robotopia.

Fearsome factoid here : in both UK and USA the top wealthiest 5% of households are responsible for 40% of all national consumer spending. The author makes reference to Kurt Vonnegut's first dystopian novel published in 1952 Player Piano which describes a robot driven world managed by a technical elite while everyone else faces a pretty pointless and meaningless existence. This really is the situation prevalent in America and to a similar extent in UK today : that of a top heavy economic Plutonomy dissolving both middle and working class.

Since the credit crunch crisis, for the top table only, disposable income spending has increased from 85% to 93%, with the remaining 95% of US population financially standing still or declining...from debt levels of 80% to 160% . Rich get richer...

This quotation from an American President on forthcoming Robotopia:

"There's no magic solution. To even stand still we have to move very fast. We have a combination of older workers who have been thrown out of work because of technology and younger people coming in with too little education. Too many people coming into the labor market and too many machines throwing them out"

These were not the words of Obama, the Bushes or even Clinton or Carter but made by President John F. Kennedy on September 2nd 1963 when unemployment stood at around 5.5%.

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Old 01-11-2016, 10:12 AM   #10
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More Robotoid Factoids:

In Northern Canada Inuit hunters are losing a 4,000 year old ability to navigate in frigid conditions owing to their reliance on GPS technology.

25,000 students drop out of University each year in UK. In 2014, 47% of Recent graduates were considered overqualified for the jobs they could find, Europe : 30%, Canada: 27%, China : 43%.

MOOC (Massive Open Online Courses) requiring no direct student - lecturer relationship, fees or accommodation costs took enrolments of more than 160,000 from 190 countries in 2011. The Higher education system in UK alone brings in £75 Billion in revenue and employs 750,000 people with future average student debt estimated at £44,000 per capita. MOOC is set to challenge the entire infrastructure of Higher Ed. and offer employer alternatives to traditional University graduates.

New Machine Learning algorithms now enable not only multiple choice tests to be marked by computer but also entire essays with built in software to check content, spelling, syntax, grammar and punctuation with built in anti-plagiarism detectors applicable to any arts and humanities subject which provoked a 4,000 strong petition signed by as many professional educators who rallied against it.

Finance : Wall Street employed 150,000 workers in New York. By 2013 this number had dropped to 100,000 owing to automation. Similar effects in UK with the major banks cutting 189,000 jobs over a five year period.

Vending machine technology has long since surpassed stale snacks and lousy coffee with studies projecting that intelligent vending machine and kiosk technology leading to a fully automated retail sector growing from $740 Billion in 2010 to more than $1.1 Trillion this year, reducing the three largest costs to retail: real estate, labour and theft as well as providing a continuous stream of data for stock control.

Apple's iPod & iPad are now fully available from airport vending machines, UK hospitals offering pre cooked three course microwaveable meals complete with cutlery via canteen vending machines, Cosmetics, clothing, toiletries, DVDs, books, newspapers, tins, packets, jars, cartons. even fresh meat , dairy and vegetable produce available from refrigerated vending machines. There is no reason why entire supermarkets and pubs could not be greatly streamlined and given over partially or totally to advanced vending machine technology by the end of the decade, staffed only by floorwalkers to keep an eye on customers and machines.

Transport. In the UK the Dept. for Transport estimates that there are around 720,000 road accidents each year, in 2013, 1,700 people were killed in UK collisions with 90% owing to human error. Globally about 1.25 million are killed in car crashes annually heralding the onset of the self driving car.

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Old 02-11-2016, 10:49 AM   #11
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Automation is of course a great thing ...who want's to spend their time flipping hamburgers of pushing trolleys in hospitals?

Soon there will be domestic human like robots to make my bed and do the shopping and cooking ... this is the real breakthrough ...

We are soon to take over from the dark ones , we will all have an affluent life style.... a life of leisure ...freedom from work.
Built in dangers in all this : especially in current climate, is cyber piracy and hackers. With entire countries possibly placed on a new AI chip war footing, opening the possibility that entire countries could be brought down by disabling banking, healthcare, energy and defence systems through rogue programmes. A new Cold Chip War.

It was mentioned on Radio 4 last night about how little is not now in some way attached to the internet with new programmable vacuum cleaners, lawn mowers, toasters, kettles, intelligent fridges right through to sewage systems, pacemakers and power supply.

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Old 21-11-2016, 08:33 PM   #12
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We have a company here in town that uses robot machines to go in where men can't, they break up what is left of our old blast furnesses and the like. Here is something tech is good for due to the human danger front, but these mobile mini tracked jack hammers could easily tear your house down in the wrong hands.
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Old 21-11-2016, 08:45 PM   #13
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Built in dangers in all this : especially in current climate, is cyber piracy and hackers. With entire countries possibly placed on a new AI chip war footing, opening the possibility that entire countries could be brought down by disabling banking, healthcare, energy and defence systems through rogue programmes. A new Cold Chip War.

It was mentioned on Radio 4 last night about how little is not now in some way attached to the internet with new programmable vacuum cleaners, lawn mowers, toasters, kettles, intelligent fridges right through to sewage systems, pacemakers and power supply.
The way this oldish engineering mind works is this, if we can think of ways for people control, then it's already been thought of using tech.

Let's say everyone is micro chipped it would be chidls play to ruin your day by accurately pinpointing your for a target in a crowd for say a mini killer drone with an explosive under carriage, to land right on top of your head before exploding, sinister I know, but I bet they have them already.

A friend has one of those auto lawnmowers that could be used for secret surveillance, programmed to receive.

Didn't the IPV6 give just about every device it's own signature?

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Old 21-11-2016, 08:52 PM   #14
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We have a company here in town that uses robot machines to go in where men can't, they break up what is left of our old blast furnesses and the like. Here is something tech is good for due to the human danger front, but these mobile mini tracked jack hammers could easily tear your house down in the wrong hands.
...and likewise put god knows how many labourers permanently out of work. The book Robots Rising has a chapter on construction that some guy has invented the automated construction worker using 3D printing technology... a robot which can mix and apply concrete and cement, lift and lay bricks to plan and theodolite accuracy, measure, cut and fit struts and timber to architectural precision, drill, hammer, screw, saw without a single cigarette or tea break in all weathers, 24/7 requires no holiday pay, sick pay or pension...completing the project more accurately and quickly than a team of a dozen men.

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Old 21-11-2016, 09:03 PM   #15
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The way this oldish engineering mind works is this, if we can think of ways for people control, then it's already been thought of using tech.

Let's say everyone is micro chipped it would be chidls play to ruin your day by accurately pinpointing your for a target in a crowd for say a mini killer drone with an explosive under carriage, to land right on top of your head before exploding, sinister I know, but I bet they have them already.

A friend has one of those auto lawnmowers that could be used for secret surveillance, programmed to receive.

Didn't the IPV6 give just about every device it's own signature?
The only way to get round that kind of techno would be to revert to lo-tech. Arthur Scargill discussed his use of walkie talkies at Orgreave which he said were so old and obsolete, Marconi himself probably made them, in order to
bypass police radio interception. Apparently they had dials on them which could be turned to 1 or 2. After a few hours police had allegedly hacked into their bandwidth 1 so they dialed up to 2 which the Police then cracked in the next 10 minutes...
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Old 21-11-2016, 09:59 PM   #16
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...and likewise put god knows how many labourers permanently out of work.

The book Robots Rising has a chapter on construction that some guy has invented the automated construction worker using 3D printing technology... a robot which can mix and apply concrete and cement, lift and lay bricks to plan and theodolite accuracy.

Measure, cut and fit struts and timber to architectural precision, drill, hammer, screw, saw without a single cigarette or tea break in all weathers, 24/7 requires no holiday pay, sick pay or pension...completing the project more accurately and quickly than a team of a dozen men.
All this tech should bring down the cost of living so we don't need to struggle, but we know it won't as long as high tech is in control of the few.

But we can both play this video star can't we, there is thousands of us who can create our own paradigm to help ourselves, I already know how to design 3D that can make itself quite easily, each one thereafter almost halves in price, and is already self asserted on asserted software, all we need to do is undercut the thieves by using our brains for ourselves and not them, it's a no brained really.

All that is needed is investment today to stop them tomorrow, they would not be able to compete with brains that can do the work beforehand.

And as things took off, give each other the ideas for free to prevent the state of forestalling via the patents office, if it's free it also elleiviates the need of money, this could happen so fast that they would have to join in or starve themselves out of the running.

This is why the stuff I make is for ourselves gathered over many years while I was working the 9 till 5 and gathering my own lifetimes worth of raw materials, forward thinking pays dividends in the form of savings.

Don't worry, they have checked me out and I'm all above my own boards, and there is nothing they can do bar shoot me, lol.

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Old 21-11-2016, 11:04 PM   #17
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All this tech should bring down the cost of living so we don't need to struggle, but we know it won't as long as high tech is in control of the few.

But we can both play this video star can't we, there is thousands of us who can create our own paradigm to help ourselves, I already know how to design 3D that can make itself quite easily, each one thereafter almost halves in price, and is already self asserted on asserted software, all we need to do is undercut the thieves by using our brains for ourselves and not them, it's a no brained really.
This is exactly the theme of Kurt Vonnegut's 1952 novel Player Piano. A future Robotopia where the world is divided between mega rich multinational Robotopia Corporation Executives and workers only too grateful to have an increasingly menial job servicing ubiquitous robots which are rapidly learning to manufacture and service themselves. Us and them...and robots.

It's a science fiction novel which contains not a great deal of fiction. Very prescient and very telling that it's never been made into a film.

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Old 22-11-2016, 04:25 AM   #18
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heart beeps, Rosey falling in love with max on The Jetsons, it's all hilarious.
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Old 22-11-2016, 12:08 PM   #19
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This is exactly the theme of Kurt Vonnegut's 1952 novel Player Piano. A future Robotopia where the world is divided between mega rich multinational Robotopia Corporation Executives and workers only too grateful to have an increasingly menial job servicing ubiquitous robots which are rapidly learning to manufacture and service themselves. Us and them...and robots.

It's a science fiction novel which contains not a great deal of fiction. Very prescient and very telling that it's never been made into a film.
I hear what your saying CT, when fiction becomes fact, and theory becomes robots in space, then we know it's a future we are already living in.

I'm all for labour saving tech like growing food, I'm sure we could invent tiny weed pulling robots to weed a crop of the most virile species without spraying the living daylights out of it with systemic poisons. There are perfect highways for the weedobots let's call them to run along, where the plants are drilling into perfectly straight lines.

This sort of tech could save billions a year in wasted diesel and petrochemicals that we would need far less plants and refineries.

Here is how the amiss do it.

http://homesteadgeneralstore.com/farm/tools/wheel-hoe
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Old 22-11-2016, 12:18 PM   #20
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Does anyone ever think we will ever be able to (not that we should) create a cyborg just like the Terminator with real live flesh blood, sweet, etc covering a alloy skeletal cyborg that is self automated and looks just like a human being?. Even if we could make the machine and the skin, blood, etc, creating something that looks like a living person, I don't think anyway, will ever be achieved. What we forget is that humans are conscious beings with a soul, and making something which is pretty much artificial will be completely unconvincing as being 100% human. It would like a zombie or corpse walking around: a physical body but lacking the energy/soul or whatever you call it.
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