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Old 13-01-2010, 07:21 PM   #1
jonas parker
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Default COA Analysis of Common Survival Strategies

shamelessly stolen from James Rawles' http://www.survivalblog.com...

While there are several things here that I do not agree with, this is good general information, applicable to both the US and the UK... JP


COA Analysis of Common Survival Strategies
by JIR on January 13, 2010 12:05 AM

Having spent a lot of years on military planning staffs, I can't help "war-gaming" scenarios. In short (as you know well) Course of Action (COA) development is a big part of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and is a fairly reliable way of looking at possibilities and choosing likely sequels, given scenarios. In effect, a way of "war-gaming" out the future. There are a number of horror scenarios that seem to me to be fairly probable and they keep going around and around in my head as I try to sequence them and assign probabilities to each one. I am haunted by the possible future, an occupational hazard for a professional planner. I sincerely hope our civilization outlives me because it's failure could be truly horrible.

I agree completely with you on relocation to safer areas and stocking a remote retreat in the hinter-boonies. That's the optimum solution and in worst case situations, it's really the only solution likely to work long term. Any of your readers stuck in less-than-optimum situations are going to make a valiant effort to survive, but their odds are not as good. I am one of these folks. I worry about the golden hoard more than anything else. I would like to pass on some thoughts on the subject of what the unwashed masses will be doing after TEOTWAWKI. I am only guessing, but my guesses are made using history as a template. If anyone disagrees with my analysis, I would love to hear about it.

What about those totally unprepared? What are they going to do? There are many survival strategies open to the unwashed masses other than sitting down and starving to death. We all need to compare our own plans with these other strategies because I guarantee some of these strategies will be used by the teeming masses. When the power grid drops and the food shipments end, the average citizen is going to get a huge shot of reality. Guessing what they are going to do WTSHTF is central to all other survival planning, especially in the Eastern US or Europe.

ASSUMPTIONS:
I am talking here about a total collapse situation, not a slow slide decline or regional disruption. You can pick your own favorite cause from an EMP event to a finance system failure. They all cause roughly the same sequence of events. The results of any catastrophic collapse could easily be worse than any fiction you have ever read. The worst case scenarios all result in disruption of services and quick spiral into anarchy, but leave most of the population alive and hungry. This is the stuff of nightmares.

To recap our unprecedented bad situation: The vast majority of people live in urban or suburban areas near large population centers. They are poorly prepared for any emergency and completely unable to live self sufficiently. The food production systems that currently supply their food are fragile and subject to catastrophic failure. Most people's very lives depend on a fragile triad made up of the transportation network, power grid and finance system. All three of these systems depend on the other two and they are all three unbelievably fragile. (There are many dependencies, but I see these as the three key points of failure.)

Most people currently live shoulder to shoulder in unthinkable crowding. Once the triad of services breaks down, the vast majority of people will suddenly be living on a very limited amount of capital in the form of the tiny amount of consumables on hand in each city. Once the Evian is gone and the toilets don't work, they will have no way to get drinking water or even dispose of their own sewage. They are literally less than a week away from serious acute hunger. (This sums up nicely the reasons to "GOOD" or "Get Out Of Dodge" as the old cowboy movie script writers put it, if you're in a big city - JP)

This situation will not get better unless the government is able to restore critical systems very quickly. The odds of restoring order get worse the longer the crisis lasts as the teeming masses start migrating and civil order disintegrates. Assuming the government fails, the countryside cannot feed the population of the USA without modern fuel, finance, power and distribution systems in place. Using 19th century techniques (where that is possible), the farmland in the USA cannot begin to feed everyone. (Europe has the same problem). In short, people are living where there will be no resources and farmland (and farmers) will be overtaxed just to support locals. We don't have the capital goods (horses, tack, hand plows, tools, seeds etc ) or skills to go back to old farming methods quickly. The math points to a die-off larger than anything recorded in history. Did I miss any main points?

People are not going to starve to death quietly. They never do unless there is a government to enforce it. Every last one of them is going to try something to survive or even just hang on one more day. Humans are survivors. They are intelligent, ruthless and deadly omnivores. We use the terms "sheeple", or "Joe Six-Pack" pretty flippantly, but even the most stupid human is very dangerous and many of the "sheeple" are not stupid or incompetent. They are, in fact, the most dangerous predators on earth. You are much better off surrounded by hungry tigers than hungry humans. On the other hand, these are real people that used to be your neighbors, mothers, fathers, daughters. When you look them in the face it's going to be very hard to pull a trigger.

AVAILABLE STRATEGIES:
This is not an all inclusive list. People are going to try all of these concurrently. I expect to see a general sequence of strategy choices, but it's not iron clad. While you would expect it much later in the crisis, you might run into a professional army on day one! The interplay of each strategy with the others is also hard to predict. People are going to try other things too (things that I haven't thought of). Local variables will effect how each strategy plays out and what events are likely to occur. The interplay of all these activities is where my analysis breaks down in complexity. You have to evaluate them with local variables, so generalizations can only go so far. I believe people will try all of these strategies. Some of them will work, but most of them will fail. There are only so many resources.

1. Begging/bartering. This is probably the first strategy you will encounter. Begging will go on until the very end. This strategy is open to everyone. It will work better for weak individuals, but ultimately, charity is going to dry up as resources get tighter. The vast majority of people who depend solely on begging will ultimately starve to death. (Unfortunately, most people will beg, barter, steal and kill, in that order. Even a single mother may cut your throat to save her children.)

PLANNING NOTE: In a total meltdown, the numbers will crush you if you let them. You have stored a finite amount of food, but there is an almost infinite number of beggars out there. Can you turn away a family with children who only want a bite to eat? You better think this out carefully and steel yourself for whatever you decide to do. If you give too many of your supplies away you will starve. If you turn everyone away, you may feel really bad. Think about it. How are your wife and kids going to react to begging? Watching a die-off is going to be tragic.

a. Bartering services. This could be prostitution or offering to act as security guard. This is actually a viable strategy for anyone with end-of-the-world useful skills. Find someone (or preferably a community) with food and sell yourself. If you have military training and equipment or specific skills, this could work. I don't expect all the doctors to starve.

b. Bartering goods.
Rich people may try to buy basic supplies at scalper's prices. You might get a great deal on a Rolex or Mercedes.

2. Stealing/looting. This is a "no-brainer" once law enforcement breaks down. Even while there is some order, people are going to steal anything they can get their hands on, even at the risk of being hurt or killed. If we drop into anarchy, expect crowds of hungry people or "professional rioters" to sweep the city streets. As the public-access shops and warehouses begin to empty, crowds may move into residential areas for a while, but I don't expect this to last long. Big crowds will probably disband completely when resources become more scarce or they have to travel further to get to them. A warehouse of food or shopping center near the inner city may support this behavior, but a suburban neighborhood 10 miles away won't. Residential areas within cities may be in serious peril. The closer you are to densely populated areas and/or poor areas, the more peril you face. Once the big flash-crowds disappear or people start to forage in the suburbs,
small groups will splinter off and begin raiding (see item #5 below).

There will also be a lot of solitary (or small groups) burglars and sneak-thieves. If you keep chickens in your yard, watch your neighbors closely. If you plan to go to work and leave your house empty, it may be looted while you are away. Gasoline tanks without locks will be prime targets for night visitors (and gasoline tanks with locks will probably just be drilled rather than siphoned - JP). Suburban gardens are prime targets. This applies to slow-slide declines too. (And this is a good reason to own a dog - an "grid-independent alarm system" - JP)

Beggars can turn into looters quickly if nobody is watching. If nobody answers a door, they may try to break a window. The suburbs may be swamped with beggar/looters. As they get more desperate, looters will get bolder and more dangerous. The further out of town you live the safer you will be from this group. Of course, the more isolated you are, the more vulnerable you are to raiders.

3. Wait It Out.
Some people will sit tight and wait for things to somehow return to normal. Most people who have food and other resources will try to live on them and wait it out. If they stay in small family groups, they will be easy prey for mobs or raiders. Still, I expect most urbanites will do this until they are almost out of resources...then they will join the beggars and looters. This group will grow smaller every day and swell the numbers of looters.

4. Banding.
Almost all people will band together for mutual protection and support. How well this works depends on many factors, but ultimately the only safety anywhere will be provided by numbers. Single survivors will get swallowed up quickly.

a. Banding by family unit.
This is the basic family group and will be the the first and most common grouping. These groups are small in size but very cohesive. Most families will quickly band with other families into larger groups. The ones who don't will be easy prey.

b. Banding by geography. Neighborhoods will try to form bands for mutual protection. Neighborhoods will try to do this, but historically, this is often not very effective, especially if the distance between neighbors is large. Sharing of resources within neighborhood bands is spotty and as individuals run low, they tend to leave. Rural neighborhood watches are doomed by small numbers, and urban neighborhood watches are doomed from having too many people.

Populations of small towns will band together to put up road-blocks and keep from being overwhelmed. This is the only way most small communities will be able to survive, even if they are capable of supporting themselves by farming. Unless they band effectively and very quickly, they are doomed to be overrun by refugees or raiders. Even the communities who quickly band together may get soft-hearted and let in too many people to support. I think pitiful refugees are more dangerous than raiders. It's a rare American who can watch genuine suffering and not try to help. This is especially dangerous if it looks as though the situation could improve and things go back to normal. If there is hope of getting help from outside the community, most people are inclined to save as many others as possible. I feel that this issue will doom many small communities.

PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If your plans include banding with a farming community, you must take steps immediately to close off the flow of refugees into the area. Convincing others to take steps this drastic will be hard or even impossible, especially early in a crisis. Closing your community and isolating it may very well be impossible. If it is, you are at the mercy of fate and geography. You had better have a plan-b.

c. Banding by profession. Cops, medical workers, emergency workers, soldiers, and perhaps factory workers may band with co-workers. You will especially see this behavior with professional military groups. Beware of military installations in a total breakdown! You have a lot of very young, very scared and highly trained young men with no families there. It might get very dangerous to be near a military town if the government totally disappears. (In a slow slide disaster or regional disaster Army Towns are perhaps the safest places to be, but once the chain of command disappears, watch out.)

d. Banding by religion. This is perhaps the easiest, most effective band to join, since the churches already congregate groups of like-minded people within a small area. Religious bands will probably be the basis for "small community group banding" and are usually the strongest bands possible to form on short notice. All the church groups in an area or a town will likely band together and put on the mantle of "local government". I anticipate local churches forming the backbone of most local governments. They will be equipped with arm bands and represent "legitimate" government when they come to loot your supplies. Joining one of these bands will be a good survival strategy for many people, but in a total collapse, they are very likely to keep as many people alive as possible until they run out of resources and then starve together. Expect to see local polities formed from church groups going to war as resources get scarce. They will go after both looters and hoarders. Fascism in America will probably arrive carrying a cross. (Fascism in America will more likely arrive wearing a blue beret or carrying a Koran - JP)

e. Banding by racial or ethnic group. You will see racially or ethnically pure groups in some regions. This could be very important factor in places like Los Angeles or New York almost immediately and may take precedence over geography or religion. It's an ugly thought, but being the wrong color may be a death sentence some places. (Ironically, I don't expect any serious racial tension in the deep South.)

f. Banding by gang or club affiliation.
Not only urban gangs and bikers, but also gun-clubs, country clubs, and survival groups fall into this category. Some clubs will obviously not band effectively in an emergency (like a yacht club for instance), but you can bet the Aryan Brotherhood will cleave together like real brothers. Your survival group, can form a strong group if you have like minds and have clear plans for how to band, where to meet etc.

(PLANNING NOTE: Unfortunately, you are very unlikely to be able to form a survival group large enough to defend yourselves. You may have more success joining your survival group with a local church group or community group or some other band to increase your numbers. The only way you will be able to do that is to store enough food. Plan this out carefully. How big is your optimum band size and how will you feed everyone? Remember, you can use the same tactics other groups will use... like confiscation of warehouses, if your numbers are large enough and you are quick enough. But, If your ultimate size gets too large it will become unwieldy and impossible to control or feed. This is a conundrum you need to give some thought to now.)

Consider this topic well because your group belief system will vary depending on how you form the group and who you let in. A church group will have to use different tactics than a biker club or a neighborhood watch. This will limit or shape your options and set the tone of everything you do. No church group is going to seriously consider cannibalism, for instance.

5. Raiding/Banditry. Raider bands are going to spring up everywhere. Some will start as low level looters and graduate into larger scale violence. Some, however will start out as systematic raiders. There are some very bad perpetrators out there and there will be even more once the prisons empty. In the short term, violence will be very lucrative.

Raiders will take casualties over time. They will also replenish their numbers somewhat, but fortunately these are mostly anti-social types and may have trouble integrating new members. The further you are from them at the start, the safer you will be, but they can hit you anywhere, anytime. I don't see a good solution for this other than sheer numbers or good OPSEC. They won't attack an obviously hard target. and of course, they can't attack what they don't know about. They have to win to stay in business, so they won't attack unless they feel they can win. Distance will spread out the number of groups and allow other survivors to thin their numbers in numerous gun battles. True raiders may not last long, but they are going to be a real problem in the short term.

I expect raiding to take two main forms. The roadside ambush and the home invasion. Home invasions are always dangerous and often brutal. If the raiders attack your home, they will try to take you by surprise and kill every combatant in the house before anyone can react. They will force every more at a very fast pace to prevent you from reacting. They may use some kind of distraction or disguise to gain surprise. Home invasion, carried out with professionalism and gusto is fairly
safe and easier than you would think. Expect to see some of them wearing body armor, dressed in police uniforms and carrying badges. (Some of them will have professional entry training...like SWAT and military). Failing at a stack entry, they may use CS gas to drive out the occupants. Failing that, they will use fire.

Waylaying travelers on the roads is very easy and safe. Cars are just too vulnerable to gunfire. The roads outside small communities could be very dangerous to travel.

Don't ever underestimate the vile depravity of human beings. Anarchy is the dirtiest word in the English language. Rape and torture may be common. I believe as food gets harder to find, many people will turn to cannibalism to sustain themselves. (I wish this were not true, but historically, it's very common.) I am not advocating cannibalism in any way, but In all fairness, cannibalism can greatly extend a group's supply base. There are a whole lot of people out there and people are made of meat. While easy targets are available, some groups may prosper for some months eating human flesh. It could be a fairly successful strategy for some groups. Beware. History of other collapses warns us that this may be common.

A longer term problem you should watch for is what I call "part time raiders". Historically, most raids have been conducted by young men in one community raiding a nearby community. This phenomenon won't happen overnight in most places but it will probably happen eventually unless somebody forms a central authority within a year or two.

6. Extortion. Outlaw bands will give way to professional armies in some places. Possibly with a core of military trained personnel, a hundred or more killers traveling together can extort more than smaller groups can steal. These groups will get larger as time goes by but they are doomed unless they can take over someone else s farmland and extort "taxes". You may see groups like this move in to agricultural areas and set up shadow governments, taxing all the farmers nearby... or selling protection. Anyone who doesn't play ball will be burned out. Expect them to use classic tactics like assassination, kidnapping, and terrorism to cowe the locals. Local governments are going to probably hire many thugs and enforcers too. Telling the good guys from the bad guys might get difficult. Anyone trying to take your food is probably a bad guy, but it might be worth your while to pay him off.

7. Hiding.
Some people are going to try to hide from the die-off. Hiding inside a city or suburbs (in my opinion) is not going to work. People are going to systematically search every building for food. You could conceivably scare off or outfight wave after wave of looters and finally be looted by a local government or burned out by a large gang or rioters. The fact that you are living there will be impossible to hide when they try to search your building, If you are there, you will eventually have to fight or surrender your supplies. Hiding in the suburbs is just not possible and staying in an apartment building (even if you band with the other occupants for mutual protection) will eventually get you killed.

Hiding in a rural area is possible, just because of the distances involved. The number of hungry mouths will be less in the country, but local citizens are still going to confiscate your "hoarded" food if they need it. Your best hiding place is in an area that will be defended by well-fed people. (but if you have a well-fed community defending you, you should really help them defend it, don't you think?)

The second best hiding place is a wilderness area with no roads or natural resources that someone will want. A wilderness hide site takes a lot of skills to pull off. Also, it is not sustainable without some planning and a lot of discipline. Essentially, this is hunkering down in a remote place and eating supplies you brought with you while you wait patiently for the teeming masses to die off. Living quietly in the wilderness, mostly underground is a hard way to live, especially in bad weather, but it could be your best chance to miss the die-off if you are healthy and have a solid set of outdoor tactical skills.

8. Bug out (presumably to a safe place). This is going to be very popular, even for people who have no place to go. Once the power is off and the sewage starts backing up, the cities are going to start losing people. The exodus may begin immediately or be delayed several days (depending on the scenario). Either way, the refugees will generally try to leave in family groups. They will mostly follow interstates, highways, state roads, and farm roads, in that order. Nobody (almost nobody) is going to just start walking in a random direction and go cross country. They will drive until they have to walk and try to re-supply along the way.

While there is order, the roads may be jammed with cars leaving the cities going nowhere. In practice, almost everyone is going to be driving out of the city with a definite destination in mind. Some relative, some small town they know of, etc. Most of these destinations are going to be just as bad as the ones they just left, but these will be desperate people. Many of them are going to seriously overestimate their vehicle range. (Traffic jams eat a lot of fuel, probably more than most people will plan for).

Most of those thousands of cars on the interstate are going to run out of gasoline in a matter of hours and wherever they finally run out, that's where the occupants are going to start walking. Of course most of them are going to pull off the highways and interstates just before they run out and mob every town along the highway. (This is a historic fact, proven by every hurricane evacuation we have ever attempted). I expect people to turn very nasty when they run out of fuel. When they cannot buy fuel or food, the towns along America's highways will be filled with armed, hungry desperate people who may kill for a gallon of gas or a drink of water. Sound like fantasy? Don't bet on it. It's happened even during regional crisis with help on the way. In a general meltdown, I expect lots of violence in small towns and strip communities along highways and especially interstates.

There may be long columns of desperate refugees walking the interstates, but I don't foresee this. Most people will congregate in towns along the route. It's difficult to predict what desperate people will do without knowing local variables. If there is a hopeful destination within perceived walking distance, I would expect a lot of foot traffic. Of course, there will be a large number of breakdowns, but probably no mass migrations on foot unless they are being chased by something like a fire or chemical spill etc.

PLANNING NOTE: If you wait too long to G.O.O.D. you won't make it. I believe G.O.O.D. movement of any kind is going to be very dangerous. Moving vehicles are just too vulnerable, and there are going to be a lot of desperate, armed people stranded on the roads. This specifically includes law enforcement. They are not going to let you drive by with a load of gas cans in the back when their patrol car is sitting empty. Get out early or don't try it.

9. Going on with your life and ignoring the crisis. I think this will be a very popular early response. Some people will still try to make it to work, just like they always have. Until the crisis really gets bad, you will probably see shopkeepers, lawyers, bankers etc trying to commute to work. I really hope the police and firemen do this for as long as possible--and garbage collectors and power workers too! In fact, this is probably our best defense against a general melt-down. If everyone would stay calm and keep trying to make the system work, our society could survive almost anything. (I am betting on the exact opposite).

10. LAMOE (LAst Man On Earth) of the wilderness.
Some people will grab their outdoors gear and head for the woods planning to live out of a rucksack and forage or hunt for their food. I include fishermen in this category. I expect the wilderness areas to be absolutely stiff with "sportsmen" who are going to try to camp their way out of trouble. Maybe not, but I have heard a lot of people talk about it. This is a losing proposition, but that's not obvious to everyone.

PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If you attempt to hide in a wilderness location, you are going to have to avoid these knuckleheads. Choose your hide site well.

11. Throw yourself on the mercy of the government. Another VERY popular option. America has become the land of the entitlement. This generation seems to believe the government is there to take care of them from cradle to grave. I expect lots of folks to gather around anything even remotely resembling government. This will only last while government offices are open, but it might allow formation of groups or bands that will later loot and burn the city.

12. Go nuts and start burning everything in sight.
It's happened before and will probably happen again. For some reason, arson seems to be some kind of release mechanism for unstable personalities. These folks are yet another reason to avoid urban areas. They won't last long, but they can cause a lot of damage in the short term.

13. Something else.
This is only a partial list of all the possible strategies people will use. If you can think of something, expect someone to try it. Look at your local variables and think about it.

EXPECTED SEQUENCE:
Tricky, but in general terms, I expect urbanites to hang onto their city as long as supplies hold out and then attempt a bug-out. Some, of course, are going to bug out almost immediately. Some will never bug out.

Most people are going to sit tight until they get hungry and then either attempt a bug-out or try to barter/beg/or loot food.
Looters will start looting as soon as they can get away with it. Their numbers will be fairly small in the beginning, but will grow as more people get hungry. They will continue until there is nothing to loot...then they will have to change strategies. The next strategy up the scale is raiding.

Most people will never make that transition to violence, but I estimate up to 5% of the total population will easily make that transition and another 10% are capable of doing it if they have more time to get used to the idea (and get hungry). These numbers are not really supportable historically, but I feel that they are very close to reality... just personal opinion. If I am right, that means even a city of 100,000 people could produce 5,000 potential murderers in a few days. That's a lot of bad guys.

Raiders, bandits and bad guys are going to prey on the weak until somebody establishes order or they run out of easy targets. This order will probably be in the form of locally formed polities (local governments and committees, neighborhood watches, and church groups.) Once we reestablish real order, most remaining raiders are going to try to change strategies. Some of them may join your church.

Unfortunately, the horrible die-off will encompass multiple years. It won't end until local communities reach equilibrium and produce as much food as they consume. That could easily take more than two years. (The first harvest after a major crisis is going to be a disappointing time for some communities.) Some of the starving polities (probably after the first harvest) may choose war over starvation and attack neighbors. Sounds really grim, but I call em like I see em.

Livestock mortality the first two years is going to be astronomical. People are going to have to literally allow other humans to die while they feed livestock. Also, they are going to be very valuable commodities and prone to theft.

Wildlife and fish mortality will also be very high. Everybody who sees a deer will attempt to kill it. After a year or two, I expect deer, bear and wild hogs to be nearly extinct in the Eastern US. Small game will also suffer huge losses to poaching and so will fish.

SO, WHAT STRATEGY DO I PLAN TO USE?

I live in a nice suburban neighborhood of a small town within 45 minutes of a large urban area. The area surrounding us is a poor rural agricultural area in Southern Georgia. My town is near a secondary line of drift from Savannah. Not the worst place to live, but not good either. In a slow slide scenario, I will stay in place, participate in the neighborhood watch and go to work every day. I even have plans to set up a soup kitchen, field bakery and water purification plant at a local church if needed. My plan is to make myself valuable to the community. If things get really bad, I have the ability to arm up to 6 others. I have enough spare stored food, equipment and weapons to do this and still be postured for plan-B.

Plan-B.
In the event of a TEOTWAWKI I intend to use several options. I intend to Bug out with a truck-load of supplies to a pre-selected wilderness area (within 15 minute ride of home), establish a hide site and wait out the carnage. (I have about seven months supplies for my family plus a couple of caches with extra food and weapons nearby for a total of roughly nine months of rough living. I believe our odds of remaining unnoticed for six or more months are very good while maintaining a fairly high standard of living. (Living this close to Savannah, this is the best plan I could come up with).

Why hide out? first, I have the skills, equipment and a good area. But mostly, I know myself. Having seen real hunger in Africa and the Balkans, I don't believe I have the emotional hardness to watch people suffer and die without joining them by trying to help. Hiding out and missing the die-off will be hard, but watching it happen (for me) is just impossible. I can't watch.

When things cool down, I will scout the area and attempt to barter my skills to local farmers or whoever is in power. (I have acquired quite a few barter-able skills over the years). So, if I show up at your retreat door six months after a collapse looking for work: don't shoot! It's just me! - JIR
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Last edited by jonas parker; 13-01-2010 at 07:27 PM.
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Old 13-01-2010, 10:52 PM   #2
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Thanks Jonas . Marked this for a read 2morrow. Looks interesting from my experience anyway

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Old 14-01-2010, 12:06 AM   #3
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Excellent post Jonas Thank you.
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Old 14-01-2010, 06:49 AM   #4
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holy crap Jonas parker , thats a lot of information but none the less well worth reading the entire lot .
I have had this chat in private with a couple of other enthusiastic survivalists on this forum .
The urgency of making small preps and the "need to know" basis of having this knowledge is far more than just important .

it would take much to destroy this weak and feeble system , for which me and a few others here know very well . the very reason why we keep pushing this info into the publics mind .

I do have a lot to say about this thread and will follow this reply with it .

thanks for this thread Jonas parker , a good thread indeed .

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Old 14-01-2010, 08:50 AM   #5
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This is an account of The Thirty Years War (1618-1648) Germany.
http://www.thearma.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=24069

If you read the thread, I think you might get a flavour of societal collapse.
Basically the only job was fighting somebody else and looting for supplies.

People are people, and react in similar ways,
so after you've read the COA Analysis,
pop along to thearma.org site and read the witnesses experiences.

Methinks it might be prophetic if the
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Old 14-01-2010, 10:47 AM   #6
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Jonas Parker , 1stly I apologise for how I have quoted the posts , they appear as though they are from you when indeed they are not . they are taken from the information that you found and thus it seems that the way I have quoted your post here that they appear to be from you , Sorry about that , I just thought I would make it clear to any reader that this information has not come from you self .
Also , where I say things like "you" I am indeed speaking ina general term and not implying any comments towards your self but am just replying in a casual way to the information .
lol -------it took me over an hour to read and comment as I go , o hope you find it entertaining as it is of truth but I also want people who read this post to remember , these are just comments and some of them are casual as well as in depth , some comments are harsh and strong whilst others are of a humorous nature .
after reading the post my self I have noticed a clerical error , some of my writing is in bold font . after spending so much time replying to such a brilliant but long thread I must admit , this bold writing means nothing in particular so I cant be bothered to correct it now so please forgive the lack of strength I now have with writers cramp lol.there is one important part that I did make in purple writing so that it sticks out though .

enjoy .



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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
Having spent a lot of years on military planning staffs, I can't help "war-gaming" scenarios. In short (as you know well) Course of Action (COA) development is a big part of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and is a fairly reliable way of looking at possibilities and choosing likely sequels, given scenarios. In effect, a way of "war-gaming" out the future. There are a number of horror scenarios that seem to me to be fairly probable and they keep going around and around in my head as I try to sequence them and assign probabilities to each one. I am haunted by the possible future, an occupational hazard for a professional planner. I sincerely hope our civilization outlives me because it's failure could be truly horrible.
As he said "truly horrible" .
yet this information just isnt getting through to some folks . Countless times some of us here ( including your self ) are trying to get this information across and to the up most annoyance IMO is that those who keep preaching that it isnt worth knowing or that we ( who do this ) are some how fear mongering , are indeed the actual people who will not only ;
be those who suffer , but end up being those who might be knocking on your door one day -----------or ------------knocking it down .
people just don't understand that when humans are faced with starving to death , they are capable of anything and that also means killing others . this isnt a horror story , its reality !
I mean , just to side step a small way , Captain Scott , the man who went to the north pole and returned alone all on his todd .
Are we to believe him when he said his companion left to face the cold snowy night all alone ?
or is there just the slight possibility , that due to his good condition , that instead of starving to death , captain Scott clubbed his mate over the head and ate him with a night cap of red wine ?
after all , we only have his word for it . he did return looking quite well for someone who was the only person to make it back , whilst starving to death .
funny that ah ? he was the only one who was strong enough to make it back yet he was one of the weaker people .
nuff said on that one .
but yes , if the system went down you can bet your bottom dollar that even what we consider to be good friends , will not act like it when faced with starvation . it is the way of nature .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
What about those totally unprepared? What are they going to do? There are many survival strategies open to the unwashed masses other than sitting down and starving to death.
yes but we know that they would rather wish to deal with it when the time comes and mostly dont care because of HD,TV, or their mortgage , or their career , what ever the reason is .
its all hogwash to them , why should they bother ? its all crap to them . ( until the time comes ) which is , why many will die at the hands of the truly profound ignorant .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
We all need to compare our own plans with these other strategies because I guarantee some of these strategies will be used by the teeming masses. When the power grid drops and the food shipments end, the average citizen is going to get a huge shot of reality.
They Guarantee ?
see , and that person is a professional . if they know it , then surely its true . It doesnt take much to understand how easily the masses will face death and starvation . not only that , it wouldn't take long before they do form gangs , and thats when one has to learn ------------------------to pull that trigger ! Granted , its better to run and hide ( lol ) not be there , and even better is not to be there before it gets to that stage .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
ASSUMPTIONS:
I am talking here about a total collapse situation, not a slow slide decline or regional disruption. You can pick your own favorite cause from an EMP event to a finance system failure. They all cause roughly the same sequence of events. The results of any catastrophic collapse could easily be worse than any fiction you have ever read. The worst case scenarios all result in disruption of services and quick spiral into anarchy, but leave most of the population alive and hungry. This is the stuff of nightmares.
mine is a constructed and planned massive war , maybe a fake planned nuke war , not because of terrorists , but because the PTB are seeing that people are asking to many questions and are ( at the same time ) finally coming together to make a statement that no more shit is to be taken . That scenario seems to me more probable than any .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
To recap our unprecedented bad situation: The vast majority of people live in urban or suburban areas near large population centers. They are poorly prepared for any emergency and completely unable to live self sufficiently. The food production systems that currently supply their food are fragile and subject to catastrophic failure. Most people's very lives depend on a fragile triad made up of the transportation network, power grid and finance system. All three of these systems depend on the other two and they are all three unbelievably fragile. (There are many dependencies, but I see these as the three key points of failure.)

Most people currently live shoulder to shoulder in unthinkable crowding. Once the triad of services breaks down, the vast majority of people will suddenly be living on a very limited amount of capital in the form of the tiny amount of consumables on hand in each city. Once the Evian is gone and the toilets don't work, they will have no way to get drinking water or even dispose of their own sewage. They are literally less than a week away from serious acute hunger. (This sums up nicely the reasons to "GOOD" or "Get Out Of Dodge" as the old cowboy movie script writers put it, if you're in a big city - JP)

This situation will not get better unless the government is able to restore critical systems very quickly. The odds of restoring order get worse the longer the crisis lasts as the teeming masses start migrating and civil order disintegrates. Assuming the government fails, the countryside cannot feed the population of the USA without modern fuel, finance, power and distribution systems in place. Using 19th century techniques (where that is possible), the farmland in the USA cannot begin to feed everyone. (Europe has the same problem). In short, people are living where there will be no resources and farmland (and farmers) will be overtaxed just to support locals. We don't have the capital goods (horses, tack, hand plows, tools, seeds etc ) or skills to go back to old farming methods quickly. The math points to a die-off larger than anything recorded in history. Did I miss any main points?
When people are bunched up like cattle , living on top of each other , depending on a pathetic system full of holes and weaknesses , damned right it wouldn't take much more than a w eek before folks get angry !
and they wont starve quietly either , which is why mees thinks villages will soon be over run by gangs and looters alike .
killers too . History is written full of these situations . a lot of wars are based around these situations .
take WW2 for instance . yes we all know what a bad man Hitler was , but do you know why he hated the Jews so much ?
he hated the Jews because most businesses were run by Jewish people and the Germans faced being ( as he saw it ) slaves in their own country . faced with being a poor nation of people , and a growing population , Hitler thought that some had to be done . the result is all history .
Britain was the same before WW1 . America , Australia , India , its all there . rape , murder , pillage , destruction .
take ya pick , it comes with a full package of hell .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
AVAILABLE STRATEGIES:
This is not an all inclusive list. People are going to try all of these concurrently. I expect to see a general sequence of strategy choices, but it's not iron clad. While you would expect it much later in the crisis, you might run into a professional army on day one! The interplay of each strategy with the others is also hard to predict. People are going to try other things too (things that I haven't thought of). Local variables will effect how each strategy plays out and what events are likely to occur. The interplay of all these activities is where my analysis breaks down in complexity. You have to evaluate them with local variables, so generalizations can only go so far. I believe people will try all of these strategies. Some of them will work, but most of them will fail. There are only so many resources.
which is why when folks come knocking on your door for food , they will ask you for it , but if you give them the wrong answer and they suspect that you lie , they will be fully prepared to take any supplies by force , and killing you might be part of that situation . they wont care once their tummy is full . OK I am sure that some will pray for forgiveness , to make them self feel better , but once the aching tummy doesnt hurt anymore , give it 5 minutes before they start smiling again .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
1. Begging/bartering. This is probably the first strategy you will encounter. Begging will go on until the very end. This strategy is open to everyone. It will work better for weak individuals, but ultimately, charity is going to dry up as resources get tighter. The vast majority of people who depend solely on begging will ultimately starve to death. (Unfortunately, most people will beg, barter, steal and kill, in that order. Even a single mother may cut your throat to save her children.)
Yep , mainly that order .
the single mother situation , well I Dont blame her . she is surely prepared to accept the guilt and punishment for her sins , as long as her loved child survives . It is the sacrifice that some adults are prepared to make . It was Jesus who made the ultimate sacrifice , he went to hell to save humanity . this single mother has her own way and reasons for going to hell , to save someone else . I cant say I wouldn't do the same thing , I haven't faced that situation -----------yet .
Meees prefers to have a good guard dog or two . one could always tell the child what a good boy shep was and how he went to a good home after saving a child . lol. But that type of food supply too would soon run out . having to prepare , homus erectus alacart boginour just might have to be considered .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
PLANNING NOTE: In a total meltdown, the numbers will crush you if you let them. You have stored a finite amount of food, but there is an almost infinite number of beggars out there. Can you turn away a family with children who only want a bite to eat? You better think this out carefully and steel yourself for whatever you decide to do. If you give too many of your supplies away you will starve. If you turn everyone away, you may feel really bad. Think about it. How are your wife and kids going to react to begging? Watching a die-off is going to be tragic.
The ultimate test that I would hate to face , but when considered , guilt ( of saying no to a family ) may be the price some of us have to pay for the comfort of knowing that our own child has one more meal .
Unfortunately , this situation is an ultimate nightmare , one I would not like to be faced with . Children are indeed my weakness and most adults would agree with me on this one . what this situation actually gives is the choice between your child , or a child that you do not know ( maybe ). To which makes this situation more probable , one day , it might be you or I , and the person we ask , will be looking at our child or children , making that same decision , IE , facing the prospects of feeding their own child , or allowing a child to die that they do not know . What a nightmare .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
a. Bartering services. This could be prostitution or offering to act as security guard. This is actually a viable strategy for anyone with end-of-the-world useful skills. Find someone (or preferably a community) with food and sell yourself. If you have military training and equipment or specific skills, this could work. I don't expect all the doctors to starve.


this is why i took up electrical engineering , mechanical engineering , building skills , etc etc , and with my slight paranoia , and part military training from years back , selling my self could be a good idea . i would consider going on "The game" but feel I might end up having to pay folks for giving them services lol .
but yes , all that above quoted comment is true . skills pay .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
2. Stealing/looting. This is a "no-brainer" once law enforcement breaks down. Even while there is some order, people are going to steal anything they can get their hands on, even at the risk of being hurt or killed. If we drop into anarchy, expect crowds of hungry people or "professional rioters" to sweep the city streets. As the public-access shops and warehouses begin to empty, crowds may move into residential areas for a while, but I don't expect this to last long. Big crowds will probably disband completely when resources become more scarce or they have to travel further to get to them. A warehouse of food or shopping center near the inner city may support this behavior, but a suburban neighborhood 10 miles away won't. Residential areas within cities may be in serious peril. The closer you are to densely populated areas and/or poor areas, the more peril you face. Once the big flash-crowds disappear or people start to forage in the suburbs,
small groups will splinter off and begin raiding (see item #5 below).
yep , even villages will end up being the victim of this . One must be prepared either to stand up and fight , or bug out .
the stand up and fight situation needs a lot more preps than usually considered . thus unless you have a fantastic arsenal and an almost endless prep of traps and booby traps , its best to bug out .not only that , one doesnt want ones own children to make a bad mistake and forget where traps and booby traps are set .
the idea of a whole family bugging out is slightly different to that of a couple or a single person . A single person or a couple can run and hide , but a family can NOT !
A family's tactic would have to be ---------------just "HIDE". especially if small kids are in that family and cant RUN as fast as the adults , thus "STEALTH" and "CUNNING" is the answer to this situation .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
There will also be a lot of solitary (or small groups) burglars and sneak-thieves. If you keep chickens in your yard, watch your neighbors closely. If you plan to go to work and leave your house empty, it may be looted while you are away. Gasoline tanks without locks will be prime targets for night visitors (and gasoline tanks with locks will probably just be drilled rather than siphoned - JP). Suburban gardens are prime targets. This applies to slow-slide declines too. (And this is a good reason to own a dog - an "grid-independent alarm system" - JP)
This is why it is essential to create small groups / parties of folks .A homestead has more chance of security of 3 women or 2 women look after 4 kids than a single women protecting 2 or 1 child . thus if you can , it is better to find like minded knowledgeable folks who know the score to stick together because 2 homes defended by one adult each are more likely to be crushed etc but having a few or a couple of adults in 1 house stands more chances of being defended .
Thus , maybe at some point , the consideration of sacrificing supplies for security might have to be the thing at the time .It is also the reason why learning self defence and environmental awareness is a good idea because using the two concepts together can make one hell of a security guard or security defence .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
Beggars can turn into looters quickly if nobody is watching. If nobody answers a door, they may try to break a window. The suburbs may be swamped with beggar/looters. As they get more desperate, looters will get bolder and more dangerous. The further out of town you live the safer you will be from this group. Of course, the more isolated you are, the more vulnerable you are to raiders.
indeed .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
3. Wait It Out.
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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
Some people will sit tight and wait for things to somehow return to normal. Most people who have food and other resources will try to live on them and wait it out. If they stay in small family groups, they will be easy prey for mobs or raiders. Still, I expect most urbanites will do this until they are almost out of resources...then they will join the beggars and looters. This group will grow smaller every day and swell the numbers of looters.

AsI said , it will depend on whats happening at the time . What I think is that ----------what happens if one shuts ones own home off from all contacts etc , not allowing friends in or Conrad's in for a survival group at the exchange of food for security ?
once all supplies have run out , how would a father protect 3 children and a woman on his own ? the supplies ( unless you have 10 years or more ) would sooner or later run out , and with all allies split and apart from each other , they stand less chance of survival IMO . since the food and supplies will sooner or later run out , IMO its best to make allies long before the going gets crap .
Unless one has a massive house and land set back , way back out of sight etc full of a governments idea of stocks and supplies , then supplies will eventually run out and having Allies to group with will pay off . Thing is this , once supplies do run out , what ya gonna do ? one might well have to --------------------------borrow a massive food store of types them self .
lets just say stocks have run out , and a small group have established them self . what are they going to do ?
they are of course gonna have to go out and hunt for food them self . if they found a massive warehouse out in the middle of nowhere ( as if ) they would have to take it and defend it . or they could move some supplies out of the way and make a small safe camp full of food and medical supplies etc but sooner or later , even good survivalists might have to take matters in their own hands . after all , survivalism is what it says on the tin , survivalism .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
4. Banding.
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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
Almost all people will band together for mutual protection and support. How well this works depends on many factors, but ultimately the only safety anywhere will be provided by numbers. Single survivors will get swallowed up quickly.
YEP .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post

a. Banding by family unit.
This is the basic family group and will be the the first and most common grouping. These groups are small in size but very cohesive. Most families will quickly band with other families into larger groups. The ones who don't will be easy prey.
again , YEP.

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
b. Banding by geography. Neighborhoods will try to form bands for mutual protection. Neighborhoods will try to do this, but historically, this is often not very effective, especially if the distance between neighbors is large. Sharing of resources within neighborhood bands is spotty and as individuals run low, they tend to leave. Rural neighborhood watches are doomed by small numbers, and urban neighborhood watches are doomed from having too many people.
I can imagine it now , villages sticking together -----------for a while , but then there is always going to be that big bully , and those who are bullied , setting up their own little cliques and every one doing what the big mans says .
a sticky situation if ever you could be stuck in one .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
Populations of small towns will band together to put up road-blocks and keep from being overwhelmed. This is the only way most small communities will be able to survive, even if they are capable of supporting themselves by farming. Unless they band effectively and very quickly, they are doomed to be overrun by refugees or raiders. Even the communities who quickly band together may get soft-hearted and let in too many people to support. I think pitiful refugees are more dangerous than raiders. It's a rare American who can watch genuine suffering and not try to help. This is especially dangerous if it looks as though the situation could improve and things go back to normal. If there is hope of getting help from outside the community, most people are inclined to save as many others as possible. I feel that this issue will doom many small communities.
yep , the best part of huma nature can also be its demise .just look at what has happened in Europe . We opened the doors to those we call eligal imagrants through our good nature of leaving the door open . even some ( not all ) imagrants ------break the law , stealk credit cards and ID , fraud and steal . I mean , its happening right now all around us . let too many folks in , and guarentee some of them will stab you in the back when its turned .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If your plans include banding with a farming community, you must take steps immediately to close off the flow of refugees into the area. Convincing others to take steps this drastic will be hard or even impossible, especially early in a crisis. Closing your community and isolating it may very well be impossible. If it is, you are at the mercy of fate and geography. You had better have a plan-b.
oh yes indeed . in bad situations many people are unable to grasp the ergency of reality in its early stages .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
c. Banding by profession. Cops, medical workers, emergency workers, soldiers, and perhaps factory workers may band with co-workers. You will especially see this behavior with professional military groups. Beware of military installations in a total breakdown! You have a lot of very young, very scared and highly trained young men with no families there. It might get very dangerous to be near a military town if the government totally disappears. (In a slow slide disaster or regional disaster Army Towns are perhaps the safest places to be, but once the chain of command disappears, watch out.)
and eventually the chain of command falls , it always does .
Oh yes , and women had better face this fact too ! dont be a fool ! military towns and small military holds will be full of fully trained , brilliantly equipped young frightened men ! women beware !
also , women can become a commodity under such cercumstances , so beware all you men and women !

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
d. Banding by religion. This is perhaps the easiest, most effective band to join, since the churches already congregate groups of like-minded people within a small area. Religious bands will probably be the basis for "small community group banding" and are usually the strongest bands possible to form on short notice. All the church groups in an area or a town will likely band together and put on the mantle of "local government". I anticipate local churches forming the backbone of most local governments. They will be equipped with arm bands and represent "legitimate" government when they come to loot your supplies. Joining one of these bands will be a good survival strategy for many people, but in a total collapse, they are very likely to keep as many people alive as possible until they run out of resources and then starve together. Expect to see local polities formed from church groups going to war as resources get scarce. They will go after both looters and hoarders. Fascism in America will probably arrive carrying a cross. (Fascism in America will more likely arrive wearing a blue beret or carrying a Koran - JP)
Blue Berrets ? with fascism ? sounds rather like our united nations peace keepers to me .
As for many ( not all ) fooled religouse folks who will band up under legitimate govenrment aprovals , yes they will say its their right , or gods will for the greater good . again ----------sounds like western bullshit peace keeping crap to me .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
e. Banding by racial or ethnic group. You will see racially or ethnically pure groups in some regions. This could be very important factor in places like Los Angeles or New York almost immediately and may take precedence over geography or religion. It's an ugly thought, but being the wrong color may be a death sentence some places. (Ironically, I don't expect any serious racial tension in the deep South.)


yep , little tiny Jehadis and holy wars .
warning -------beware the religouse folks , they are dangerouse .
OK , i am religouse just a touch but that doesnt stop me from seeing just how easily lead they are when the word "GOD" is meantioned .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
f. Banding by gang or club affiliation.
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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
Not only urban gangs and bikers, but also gun-clubs, country clubs, and survival groups fall into this category. Some clubs will obviously not band effectively in an emergency (like a yacht club for instance), but you can bet the Aryan Brotherhood will cleave together like real brothers. Your survival group, can form a strong group if you have like minds and have clear plans for how to band, where to meet etc.
agreed .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
(PLANNING NOTE: Unfortunately, you are very unlikely to be able to form a survival group large enough to defend yourselves. You may have more success joining your survival group with a local church group or community group or some other band to increase your numbers. The only way you will be able to do that is to store enough food. Plan this out carefully. How big is your optimum band size and how will you feed everyone? Remember, you can use the same tactics other groups will use... like confiscation of warehouses, if your numbers are large enough and you are quick enough. But, If your ultimate size gets too large it will become unwieldy and impossible to control or feed. This is a conundrum you need to give some thought to now.)
In desperate times , desperate measures are needed and considering these alternatives just might pay off .
needs must in a survival situation . One might even have to consider joining big brothers band of brothers .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
Consider this topic well because your group belief system will vary depending on how you form the group and who you let in. A church group will have to use different tactics than a biker club or a neighborhood watch. This will limit or shape your options and set the tone of everything you do. No church group is going to seriously consider cannibalism, for instance.
lets face history and facts . Most churches will not resort to canibalism , granted , but the odd small group might just think its Gods will to provide food from the shells of the sinners who have passed on .
the greater possabilities are that they will not and it stands to reason but there is always a rogue group somehwere .

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5. Raiding/Banditry. Raider bands are going to spring up everywhere. Some will start as low level looters and graduate into larger scale violence. Some, however will start out as systematic raiders. There are some very bad perpetrators out there and there will be even more once the prisons empty. In the short term, violence will be very lucrative.
one must be prepared to pull that trigger .

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Originally Posted by jonas parker View Post
Raiders will take casualties over time. They will also replenish their numbers somewhat, but fortunately these are mostly anti-social types and may have trouble integrating new members. The further you are from them at the start, the safer you will be, but they can hit you anywhere, anytime. I don't see a good solution for this other than sheer numbers or good OPSEC. They won't attack an obviously hard target. and of course, they can't attack what they don't know about. They have to win to stay in business, so they won't attack unless they feel they can win. Distance will spread out the number of groups and allow other survivors to thin their numbers in numerous gun battles. True raiders may not last long, but they are going to be a real problem in the short term.
In this situation Gorillar tactics are the best . it doesnt matter if your in a homestead or running and hiding . the "Hit and run" tactic is the most affective . you hit one and hide , or stay defending etc . the hit and run tactic works like this .
Injure a member of a gang , injure as many as possible if necessary but dont kill ! an inured person requires another person or two people to carry them off the battle field . this deminishes numbers and resorces for a while .
lets just say that there are about 20 big bad men lurking around sizing up ones homestead . ( eeek ) one must be fully switech on , knowing all the weaknesses and strengths of ones homestead and if one has been switched on from the begining , one would have made security better on the weak spots . anyway back to the fight .
Say one had the means to a crossbow or gun .
shoot if you have the skill , 2 or 3 men in the leg , this then requires another 3 to 5 people to carry them off to a short distance for safety . thats 8 people you have now got rid of for a short time , whilst they go one can always try for another 2 or 3 injuries .
if one does have the time , the skill and a bit of luck , one might be able to kill off ( now is the timing ) another 3 people . the injuries and damage done during that time would confuse and frighten the gang , and maybe they might just stay away afterwards because all they will think is what a bad time they had , whilst not recognising that only 3 people died and a few got injuries that could be taken care of by a good medical mind .
The psycology of fighting in the battle field is also a good thing to start thinking about during these times .
just a thought on this idea meees thinks .

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I expect raiding to take two main forms. The roadside ambush and the home invasion. Home invasions are always dangerous and often brutal. If the raiders attack your home, they will try to take you by surprise and kill every combatant in the house before anyone can react. They will force every more at a very fast pace to prevent you from reacting. They may use some kind of distraction or disguise to gain surprise. Home invasion, carried out with professionalism and gusto is fairly
safe and easier than you would think. Expect to see some of them wearing body armor, dressed in police uniforms and carrying badges. (Some of them will have professional entry training...like SWAT and military). Failing at a stack entry, they may use CS gas to drive out the occupants. Failing that, they will use fire.
yep , meees knows this tactic very well indeed , its what I call the refocus technique . Ninja also use this . this tactic was also mentioned in funny as it sounds batman the begining when he was training in the mountains . the government also use this tactic in special forces training .
fuck the swat teams !
I have ( not in place yet ) the ultimate ---------"you cant get in my home" with out a bloody tank ---tactic .
doors , wondows , all thought of ! roof tops , thought of and infultration from next doors walls in the attick space .
all though of .
yes I am hardly Rambo but "bring it on you fkers ! !
and you neednt think that just killing folks quickly will be just the only game they might play . raping young girls and women might also be on their egender -----------before they end up killing them , so understand this ---------these are the horros you might face , so stand up , look the truth in the face and fear not , stand your ground and fight for your loved ones life as though every moment is the last , because thats the strongest concept that will keep you and your loved ones alive .
ignore this fact at your own peril and your family's too .
as the king of sparta said on that film the "300"
take from them EVERYTHING ! and give them "Nothing" .
tracker says
bring it on ! you've come to the right place , because here you'll see no mercy !
or -- yep come inside ( whilst thinking --------- meees thinks , see the menue ---------raiders alacart or looters and gangs soup lol ) walk this way .

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Don't ever underestimate the vile depravity of human beings. Anarchy is the dirtiest word in the English language. Rape and torture may be common. I believe as food gets harder to find, many people will turn to cannibalism to sustain themselves. (I wish this were not true, but historically, it's very common.) I am not advocating cannibalism in any way, but In all fairness, cannibalism can greatly extend a group's supply base. There are a whole lot of people out there and people are made of meat. While easy targets are available, some groups may prosper for some months eating human flesh. It could be a fairly successful strategy for some groups. Beware. History of other collapses warns us that this may be common.
I hate the idea of canibolism too and dont condone it , but I am a realist hence my comments .yes humanity can be descusting at times too and if its for survival ,believe me , the guilt ends when the tummy feels good , history and human nature has proven that time and time again .
reality has shown us , this does happen -----------just ask Captain Scott .


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A longer term problem you should watch for is what I call "part time raiders". Historically, most raids have been conducted by young men in one community raiding a nearby community. This phenomenon won't happen overnight in most places but it will probably happen eventually unless somebody forms a central authority within a year or two.
part time raiders , the gorrilar tactics , small and partial . the "unexpected equasion" is what i call this one .

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6. Extortion. Outlaw bands will give way to professional armies in some places. Possibly with a core of military trained personnel, a hundred or more killers traveling together can extort more than smaller groups can steal. These groups will get larger as time goes by but they are doomed unless they can take over someone else s farmland and extort "taxes". You may see groups like this move in to agricultural areas and set up shadow governments, taxing all the farmers nearby... or selling protection. Anyone who doesn't play ball will be burned out. Expect them to use classic tactics like assassination, kidnapping, and terrorism to cowe the locals. Local governments are going to probably hire many thugs and enforcers too. Telling the good guys from the bad guys might get difficult. Anyone trying to take your food is probably a bad guy, but it might be worth your while to pay him off.

yep indeed this is where the tracker tactics come handy .
to the commnities of the church , I am an ignorant know nothing church goer who does only what God tells him too . has been useless most of his life and knows nothing .
to the army folkI am a reservist ready to serve with no political agender .
To small town communities I am an engineer and security guard .
To looters and gangs I am a fkn formidible foe to be reconned with and never liked the system . fk the law .
To small holds I am a meeger refugee .
but inside --------------------I will seek out and destroy the evil ones , those up top that kill the inoscent , working my way through the ranks with cunning , psycology and double think tactics , I will survive , and clean up along the way too .
such is my way .the idea is to be meek inplaces , and strong in others . never let too much out .
look , anylise , stay low , work carefully and in those cercumstances , work alone . that way , no one blabbs for the sake of gaining alegences .

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7. Hiding.
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Some people are going to try to hide from the die-off. Hiding inside a city or suburbs (in my opinion) is not going to work. People are going to systematically search every building for food. You could conceivably scare off or outfight wave after wave of looters and finally be looted by a local government or burned out by a large gang or rioters. The fact that you are living there will be impossible to hide when they try to search your building, If you are there, you will eventually have to fight or surrender your supplies. Hiding in the suburbs is just not possible and staying in an apartment building (even if you band with the other occupants for mutual protection) will eventually get you killed.
Yep , stand strong for a while but know when to "bug out" .

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Hiding in a rural area is possible, just because of the distances involved. The number of hungry mouths will be less in the country, but local citizens are still going to confiscate your "hoarded" food if they need it. Your best hiding place is in an area that will be defended by well-fed people. (but if you have a well-fed community defending you, you should really help them defend it, don't you think?)
yep !
until its time to bug out again .

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The second best hiding place is a wilderness area with no roads or natural resources that someone will want. A wilderness hide site takes a lot of skills to pull off. Also, it is not sustainable without some planning and a lot of discipline. Essentially, this is hunkering down in a remote place and eating supplies you brought with you while you wait patiently for the teeming masses to die off. Living quietly in the wilderness, mostly underground is a hard way to live, especially in bad weather, but it could be your best chance to miss the die-off if you are healthy and have a solid set of outdoor tactical skills.
yeah , like looting lol.

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8. Bug out (presumably to a safe place). This is going to be very popular, even for people who have no place to go. Once the power is off and the sewage starts backing up, the cities are going to start losing people. The exodus may begin immediately or be delayed several days (depending on the scenario). Either way, the refugees will generally try to leave in family groups. They will mostly follow interstates, highways, state roads, and farm roads, in that order. Nobody (almost nobody) is going to just start walking in a random direction and go cross country. They will drive until they have to walk and try to re-supply along the way.
1st they will go to villages , then the wilderness .
one must think beyond the local woods for a safe place .

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While there is order, the roads may be jammed with cars leaving the cities going nowhere. In practice, almost everyone is going to be driving out of the city with a definite destination in mind. Some relative, some small town they know of, etc. Most of these destinations are going to be just as bad as the ones they just left, but these will be desperate people. Many of them are going to seriously overestimate their vehicle range. (Traffic jams eat a lot of fuel, probably more than most people will plan for).
Wazaap and my self made a thread about this . having a bug out bag and walking around the area to get to know it is the ultimate way to gain tactics for escape . all roads will be blocked by cars , so having a mountain bike and a bug out bag for early escape might pay off , but this is a limited tactic .

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Most of those thousands of cars on the interstate are going to run out of gasoline in a matter of hours and wherever they finally run out, that's where the occupants are going to start walking. Of course most of them are going to pull off the highways and interstates just before they run out and mob every town along the highway. (This is a historic fact, proven by every hurricane evacuation we have ever attempted). I expect people to turn very nasty when they run out of fuel. When they cannot buy fuel or food, the towns along America's highways will be filled with armed, hungry desperate people who may kill for a gallon of gas or a drink of water. Sound like fantasy? Don't bet on it. It's happened even during regional crisis with help on the way. In a general meltdown, I expect lots of violence in small towns and strip communities along highways and especially interstates.
aint that the truth of it .

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There may be long columns of desperate refugees walking the interstates, but I don't foresee this. Most people will congregate in towns along the route. It's difficult to predict what desperate people will do without knowing local variables. If there is a hopeful destination within perceived walking distance, I would expect a lot of foot traffic. Of course, there will be a large number of breakdowns, but probably no mass migrations on foot unless they are being chased by something like a fire or chemical spill etc.
hence why some small strong holds will whither quite quickly , especially near cities and towns when the SHTF .

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PLANNING NOTE: If you wait too long to G.O.O.D. you won't make it. I believe G.O.O.D. movement of any kind is going to be very dangerous. Moving vehicles are just too vulnerable, and there are going to be a lot of desperate, armed people stranded on the roads. This specifically includes law enforcement. They are not going to let you drive by with a load of gas cans in the back when their patrol car is sitting empty. Get out early or don't try it.
Yep , the law and order turn lawless and chaotic , such is the lesson learned from history .

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9. Going on with your life and ignoring the crisis. I think this will be a very popular early response. Some people will still try to make it to work, just like they always have. Until the crisis really gets bad, you will probably see shopkeepers, lawyers, bankers etc trying to commute to work. I really hope the police and firemen do this for as long as possible--and garbage collectors and power workers too! In fact, this is probably our best defense against a general melt-down. If everyone would stay calm and keep trying to make the system work, our society could survive almost anything. (I am betting on the exact opposite).

So true , lets hope ah .

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10. LAMOE (LAst Man On Earth) of the wilderness.
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Some people will grab their outdoors gear and head for the woods planning to live out of a rucksack and forage or hunt for their food. I include fishermen in this category. I expect the wilderness areas to be absolutely stiff with "sportsmen" who are going to try to camp their way out of trouble. Maybe not, but I have heard a lot of people talk about it. This is a losing proposition, but that's not obvious to everyone.
yep thats what I said , the country side will fill up with people .

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PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If you attempt to hide in a wilderness location, you are going to have to avoid these knuckleheads. Choose your hide site well.
yep .

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11. Throw yourself on the mercy of the government. Another VERY popular option. America has become the land of the entitlement. This generation seems to believe the government is there to take care of them from cradle to grave. I expect lots of folks to gather around anything even remotely resembling government. This will only last while government offices are open, but it might allow formation of groups or bands that will later loot and burn the city.

the hidden militray tactic .
take a strong hold and defend ones own ground . Leave others to kill them self off 1st , then take out the small gangs of looters etc . the final stage is taken and finally order can be established . if I can think of this , so can they .
Assaid before too , if one has too , make a deal with big brother . its called ---------------survival.

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12. Go nuts and start burning everything in sight.
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It's happened before and will probably happen again. For some reason, arson seems to be some kind of release mechanism for unstable personalities. These folks are yet another reason to avoid urban areas. They won't last long, but they can cause a lot of damage in the short term.

and if you catch one red handed , and with all that meat looking at you , one can always throw them on the fire they made for you , so that you can have arsonist stew .lol.
beware , there will be many an injustice that you might face , like gang rape , ( or worse ) or just plain and simple sadistic murder whilst they loot . yes these subjects are indeed hell on earth , the deeper hell is this , for your own childs safety and protection , you might have to just walk bye . God forbid this situation in any reality or world .

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Most people will never make that transition to violence, but I estimate up to 5% of the total population will easily make that transition and another 10% are capable of doing it if they have more time to get used to the idea (and get hungry). These numbers are not really supportable historically, but I feel that they are very close to reality... just personal opinion. If I am right, that means even a city of 100,000 people could produce 5,000 potential murderers in a few days. That's a lot of bad guys.
whilst I agree with the general term that many folks will not turn to violance , I think the numbers of violant folk will be much bigger than that .meees thinks 20%

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Raiders, bandits and bad guys are going to prey on the weak until somebody establishes order or they run out of easy targets. This order will probably be in the form of locally formed polities (local governments and committees, neighborhood watches, and church groups.) Once we reestablish real order, most remaining raiders are going to try to change strategies. Some of them may join your church.
Yep , one could be talking to a good person one minute , and a child murderer rapist the next and you might not know about it . so whilst you think your talking to a hard done by simple peace lover , they are sizing up what they might consider to be their next meal . one must be very careful of who they trust eventually .its happened before , and can happen to anyone anytime in these situations .
which is why in these situations ;
when one is entering a strong hold of types , Never automaticly just tern up with women or children .
leave them down the road somewhere safe if situations permit whilst you check out the locals of that strong hold . the ultimate nightmare would be to just walk up to astrong hold with a family , have the doors locked behind you , just to find out that the strong hold is full of 30 men you saw murdering and raping women 2 days ago whilst stealthfuly escaping bad lands .
although many strong holds will not be like that , there will always be the odd one or two , so if you wish to trade or enter a community ---------------- do it alone 1st ! size up the folks , count the women in that community , see if there are any kids , then make your judgement .


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Unfortunately, the horrible die-off will encompass multiple years. It won't end until local communities reach equilibrium and produce as much food as they consume. That could easily take more than two years. (The first harvest after a major crisis is going to be a disappointing time for some communities.) Some of the starving polities (probably after the first harvest) may choose war over starvation and attack neighbors. Sounds really grim, but I call em like I see em.
Yep , like I said , small communities will end up with their own cliques and go with the strongest mans ideas , and the week will perish . even good established communities can have their own little problems .

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Livestock mortality the first two years is going to be astronomical. People are going to have to literally allow other humans to die while they feed livestock. Also, they are going to be very valuable commodities and prone to theft.
this also includes wild life which is why plant foods , which are more abundant is probably the best tactic , mainly because simple masses also think in the "hunting" terms and will deminish wild life somewhat over time , but many folks wouldnt know a wild garlic plant from wild rosemary , so get the knowledge of plant foods .
there is food in them there hills .

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Wildlife and fish mortality will also be very high. Everybody who sees a deer will attempt to kill it. After a year or two, I expect deer, bear and wild hogs to be nearly extinct in the Eastern US. Small game will also suffer huge losses to poaching and so will fish.
yep again there is food in them there hills .

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SO, WHAT STRATEGY DO I PLAN TO USE?
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I live in a nice suburban neighborhood of a small town within 45 minutes of a large urban area. The area surrounding us is a poor rural agricultural area in Southern Georgia. My town is near a secondary line of drift from Savannah. Not the worst place to live, but not good either. In a slow slide scenario, I will stay in place, participate in the neighborhood watch and go to work every day. I even have plans to set up a soup kitchen, field bakery and water purification plant at a local church if needed. My plan is to make myself valuable to the community. If things get really bad, I have the ability to arm up to 6 others. I have enough spare stored food, equipment and weapons to do this and still be postured for plan-B.
[b]
Yep , this is the way to think ! be an ----------indesposable product of greatness . the simple folk can be eaten 1st lol.


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Plan-B.
In the event of a TEOTWAWKI I intend to use several options. I intend to Bug out with a truck-load of supplies to a pre-selected wilderness area (within 15 minute ride of home), establish a hide site and wait out the carnage. (I have about seven months supplies for my family plus a couple of caches with extra food and weapons nearby for a total of roughly nine months of rough living. I believe our odds of remaining unnoticed for six or more months are very good while maintaining a fairly high standard of living. (Living this close to Savannah, this is the best plan I could come up with).
Good idea .

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When things cool down, I will scout the area and attempt to barter my skills to local farmers or whoever is in power. (I have acquired quite a few barter-able skills over the years). So, if I show up at your retreat door six months after a collapse looking for work: don't shoot! It's just me! - JIR
Do you know who I am ? I'm the tracker , every C==T knows me , now let me in .



I do have trade , free looters and lentils soup , or arsonists alacart .




its to die for lol.










good thread Jonas parker , absolutely outstanding !

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Old 17-01-2010, 04:55 PM   #7
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Track, I enjoyed your analysis very much. "Prepping" isn't just having a stash of food and a couple of shotguns. There's a whole lot more to being really prepared!

"Semper Paratus!"
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Old 18-01-2010, 06:39 AM   #8
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well written and a good read, thanks.

personally, i would strive to get further from civilisation - to avoid any bombs, military sweeps and bio warfare/disease etc. preferably 50 miles from the nearest major town. neigh impossible to do that in england though.

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Old 18-01-2010, 11:02 AM   #9
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Track, I enjoyed your analysis very much. "Prepping" isn't just having a stash of food and a couple of shotguns. There's a whole lot more to being really prepared!

"Semper Paratus!"
I am glad you read it dude.

Took ages

you are right in a way though about other preps .

funny enough psychology will also play a large part and can prove quite useful in time like those .
Now for the simple minded readers , I am not talking about college psychology ,
"sit on my large recliner, talk to me it will do you good" -------psychology .
Im talking about the use of it coupled with brilliant acting and adaptation .Rather like inducing ones own multiple personalities . Becoming someone else so life like , so real , that should a close friend see you , they might not recognise you type adaptation . OK I am not talking about going around hurting inoscent folk , or being bad towards women and children ( NO WAY ) but I am talking about true stealth , true chameleonic ability to move from one type to another type adaptation .
if you aint got what it takes to mix , move around ,and appear to be inexpendable , your in shit street ! end stop !

You might think that this person is a cold hearted monster , well ---------maybe if I have to be but so far we can all count our selves lucky that this isnt the situation at hand .
I am a God fearing man , I do believe in something bigger than our selves , I do believe in universal justice . If Jesus Christ isnt true I do believe in what the story stands for , and like him , ( a good model for all men ) if I have to , I am willing to take on a sin or two , to go to hell , to save some folks .
thats about the truth of it.

You see , Life is recorded in time , what you have done will always "have been done" .
How is time going to record your time here ?
we are all going to die one day .
question is
"what way are you going ?"

you going down frightened ?
starving ?
being someones bitch ?
or even bum boy ?

or are you going to survive as liong as possible ? ( and if possible creating the odd string of justice along the way ).


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Old 21-01-2010, 08:39 PM   #10
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I am glad you read it dude.

Took ages

you are right in a way though about other preps .

funny enough psychology will also play a large part and can prove quite useful in time like those .
Now for the simple minded readers , I am not talking about college psychology ,
"sit on my large recliner, talk to me it will do you good" -------psychology .
Im talking about the use of it coupled with brilliant acting and adaptation .Rather like inducing ones own multiple personalities . Becoming someone else so life like , so real , that should a close friend see you , they might not recognise you type adaptation . OK I am not talking about going around hurting inoscent folk , or being bad towards women and children ( NO WAY ) but I am talking about true stealth , true chameleonic ability to move from one type to another type adaptation .
if you aint got what it takes to mix , move around ,and appear to be inexpendable , your in shit street ! end stop !

You might think that this person is a cold hearted monster , well ---------maybe if I have to be but so far we can all count our selves lucky that this isnt the situation at hand .
I am a God fearing man , I do believe in something bigger than our selves , I do believe in universal justice . If Jesus Christ isnt true I do believe in what the story stands for , and like him , ( a good model for all men ) if I have to , I am willing to take on a sin or two , to go to hell , to save some folks .
thats about the truth of it.

You see , Life is recorded in time , what you have done will always "have been done" .
How is time going to record your time here ?
we are all going to die one day .
question is
"what way are you going ?"

you going down frightened ?
starving ?
being someones bitch ?
or even bum boy ?

or are you going to survive as liong as possible ? ( and if possible creating the odd string of justice along the way ).


I found myself standing up as I read that

It depends on what kind of shit hits the fan as to what my response will be. In the event of snow or other inclement weather, power outage etc... I'm gonna stay put for as long as I can. I've got some food supplies, not enough, but plenty of the basics, flour, yeast, dried beans, jams etc and fortunately I'm a pretty good cook, skills that I am prepared to invest in the wider community if necessary. I bought lots of BBQ coal dead cheap last year after the washout summer. I'm also good at preparing game, rabbits etc....I don't really like eating it but I will if forced. My dogs (lurchers) are pretty good at catching rabbits, yes 3 is a bit sentimental but I'm keeping em 'Kay....

I have some good neighbours on the row of houses where I live, fit young men and women that are community spirited - or they will be with me bossing them about One of them is a former national kendo champion, so we be having a bit of that thanks. I'm a manless woman but I'm quite fierce and I'm a cracking aim with a catapult and my dogs sound vicious as hell from outside. I've got a very good supply of seeds, well packed in old sweet tins and as long as we could protect the gardens we have a reasonable growing space. Our fences would have to come down and go around the perimeter. Where I live was a working farm 100 years ago and it gradually got incorporated into the town and a row of houses was built onto it. I think if we worked together all the households on it could keep it fairly secure. Another good thing is your are only about 2 miles away from open country in any direction of Scunthorpe and I know the area like the back on my hand. I've got a horse that could probably be trained to pull a plough - as long as no one what's to eat her *digs out her catapult*
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Old 21-01-2010, 08:57 PM   #11
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I found myself standing up as I read that

It depends on what kind of shit hits the fan as to what my response will be. In the event of snow or other inclement weather, power outage etc... I'm gonna stay put for as long as I can. I've got some food supplies, not enough, but plenty of the basics, flour, yeast, dried beans, jams etc and fortunately I'm a pretty good cook, skills that I am prepared to invest in the wider community if necessary. I bought lots of BBQ coal dead cheap last year after the washout summer. I'm also good at preparing game, rabbits etc....I don't really like eating it but I will if forced. My dogs (lurchers) are pretty good at catching rabbits, yes 3 is a bit sentimental but I'm keeping em 'Kay....

I have some good neighbours on the row of houses where I live, fit young men and women that are community spirited - or they will be with me bossing them about One of them is a former national kendo champion, so we be having a bit of that thanks. I'm a manless woman but I'm quite fierce and I'm a cracking aim with a catapult and my dogs sound vicious as hell from outside. I've got a very good supply of seeds, well packed in old sweet tins and as long as we could protect the gardens we have a reasonable growing space. Our fences would have to come down and go around the perimeter. Where I live was a working farm 100 years ago and it gradually got incorporated into the town and a row of houses was built onto it. I think if we worked together all the households on it could keep it fairly secure. Another good thing is your are only about 2 miles away from open country in any direction of Scunthorpe and I know the area like the back on my hand. I've got a horse that could probably be trained to pull a plough - as long as no one what's to eat her *digs out her catapult*
you are exactly right .
It will all depend on what type of shite hits the fan and how , and how long it takes .
It could take a slow while to build up , it might come and go for a while then return .

Mees thinks this is a system wide failure scenario above

sounds like you are well clued up and think carefully before acting , well done to you , some one who has in a sense opened up a new can of worms .

what type of shite will hit the fan and how

maybe another good thread to start on .

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Old 21-01-2010, 11:32 PM   #12
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you are exactly right .
It will all depend on what type of shite hits the fan and how , and how long it takes .
It could take a slow while to build up , it might come and go for a while then return .

Mees thinks this is a system wide failure scenario above

sounds like you are well clued up and think carefully before acting , well done to you , some one who has in a sense opened up a new can of worms .

what type of shite will hit the fan and how

maybe another good thread to start on .

Excellent but I'm crap at thread titles so you'll have to make it, beside no one listens to women I'll meet you there because this thread is too important to hijack I look around at my fellow town folk most days and wonder what I'm going to do with them all. The older ones will be far more prepared, most of the ones I know have stacks of food put away. Wise old souls.
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Old 22-01-2010, 11:36 AM   #13
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Excellent but I'm crap at thread titles so you'll have to make it, beside no one listens to women I'll meet you there because this thread is too important to hijack I look around at my fellow town folk most days and wonder what I'm going to do with them all. The older ones will be far more prepared, most of the ones I know have stacks of food put away. Wise old souls.

No one listens to a woman ?

OK

there were ten soldiers absaling down a rope from an army helicopter . 9 men and 1 woman .
on the way down the rope began to give way and fray .
the comander at the bottom stopped dead in his tracks as did every one else .
he shouted "this rope is going to break , if one man person doesnt give their life and drop to the ground we will all die"
the woman hearing this shouted out a speech.
she quickly spoke about how she should give up her life because men are the superior sex and woman always sacrifice for men .
the men were so touched by this speech they all clapped .

never underestimate the power of a woman is the morral behind this story .

But I shall defo consider making one real soon .

this thread is good though isnt it .

much jedi in this subject meees thinks .

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Old 25-01-2010, 02:45 PM   #14
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bump .

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