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Old 10-07-2018, 04:24 PM   #15
st jimmy
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Default HPV-vaccines

I’ve found 2 literature reviews, with criticism on HPV-vaccines.

The incidence of cervical cancer in India is 27 per 100,000 women with a mortality of 15.2 per 100,000 women.
Cervical cancer has been rapidly declining in India over the past 2 to 3 decades, without screening or vaccination. A study from Mumbai showed an average annual decline in cervical cancer incidence of 1.8% between 1976 and 2005. The average annual decline was even steeper between 1991 and 2005 (2.8%).
The age standardized incidence rate of cervical cancer in Mumbai dropped from 41.1 in 1976 to 26.6 in 2005 (per 100,000 female population in age group 30-64 years).

Although both approved HPV-vaccines (Gardasil and Cervarix) are reported as safe, data from the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) in the US suggests that the rate of Gardasil-associated adverse reactions is 4.3/100.000 - 2.5 times higher than the death rate from cervical cancer.
The adverse event rates in the VAERS database are probably highly underestimated.

According to the official statistics…
About 90% of HPV infections clear “naturally”.
Of the remaining 10% - 85-90% will take a little longer to clear “naturally” in time.
Of the remaining 1.0-1.5% - only 5% progress to “higher grade” cervical cancer (CIN II/III). CIN II/III can also “naturally” resolve in time.
Of those remaining 0.050-0.075%, about 40% will progress to cervical cancer in 20-30 years.
So about 0.02-0.03% of the women that get infected with HPV eventually get cervical cancer. Not all of those women die.

Because there have been no trials at all with cervical cancer as an end point, because sample size and trial duration would be impractical – there is no evidence that any vaccine prevents cervical cancer.
The trial size and duration would be impractical… because cervical cancer is a very rare outcome of HPV infection! If cancer is such a rare outcome of HPV; a “surrogate endpoint” like HPV infection isn’t very relevant.

The longest available follow-up data from phase II trials for Gardasil and Cervarix are 5 and 8.4 years, respectively.
If we suppose that immunity becomes less within 20 years after vaccination, it seems unlikely that HPV-vaccines could prevent cancer.
Data suggest “immunity” for up to 5-8 years after vaccination. Even if this is true this doesn’t show that cervical cancer could be prevented 2 to 3 decades after vaccination.

In “developed” countries on the other hand, with cervical cancer screening, vaccination programs would only be cost-effective if the vaccine provides complete and life-long efficacy and there is at least 75% coverage of the pre-adolescent population.
This makes the cost-effectiveness of these vaccines in “developed” countries also very doubtful.

Sudeep Gupta et al – Is human papillomavirus vaccination likely to be a useful strategy in India? (2013):
(archived here:

In response to the many adverse events, Japan has suspended the HPV vaccination program in 2013.

Three different types of HPV-vaccines are currently sold: Cervarix (GlaxoSmithKline); Gardasil or Silgard (Merck&Co); and the newest Gardasil 9.
Most HPV vaccine randomized trials didn’t use inert placebo in the control group, but aluminium.

Only one double blind trial with an inert placebo for the quadrivalent HPV-vaccine was done. In this trial, 842 boys and 939 girls from 9 to 15 years: 1184 were injected with the HPV-vaccine and 597 with saline placebo.
The efficacy outcomes described boys and girls separately. The adverse events were displayed in a single group. This could have been done to hide something...
46.4% in the vaccine group compared to 44.5% in the placebo group experienced adverse events. That is almost half (even for the placebo)!
Serious adverse events occurred in 5 (0.4%) of the vaccinated subjects and none in the placebo group. These serious events were considered to be caused by something else than the vaccine.

The 4-year follow-up VIVIANE study compared 2881 healthy women older than 25 years injected with the bivalent HPV-vaccine with 2871 women injected with aluminium “placebo”.
There were more “symptoms” in the week after vaccination in the HPV-vaccine group (65%) than in the control group (58%). In the HPV-vaccine group 41% and in the aluminium group 36% of the symptoms were reportedly caused by the injection.
There were 14 deaths (later corrected to 13 as 1 was caused by breast cancer) in the HPV-vaccine group compared to 3 in the aluminium group. None of the deaths were believed to be caused by the injections.
Again many “symptoms” (also in the aluminium group)...

In another large study 7078 women were injected with the 4-valent HPV vaccine, compared to 7071 young women with the (new) HPV 9-valent vaccine.
Vaccine-related events occurred more frequently in the 9-valent group in the 4-valent group - 2086 (29.5%) vs 1929 (27.3%).
The 9-valent group had more serious adverse events than the 4-valent group - 3.3% vs 2.6%. Only 2 serious adverse events in each group were considered to be “vaccine-related”.
Severe injection site swelling was also more frequent in the 9-valent group - 3.8 vs 1.5%.

Pooled analysis of all trials comparing 29,953 healthy girls and women poisoned with bivalent HPV vaccine vs. hepatitis A vaccine showed significantly more symptoms in the HPV vaccine group.

M. Martínez-Lavínand L. Amezcua-Guerra – Serious adverse events after HPV vaccination: a critical review of randomized trials and post-marketing case series (2017):

These HPV-vaccines that cause so many adverse reactions have been approved!
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