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Replacement Migration


Skotfreezy

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Ok well I was searching around the UN Digital Library and came across a PDF titled:  Replacement Migration (Replacement migration : (un.org)

It goes into detail about how they want to flood countries with illegals and replace the current population and basically make them the minorities all on your dollar by 2050.

This is straight from their website I added the link up above in green so you can check for yourself, but I've also pasted the UK and US here along with the graphs. I know it's a read, but it is worth it to me, and I wanted to share with the community here. If this is the wrong thread to post this to please move it to the proper place.

 

 

 

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND

 

Past trends Whereas the total fertility rate increased steadily from the 1950's level of 2.18 children per woman to 2.81 in 1960-1965, this trend reversed in the decades afterwards, and fertility fell continuously to 1.78 in 1990-1995. At the same time, life expectancy increased during the entire period of 1950-1995 from 69.2 to 76.2 years for both sexes. Hence, the proportion of the population aged 65 years or older increased over the same period of time from 10.7 per cent to 15.9 per cent. At the beginning of the 20th century, at a time when both fertility and mortality were higher, the potential support ratio was 13.3 persons aged 15-64 for each person aged 65 or older. The ratio had declined to 6.2 in 1950 and declined further to 4.1 in 1995.

 

Scenario I

Scenario I, which is the medium variant of the 1998 United Nations projections, assumes a total of 1.2 million net migrants between 1995 and 2050. From 1995 to 2025, 40,000 persons would enter Britain annually and none after 2025. The overall population of the United Kingdom would increase from 58.3 million in 1995 to 59.9 million in 2025 and thereafter decline to 56.6 million in 2050 (The results of the 1998 United Nations projections are shown in the annex tables). The population in working age, aged 15-64 years, would increase from 37.8 million in 1995 to 39.2 million in 2010; afterwards there would be a continuous decline to 33.4 million in 2050. By that date 1.9 per cent of the total population would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants. The population aged 65 or over, on the other hand, would increase from 9.2 million (15.9 per cent) to 14.1 million in 2050 (24.9 per cent) in 2050. As a result, the potential support ratio would drop from 4.09 in 1995 to 2.37 in 2050.

 

Scenario II

Scenario II, which is the medium variant with zero migration, is based on the fertility and mortality assumptions of the medium variant of the 1998 United Nations projections, but without any migration to the United Kingdom after 1995. The overall population would decrease to 55.6 million in 2050, one million less than in scenario I; the population aged 15-64 years would decrease to 32.7 million, 700,000 less than in scenario I. The elderly population (aged 65 or older) would increase to 13.9 million in 2050 and the potential support ratio would be at 2.36. In general, there are only slight differences between scenarios I and II regarding the population trends of the country. Scenario III Scenario III keeps the population in the United Kingdom constant at its maximum of 58.8 million people in 2020. In order to do so, the United Kingdom would have to receive 2.6 million migrants between 2020 and 2050. In 2050, 5.5 per cent of the total population would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants. This influx would result in a population of labour-force age of 35 million in 2050, and the population aged 65 or older would reach 14 million in 2050, 24 per cent of the total population. The potential support ratio would be 2.5. 68 United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

 

Scenario IV

Scenario IV keeps the age group between 15-64 years constant at its maximum of 38.9 million from 2010 on. In order to do that a total of 6.2 million immigrants would be needed between 2010 and 2050, which would increase the overall population to 64.3 million in 2050. By that date 13.6 per cent of the total population would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants. The proportion of the elderly would be 22.9 per cent, and the potential support ratio 2.6 in 2050.

 

Scenario V

Scenario V keeps the potential support ratio at its 1995 level of 4.09. Keeping this ratio would require 59.8 million migrants between 1995 and 2050, slightly more than one million migrants a year on average. The overall population would reach 136 million in 2050, of which 80 million (59 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants. Discussion Net migration in the United Kingdom amounted to 660,000 persons between 1990 and 1998, an average of 73,000 persons per year. In 1990, the proportion of the total population who were foreign-born was 6.5 per cent. This is comparable to the numbers needed to be keeping the total population constant, 88,000 migrants per year, and to the proportion of the total population in 2050 who would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants, 5.5 per cent. However, the numbers of migrants needed to keep the population in working-age constant are about twice the level of the past decade. Figure IV.16 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and IV, the population of the United Kingdom in 2050, indicating the shares that are post-1995 migrants and their descendants. Scenario V, keeping the potential support ratio constant, would demand more than one million immigrants annually. This would greatly exceed immigration rates that the country experienced in the past. In absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the working-age to about 72 years in order to obtain in 2050 the same potential support ratio observed in 1995 in the United Kingdom, i.e. 4.1 persons of working-age per each older person past working-age.

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United States of America

 

Past trends The total fertility rate in the United States dropped from 3.45 births per woman in 1950-1955 to 2.02 in 1970-1975. Except for a temporary period during the late 1970s and early 1980s (when it hovered around 1.8), the total fertility rate has continued to be around two children per woman. Life expectancy at birth, meanwhile, has risen from 69.0 years in 1950-1955 to 75.7 years in 1990-1995. As a consequence of these changes, the proportion of the population aged 65 or older has risen from 8.3 per cent in 1950 to 12.5 per cent in 1995. And the potential support ratio declined from 7.8 in 1950 to 5.2 in 1995. As a point of comparison, the potential support ratio was 15 in 1900, when 4 per cent of the population was aged 65 years or older.

 

Scenario I

Scenario I, the medium variant of the United Nations 1998 Revision, assumes an annual net intake of 760,000 migrants per year between 1995-2050, for a total of 41,800,000 net migrants during the period. Accordingly, the total population of the United States is projected to increase continuously from 267 million in 1995 to 349 million in 2050 (The results of the 1998 United Nations projections are shown in the annex tables). By 2050, out of this total population of 349 million, 59 million, or 16.8 per cent would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants. The population aged 15-64 will increase slowly from 174 million in 1995 to 214 million in 2050, although not in a monotonic fashion. The population aged 65 or older will rapidly rise from 33 million in 1995 to nearly 76 million in 2050. As a result, the potential support ratio would decrease from 5.2 in 1995 to 2.8 in 2050.

 

Scenario II

Scenario II, which is the medium variant with zero migration, uses the fertility and mortality assumptions of the medium variant of the 1998 Revision, but without any migration to the United States after 1995. The results in this scenario are quite different from those of scenario I. The total population would increase to 290 million in 2050, which is 50 million less than in scenario I. The population aged 15-64 would rise from 174 million in 1995 to 192 million in 2010 and 2015 and then decline, returning back to 174 million in 2050. The population aged 65 or older would double from 33 million in 1950 to 68 million in 2050. As a result, the potential support ratio would decline to 2.6 in 2050, which is slightly below that presented in scenario I.

 

Scenario III

Scenario III keeps the size of the total United States population constant at its maximum of 298 million that it would reach in 2030 (assuming no in-migration after 1995). In order to keep the total population constant at that level, it would be necessary to have 6.4 million migrants between 2030 and 2050, which is an average of 319,000 migrants per year. By 2050, out of a total population of 298 million, 7.3 million, or 2.5 per cent, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants. 74 United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

 

Scenario IV

Scenario IV keeps the size of the population aged 15 to 64 constant at its maximum of 192.5 million that it would reach in 2015 (assuming no in-migration after 1995). In order to keep the working age population constant at that level, it would be necessary to have 18.0 million migrants between 2015 and 2050, which is an average of 513 thousand migrants per year. By 2050, out of a total population of 316 million, 25.0 million, or 7.9 per cent, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants.

 

Scenario V

Scenario V keeps the potential support ratio at its 1995 value of 5.2 persons aged 15-64 for each person aged 65 or older. In order to keep the potential support ratio constant at that level, it would be necessary to have 593 million immigrants from 1995 to 2050, an average of 10.8 million per year. By 2050, out of a United States total population of 1.1 billion, 775 million, or 73 per cent, would be post 1995 immigrants or their descendants.

 

Discussion

The official United States estimate of (documented) migrants into the United States from 1990 to 1996 is about 1.1 million per year. Thus, the past regular inflow into the United States is well above the number of migrants needed to prevent a decline in the total population or in the working-age population. Also under both scenarios III and IV, the percentage of post-1995 immigrants, and their descendants, in the total population of 2050 (2.5 per cent and 7.9 per cent, respectively) would be below the percentage of foreign-born that exists currently (9.6 per cent). Figure IV.18 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and IV, the population of the United States in 2050, indicating the share that are post-1995 migrants and their descendants. In absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the working-age to about 74 years in order to obtain in 2050 the same potential support ratio observed in 1995 in the United States, i.e. 5.2 persons of working-age per each older person past working-age.

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8 hours ago, Skotfreezy said:

Scenario V, keeping the potential support ratio constant, would demand more than one million immigrants annually. This would greatly exceed immigration rates that the country experienced in the past.

 

Yup, that's what they've gone for. I don't know why people talk about conspiracy theories it's all out in the open. 

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On 12/31/2023 at 6:50 AM, Mr H said:

Interesting. But demographic studies are the backbone of economic planning. So I do expect countries to do scenario planning for different situations.

 

I didn't read anything nefarious in this, but I did quick read.....

The invasion on the US boarder or other countries is the nefarious act to get the number like in Scenario V for the US: 

 

 "it would be necessary to have 593 million immigrants from 1995 to 2050, an average of 10.8 million per year. By 2050, out of a United States total population of 1.1 billion, 775 million, or 73 per cent, would be post 1995 immigrants or their descendants."

 

775 million immigrants POST 95' is double the population of citizens in the US now. They cant achieve these numbers unless its done illegally. Just imo. Happy New Year!

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57 minutes ago, Skotfreezy said:

The invasion on the US boarder or other countries is the nefarious act to get the number like in Scenario V for the US: 

 

 "it would be necessary to have 593 million immigrants from 1995 to 2050, an average of 10.8 million per year. By 2050, out of a United States total population of 1.1 billion, 775 million, or 73 per cent, would be post 1995 immigrants or their descendants."

 

775 million immigrants POST 95' is double the population of citizens in the US now. They cant achieve these numbers unless its done illegally. Just imo. Happy New Year!

Yeah. The numbers are needed so the economy doesn't collapse in the future. Us folks not reproducing enough to expand the economy. Whether that is intentional is a different question. But economic growth requires people growth.

Edited by Mr H
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4 minutes ago, Mr H said:

Yeah. The numbers are needed so the economy doesn't collapse in the future. Us folks not reproducing enough to expand the economy. Whether that is intentional is a different question. But economic growth requires people growth.

 

no its not about the economy. The poor, unskilled migrants are a burden on the economy. It's about destroying national identity and its also about screwing over whitey

Germany Puts Migration-Related Costs at Over $86 Billion Over Next Four Years

Merkel’s generous refugee policy could prove a boon to populist, anti-immigrant parties in 2017 election

July 1, 2016 1:00 pm ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-puts-migration-related-costs-at-over-86-billion-over-next-four-years-1467392402

 

1340.jpg

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EU should 'undermine national homogeneity' says UN migration chief

21 June 2012

_61034137_sutherland.jpg

Peter Sutherland's global migration forum brings together 160 nations to discuss policy
By Brian Wheeler
Political reporter, BBC News

The EU should "do its best to undermine" the "homogeneity" of its member states, the UN's special representative for migration has said.

Peter Sutherland told peers the future prosperity of many EU states depended on them becoming multicultural.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-18519395

 

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11 minutes ago, Macnamara said:

 

no its not about the economy. The poor, unskilled migrants are a burden on the economy. It's about destroying national identity and its also about screwing over whitey

Germany Puts Migration-Related Costs at Over $86 Billion Over Next Four Years

Merkel’s generous refugee policy could prove a boon to populist, anti-immigrant parties in 2017 election

July 1, 2016 1:00 pm ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-puts-migration-related-costs-at-over-86-billion-over-next-four-years-1467392402

 

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Not true Mac. If you have stagnant population economy can't grow and that article doesn't prove otherwise. It's an old article and specific to a one off experience in Germany where 4 million refugees entered the country all at once and is a cost analysis of this one off event. You need low skilled workers to grow the economy and you need children to continue to purchase goods in the future. Population shinks country is fkd.

 

I'm not saying there's no agenda here. What I'm saying is there is nothing innately nefarious about the original article and demographic planning. A country would be totally irresponsible if it didn't do any type of demographic planning 

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26 minutes ago, Mr H said:

Not true Mac. If you have stagnant population economy can't grow and that article doesn't prove otherwise. It's an old article and specific to a one off experience in Germany where 4 million refugees entered the country all at once and is a cost analysis of this one off event. You need low skilled workers to grow the economy and you need children to continue to purchase goods in the future. Population shinks country is fkd.

 

I'm not saying there's no agenda here. What I'm saying is there is nothing innately nefarious about the original article and demographic planning. A country would be totally irresponsible if it didn't do any type of demographic planning 

 

Not true mr H, all those migrants need housing, education, health care, sewage disposal, policing and all the rest and that can be paid for out of two ways: raise taxes or borrow and if you borrow then the national debt goes up and if the national debt goes up then the interest payments on that debt goes up which means the following year you have to pay even more which can be paid either through raising taxes or borrowing etc etc etc

UK national debt will continue to rise over next five years, says IMF

Wed 12 Apr 2023 16.35 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/12/uk-national-debt-will-continue-to-rise-over-next-five-years-says-imf

An ever-growing NHS budget could swallow up all of this week’s tax rise, leaving little for social care

Published on 8 September 2021

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/ever-growing-nhs-budget-could-swallow-all-weeks-tax-rise-leaving-little-social-care

Why is sewage released into rivers and the sea?

2 October 2023

Three of the biggest water companies are suspected of discharging sewage into the UK's waterways on dry days in breach of their permits, according to a BBC investigation.

England's Environment Agency is carrying out its own criminal investigation into potentially illegal discharges by all water companies.

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-62631320

Britain's education system is 'failing on every measure' - with 'shocking' regional disparities uncovered

One primary school in Nottinghamshire reported that some children arrived at school unable to say their own names and that 50% of their pupils in reception and nursery were not toilet trained.

Becky Cotterill

News correspondent @RLCotterill

Wednesday 15 June 2022 11:00, UK

https://news.sky.com/story/uks-education-system-is-failing-on-every-measure-with-shocking-regional-disparities-uncovered-12634175

Roads in the UK are so congested that they are making us less healthy and more lonely

https://inews.co.uk/news/environment/roads-uk-so-congested-less-healthy-more-lonely-1940265

 

The housebuilding crisis: The UK’s 4 million missing homes

https://www.centreforcities.org/publication/the-housebuilding-crisis/

 

Police to receive more than £15 billion to fight crime and recruit more officers

From:
Home Office and The Rt Hon Priti Patel MP
Published
17 December 2020
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/police-to-receive-more-than-15-billion-to-fight-crime-and-recruit-more-officers
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19 minutes ago, Mr H said:

I'm not saying there's no agenda here. What I'm saying is there is nothing innately nefarious about the original article and demographic planning. A country would be totally irresponsible if it didn't do any type of demographic planning 

 

the united nations was created by the people behind the central banks aka the rothschild cabal. The land for the offices of the UN in new york was donated by the rockefellers who also created the trilateral commission and the club of rome. david rockefeller was also the head of the council on foreign relations

 

if you flood workers into a country you have more people chasing the existing jobs which drives down wages, which benefits the super rich corporate socialists but screws the workers. This is why many old school, trade unionist lefties were against mass immigration because it screws over british workers

Stalling wage growth since 2008 costs £11,000 a year, says think tank

20 March 2023

By BBC Panorama

Fifteen years of wage stagnation has left British workers £11,000 worse off a year, according to research shared exclusively with BBC Panorama.

The Resolution Foundation, which focuses on low-to-middle income families, examined what wages might be today if growth seen before the 2008 financial crisis had not fallen away.

It also found typical UK household incomes have fallen further behind those in Germany. In 2008, the gap was over £500 a year, now it is £4,000.

But the Treasury says the economy is more resilient than many predicted.

In his Budget speech last week, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt acknowledged there is still enormous pressure on people's finances.

In recent months, wages have failed to keep up with rising costs, meaning that millions of Britons have, in effect, had a pay cut.

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1 minute ago, Macnamara said:

Stalling wage growth since 2008 costs £11,000 a year, says think tank

The Immigration Legacy of Tony Blair

May 10, 2007
By Will Somerville

Elected prime minister of the United Kingdom in May 1997, Tony Blair of the UK Labour party announced in October 2004 that he did not wish to stand for a fourth term. In effect, he had publicly announced his resignation, albeit with an extraordinarily long notice period. This finally came to an end with his resignation on May 10, 2007, which brought to an end over 10 years' service in Number 10 Downing Street.

Commentators have already leapt to define his time in office, but few have noted one of his legacies that will likely last at least a generation. Namely, Blair leaves behind an immigration system that has been fundamentally reshaped: migration is now "managed" to favor migrants coming for work and study.

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/immigration-legacy-tony-blair/

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30 minutes ago, Macnamara said:

 

Not true mr H, all those migrants need housing, education, health care, sewage disposal, policing and all the rest and that can be paid for out of two ways: raise taxes or borrow and if you borrow then the national debt goes up and if the national debt goes up then the interest payments on that debt goes up which means the following year you have to pay even more which can be paid either through raising taxes or borrowing etc etc etc

UK national debt will continue to rise over next five years, says IMF

Wed 12 Apr 2023 16.35 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/12/uk-national-debt-will-continue-to-rise-over-next-five-years-says-imf

An ever-growing NHS budget could swallow up all of this week’s tax rise, leaving little for social care

Published on 8 September 2021

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/ever-growing-nhs-budget-could-swallow-all-weeks-tax-rise-leaving-little-social-care

Why is sewage released into rivers and the sea?

2 October 2023

Three of the biggest water companies are suspected of discharging sewage into the UK's waterways on dry days in breach of their permits, according to a BBC investigation.

England's Environment Agency is carrying out its own criminal investigation into potentially illegal discharges by all water companies.

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-62631320

Britain's education system is 'failing on every measure' - with 'shocking' regional disparities uncovered

One primary school in Nottinghamshire reported that some children arrived at school unable to say their own names and that 50% of their pupils in reception and nursery were not toilet trained.

Becky Cotterill

News correspondent @RLCotterill

Wednesday 15 June 2022 11:00, UK

https://news.sky.com/story/uks-education-system-is-failing-on-every-measure-with-shocking-regional-disparities-uncovered-12634175

Roads in the UK are so congested that they are making us less healthy and more lonely

https://inews.co.uk/news/environment/roads-uk-so-congested-less-healthy-more-lonely-1940265

 

The housebuilding crisis: The UK’s 4 million missing homes

https://www.centreforcities.org/publication/the-housebuilding-crisis/

 

Police to receive more than £15 billion to fight crime and recruit more officers

From:
Home Office and The Rt Hon Priti Patel MP
Published
17 December 2020
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/police-to-receive-more-than-15-billion-to-fight-crime-and-recruit-more-officers

You assume there is no inflows the other way. I.e no taxes paid. No velocity of money filtered down from their spending... Do they not themselves by and use goods and services?

 

Let's put it a different way. How do you grow an economy with a shrinking population? The answer is you can't...

 

What I'm saying is not everything is an agenda.

 

If I'm an economist I have no clue about Klaus and agendas. And someone gave me the current population forecast. Then you would conclude that it needs to increase by other means. Which is what this report shows...

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1 minute ago, Mr H said:

You assume there is no inflows the other way. I.e no taxes paid. No velocity of money filtered down from their spending...

 

Let's put it a different way. How do you grow an economy with a shrinking population? The answer is you can't...

 

What I'm saying is not everything is an agenda.

 

If I'm an economist I have no clue about Klaus and agendas. And someone gave me the current population forecast. Then you would conclude that it needs to increase by other means. Which is what this report shows...

 

look at the facts. things are getting worse not better. Stop believing the narratives of the corporate socialists behind the UN!

The Effects of Immigration in Denmark

 

First, I briefly summarize statistics on the fiscal impact of immigration in Denmark, taken from an official government report. Second, I add my own analysis on violent crime conviction rates by nation of origin. Together they give a more complete overview of immigration in Denmark.

Net Financial Contribution of Immigrants in Denmark

 

Not all countries have formal population registers. However, Scandinavian countries in particular are well-regarded in this respect, having government databases storing comprehensive and high-quality data of the full populations. Denmark is especially interesting because it is the only Scandinavian country to have properly quantified the net fiscal impact of immigration based on register data. This analysis has been conducted and described in the official Danish government report, Immigrants’ net contribution to the public finances in 2018. The net financial contribution of a person is conceptually simple: their total contribution to the state finances, subtracted their total costs.

The report finds that the total net contribution in 2018 by native Danish people was +41 billion DKK. The contribution of immigrants and their descendants was net negative at -24 billion DKK (Table b). However, net contribution was highly heterogenous by group as will be illustrated in the following figures. The figures are taken directly from the report, with the minor tweak that I have translated the text to English. The first figure included here (Figure 2.7) shows the average net financial contribution at all ages by broad nation category: Danish origin, Western countries, MENAPT (Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan and Turkey), and other non-Western countries.

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The average net financial contribution of immigrants in Denmark by age and broad nation-of-origin category.

As is expected, children and the elderly are net negative contributors. To compensate for this net cost, it is necessary and expected that people in their prime working age have a sufficiently large net positive contribution. The next Figure (2.8) shows what the total net contributions are. On the whole, they find that Western immigrants (and their descendants, i.e., 2nd generation immigrants) have a small positive net financial contribution, whereas MENAPT and other non-Western immigrants and descendants have a net negative financial contribution.

Given the strong relationship between age and financial contribution, the analysis also considers age-adjusted figures. The next figure shows the actual net contributions as well as the age-standardized net contributions of immigrants and their descendants. Adjusting for age substantially changes the estimates of net contribution. This is because immigrants and natives differ in their age composition, with immigrants being disproportionately young adults.

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The actual and age-standardized average net contributions of immigrants and their descendants in Denmark by broad nation-of-origin category.

Lastly, the report also provides net financial contribution by immigrants of specific country of origin, which can be seen below. The list includes all countries of origin with at least 5,000 individuals in Denmark.

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The average net financial contribution of immigrants in Denmark by nation of origin. Only includes nations with at least 5,000 immigrants in Denmark. Estimates are not adjusted for age.

In general, net contributions are positive for Western countries and negative for MENAPT countries. For other non-Western countries, some have positive contribution and some negative. Unfortunately these nation-of-origin estimates are not adjusted for age. With that said, we know that adjusting for age would systematically lower these estimates (as demonstrated in Figure 2.8). Thus once adjusted for age, immigrants from Western countries, instead of being net positive in all cases, would probably be roughly evenly distributed below and above zero (the aggregate estimate is just barely above zero in Figure 2.8). MENAPT countries would go further into the negatives after age adjustments.

 

Violent Crime Convictions

 

Having summarized the results of the official government financial analysis, I now append with my own analysis on the topic of immigration and crime. According to Danmarks Statistik, there were 5,921 violent crime convictions in 2021, of which 71% (4,193) were committed by people of Danish origin and 29% (1,728) by immigrants and their descendants. In 2021, immigrants and their descendants represented 14% (817,438) and people of Danish origin 86% (5,022,607) of the total population of 5,840,045. Thus immigrants and descendants are overrepresented in violent crime convictions, being 14% of the population and constituting 29% of the violent crime convictions. This translates into immigrants and descendants having 2.5 times higher conviction rates than natives.

However, like financial contributions, convictions also exhibit great heterogeneity. Western immigrants and descendants were 5.0% of the population and accounted for just 3.8% of the nation’s violent crime convictions. Non-Western immigrants and descendants were 8.9% of the population and accounted for 25.4% of the nation’s violent crime convictions. Homicide is very uncommon in Denmark, but we see a similar pattern for homicide convictions. For rape convictions, the pattern is even stronger. The results for the period 2010-2021 can be seen in the figure below. For each group, it shows the population share and the share of total violent crime convictions, as well as shares of specific types of violent crime convictions, that can be attributed to each group.

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Population and violent crime conviction shares in Denmark in years 2010–2021 by broad ancestry category.

We can also convert these to conviction rates relative to that of natives. This can be seen in the figure below.

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Violent crime conviction rate ratios in Denmark in years 2010–2021 by broad ancestry category.

Overall, Western immigrants have violent conviction rates that are approximately 20% lower than that of natives, whereas Non-Western immigrants have approximately 3.5 times higher conviction rates than natives.

The heterogeneity can be analyzed at an even finer granularity. The Danish government agency Danmarks Statistik publicize the data necessary to compute the conviction rates by country of origin.

2

The figure below shows the results for the years 2010–2021 expressed in terms of multiples of the Danish rate.

 

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Violent crime conviction rates for immigrants in 2010–2021 by nation of origin expressed in multiples of the Danish conviction rate. Not adjusted for age or sex. Error bars are bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals.

At the bottom we see that several immigrant groups have conviction rates less than half of that of natives (Japanese immigrants manage to have zero violent convictions in this 12 year period). At the top, we see some groups having conviction rates >8 times higher than natives. However, none of the figures in this section are adjusted for age, which is a potential major contributor to the observed disparities. We will consider that now.

Accounting for age and sex

 

Crime rates vary greatly with age and sex. The rate of imprisonment for violent crimes in Denmark (averaged across 2010–2021) by age and sex is illustrated below. It goes without saying that violent conviction rates are highest in young males. Violent crime rates seem to peak in the late teens. At least in this data, the female peak (age 16) is earlier than the male peak (age 19), possibly reflecting the earlier female puberty (peak years marked with dashed lines).

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The rate of imprisonment for violent crimes in Denmark averaged across 2010–2021, by age and sex. The peak years are marked with dashed lines for males and females, respectively.

Further, the age composition of immigrants differs substantially from the native population (see below). Immigrants cluster disproportionately at ages with higher rates of violent criminality. For this reason, age is arguably the first and most crucial variable to consider when observing any disparities between immigrants and natives. The sex ratio of immigrants also occasionally deviates nontrivially from a typical approximate half/half balance. This is usually not as severe an issue in practice, but still good to account for sex ratio when possible.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama
 
The age compositions of natives and immigrants in Denmark, 2010–2021.

Violent conviction rates adjusted for age and sex

 

We can account for differences in age and sex distributions the following way. Instead of simply dividing by the total amount of people from each nation of origin, we can scale people counts by the age/sex violent crime conviction curves displayed in the previous section. For example, ten men of the age of 30 would create a far larger denominator than ten women of the age of 60. The results adjusted for age and sex can be seen below.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama
 
Violent crime conviction rates for immigrants in 2010–2021 by nation of origin expressed in multiples of the Danish conviction rate. Adjusted for differences in age and sex composition. Error bars are bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals.

A few facts are evident. First, adjusting for age and sex has very little influence on the nations’ rank order. Those that were previously near the top continue to be so, and vice versa. However, I find that, on average, the rate ratios are reduced by 20-25% when accounting for age, sex and year. This is almost exclusively because of the age differences between natives and immigrants.

Second, it remains the case that the disparities are largely unexplained by differences in age or sex compositions. The top immigrant groups have >6 times greater conviction rates than natives, even when age and sex compositions have been adjusted for (down from >8 in the unadjusted model).

To finish, a few things are worth considering. First, I have analyzed violent crime convictions. The extent to which convictions systematically deviate from actual criminal behavior I cannot say. Second, except for considering age and sex compositions, I have not attempted to explain the causes of the observed disparities. This is a difficult task, and perhaps worth revisiting at a later time, but I am not sure if I could do such an analysis justice with the available data.

Thanks for reading Patterns in Humanity! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

 
1

The categorization used in the official Danish government report is the following. “Western” countries are all countries in the European Union, Andorra, Australia, Canada, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, San Marino, Switzerland, United Kingdom, USA and the Vatican. “MENAPT” countries are Kuwait, Tunisia, Somalia, Lebanon, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Libya, Mauritania, Oman, Yemen, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Sudan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates.

2

Data was retrieved from Statistikbanken. To calculate the rate, you need the following: (1) the total number of convictions for violent crimes by country of origin, (2) and the total number of people by country of origin. The conviction rate is simple the former divided by the latter. The necessary datasets are as follows. STRAFNA4: Persons guilty in crimes aged 15-79 years by type of offence and country of origin (2000-2021). FOLK2: Population 1. January by sex, age, ancestry, country of origin and citizenship (1980-2023).

https://inquisitivebird.substack.com/p/the-effects-of-immigration-in-denmark

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Why are we importing people to be a burden on the welfare state?

A smart migration policy would limit access to social housing for non-citizens and focus on ensuring most arrivals are people likely to make a big economic contribution.

22 hr ago

THINK we can all agree that social housing is a resource in very scarce supply in the United Kingdom.

More than a million British families are on social housing waiting lists. At least 30,000 people have been waiting for ten years or more.

And it is not even just a question of more money being needed to tackle the chronic shortfall. Our planning system is necessarily rigorous given our relatively small landmass and high population density, so the physical capacity of the state to sufficiently increase supply is also constrained.

Yet having a council or housing association tenancy does not just bring a family some much-needed stability on the home front, it is also worth a small fortune. Typically the rent on a social home is about half that which the same home would attract on the private market – a subsidy worth several thousand pounds a year to tenants.

Given all this, it surely follows that it cannot be a good idea to import people from other nations to take up social housing in the UK ahead of our own citizens. And given all we hear from the pro-mass migration zealots about the alleged economic boon provided, one would expect to find a very low take-up rate for social housing among migrant groups.

Yet this turns out not to be the case. Figures from the Oxford Migration Observatory show that the proportion of foreign-born UK residents living in social housing is actually slightly higher overall than for UK-born citizens, 17 per cent compared to 16 per cent.

Far from sensibly arranging a migrant population dominated by wealthy go-getters, we have actually managed to import a needier cohort of people than we had living in the country in the first place.

But the real eye-opener comes when one looks at the breakdown of the social housing uptake of different migrant groups. While only six per cent of Indian-born people are in social housing, an astonishing 30 per cent of sub-Saharan African migrants in the UK live in social housing. That rises to a frankly preposterous 40 per cent in London – the most expensive city in Europe for housing. So while many UK families have been forced to leave the capital city they were born in due to housing costs, a big chunk of its social housing stock has been turned over to those arriving from other countries.

How can that be remotely economically justifiable, let alone accord to anyone’s idea of treating our own UK-born national citizens fairly?

Though sub-Saharan Africans lead the way, there are other foreign-born groups with a greater than average social housing occupation rate, including those born in Pakistan.

It strikes me that British governments could tackle this ludicrous situation in two ways. The first would be to ensure that we stop importing impoverished economic migrants to do low-paid work and ensure that only those with high-salary job offers get to move here. The second is to legislate for some form of citizen preference in the allocation of council and housing association properties.

This could range from awarding housing bonus points to those born in the UK all the way up to an outright ban on those born abroad from occupying UK social housing.

In fact no major party appears to be showing any interest in citizen preference in this field, as is shown by recent reports of permanent social housing being built that can only be applied for by refugees from Ukraine or Afghanistan. Cases of this have hit the headlines in Shropshire and in Camden in London, but the policy appears to be a nationwide one, ironically developed under the Government’s “levelling-up” funding stream.

The results of a 2021 academic study in the Netherlands, meanwhile, suggest that any government wishing genuinely to maximise potential economic benefits from immigration needs properly to address the question of which countries it should take migrants from and for what purpose.

(PDF) Book Review: [i]Borderless Welfare State: The Consequences of Immigration on Public Finances [Grenzeloze verzorgingsstaat: De gevolgen van immigratie voor de overheidsfinanciën][/i] (researchgate.net)

The team at the University of Amsterdam found that the average lifetime net contribution of immigrants to Dutch public finances, including costs associated for the second generation, was €125,000 for those who had come on work visas. That’s a decent return.

But for those coming for family reunification it was hugely negative, running to - €275,000 and for those coming to claim asylum it was a whopping - €475,000. Interestingly, the most expensive migrants were those coming from the Horn of Africa and Sudan, who clocked up negative fiscal impacts averaging  - €600,000 each.

These sharply varying costs, combined with the picture that has been revealed on UK social housing uptake, indicate that a smart immigration policy for the future would be selective about both the purpose of immigration and the countries we take most immigrants from.

But will any party be courageous enough to take on these arguments anytime soon?

https://patrickoflynn.substack.com/p/why-are-we-importing-people-to-be?publication_id=1436664&isFreemail=true

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France must drastically reduce immigration or become Third World country, says former head of intelligence agency

“Every year we accept 450,000 people who have not contributed a cent to the infrastructure they will use from day one”

April 13, 2023
editor: REMIX NEWS
author: Olivier Bault

t is not the first time former DGSE director and former ambassador Pierre Brochand has made public calls for a complete change to immigration policies while warning against France becoming poorer and possibly descending into civil war. However, hearing him doing so during a discussion with a top civil servant in the person of the director of the French Office for Immigration and Integration (OFII) on France Culture, a state-owned radio station that is part of the very left-wing and pro-immigration Radio France network, is something unusual in Emmanuel Macron’s France.

True, the presenter of the April 1 radio show titled “Face à l’immigration” (“Facing immigration”) was Alain Finkielkraut, a philosopher, writer, and radio presenter who is not particularly known for his political correctness, in particular on the subject of immigration.

Didier Leschi, OFII’s director, did not try to hide the true numbers about immigration like Interior Minister Générald Darmanin usually does. So, both men, Didier Leschi and former intelligence chief Pierre Brochand, were able to talk about an agreed-upon set of data regarding immigration levels: 320,000 new residence permits delivered in 2022 plus 156,000 asylum seekers and an additional number of 400,000 illegal immigrants benefiting from free medical care, plus a few hundred thousand who have not yet asked for the free migrants’ medical care scheme, which means their number is unknown. As Leschi commented during the radio show, such illegal immigrants are usually granted a residence permit after five years of illegal residence in France. This, of course, acts as a pull factor contributing to the rising wave of illegal immigrants that are now flooding Italy.

See: Immigration hits new records in Macron’s France and that may be by design

Reacting to those numbers, Brochand characterized the kind of immigration France has been experiencing for the last 50 years as “endured” and not chosen, “massive,” “on the rise,” “concentrated in isolated clusters,” “creating a snowball effect,” “with no historical precedence,” and “driven not by political decision-makers nor by economic players but by judges.” In addition, it is “culturally remote as it comes almost exclusively from what we used to call the Third World,” “conflictual,” “economically dysfunctional,” “costly for public finances,” “unpopular according to polls,” and “mostly irreversible.”

As a matter of fact, Brochand insisted, such massive immigration of low-qualified people from failed states has been pulling France down, making it poorer and causing a sharp degradation in the quality of its public services.

“Fifty years ago, we had the best public services in the world. We were proud and the whole world envied them. Today, they are vilified by everyone, and we complain about them. So what happened in between?

The 35-hour workweek cannot be ignored, it indeed played a role. But every year we accept 450,000 people who have not contributed a cent to the infrastructure they will use from day one. We’ve taken on board 2.6 million people in the last five years. How do you expect those people, who then become over-consumers and under-contributors, not to put unbearable pressure on public services?”

Immigration undoubtedly leads to lower salaries for the less qualified workers, and the only beneficiaries among workers are the immigrants themselves, as they see their income increase manyfold compared with what they could earn in their home countries. At the same time, the employers benefit by paying less for the work done, and the countries of origin are happy with the money transferred home by immigrant workers, which also means money is flowing out of their host country. Brochard estimates that this flow of money out of France amounts to an astounding $1 trillion since the 1970s.

Leschi himself had to acknowledge during that discussion on France Culture that there have never been so many immigrants in France, with 7 million people (out of 68 million inhabitants) who were born abroad, including 2.5 million who have since acquired citizenship.

In that respect, a recent article in Le Figaro gave more numbers based on the latest data published by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE): Those 7 million first-generation immigrants now account for 10.3 percent of France’s population, up from 7.4 percent at the end of the 1980s and 6.5 percent in 1968. Second-generation immigrants account for another 10.9 percent of France’s population, and third-generation immigrants account for 10.2 percent. Together, immigrants thus make up about a third of the population of France, and about half of first-generation immigrants are of African origin.  

The OFII director explained on April 1 that “a changeover took place in the 1980s with immigration that became more and more a migration from the south of the world, with an increasingly important proportion of North Africans and, especially in recent years, of Sub-Saharans. (…) In 1964, two-thirds of the immigrants were Europeans, today it is only one-third.”

Curiously, on April 9, the head of the French Catholic episcopate, archbishop Éric de Moulins-Beaufort, said about immigration on the KTO TV channel that “those who are delusional are the ones who try to make us believe that it can be stopped.”

His remark would appear to apply to former DGSE director Pierre Brochand, with the Catholic archbishop insisting that we must prepare to better welcome arrivals and be ready to live in a different society.

Brochand considers for his part that “If we do nothing or if we do little, we are going to head either towards a progressive implosion of social trust in France, that is to say towards a society where the quality of life will collapse and where it will be less and less pleasant to live, or, by successive explosions, towards confrontations that will make France a country where one will not be able to live at all.”

 

“And when I say all this,” Brochand added on April 1, “I think of my children, my future grandchildren, and the future that is reserved for them, especially when the tipping point will have been crossed when the population of immigrant origin and Muslim religion passes the 50 percent mark.”

In the same conversation with Leschi and Finkielkraut, the former intelligence agency head said that in France already 40 percent of children aged between 0 and 4 are of immigrant origin.

“We have reached such a point,” Brochand said, “that the reaction can only be extreme.”

The reaction, in Brochand’s eyes, can only be to divide legal immigration by 10, divide the access to nationality by 10, divide by a multiple of 10 the visas for nationals of high-risk countries, cancel everything that makes France socially attractive, and abolish all the rewards granted to cheating — like regularizing the stay of illegal immigrants or giving them access to free medical care. In addition, France must reduce the size of the diasporas by not renewing residence permits and have a very targeted natalist policy to boost the ethnic French population.

To that purpose, the most important thing to do, according to Brochand, is “to take back control of the legal instruments that are indispensable for action, that have passed into the hands of the judges, and that must be given back to the legislators by various means.”

Brochand also advocates just ignoring “the intimidating discourse that is imposed on us and in particular the accusations of racism and fascism,” which he considers to be pure moral blackmail reflecting a specific ideology.

In what may be troubling news for the French population, the former diplomat and former intelligence director does not think there is currently enough courage among the French political class to do all this, so for the time being, France seems set to continue on its very dangerous course, increasingly becoming the immigration-sick man of Europe.

https://rmx.news/france/france-must-drastically-reduce-immigration-or-become-3rd-world-country-says-former-head-of-intelligence-agency/

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Channel migrants 'quickly turn to crime' when they arrive in Britain, Home Secretary claims

  • Suella Braverman said it is becoming 'notable feature of everyday crime fighting'

By David Barrett Home Affairs Editor For The Daily Mail

Published: 00:44 BST, 27 April 2023 | Updated: 00:46 BST, 27 April 2023

Some Channel migrants 'very quickly' get involved in crime after reaching UK shores and have become a 'notable feature of everyday crime-fighting', said Suella Braverman.

The Home Secretary said chief constables had briefed her on small boat arrivals from northern France becoming embroiled in drug gangs, exploitation and prostitution.

She said: 'Not in all cases, but it is becoming a notable feature of everyday crime fighting in England and Wales. 

'We cannot ignore the fact that many people are coming here illegally, and they're getting very quickly involved in the drugs trade, in other exploitation, in criminality and prostitution.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12018587/Channel-migrants-quickly-turn-crime-arrive-Britain-Home-Secretary-claims.html

 

Swedish Prime Minister: "Massive Immigration Just Doesn't Work"

Friday, Jun 09, 2023 - 11:30 AM

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has acknowledged that “massive immigration just doesn’t work” as he announced changes to the country’s border control policy that would make it the strictest in the European Union.

Kristersson made the comments to mark the National Day of Sweden as he insisted that it was too easy for migrants who can’t even speak Swedish to obtain citizenship.

“Let me be clear: Massive immigration and poor integration just doesn’t work,” wrote Kristersson.

“That is why we are now changing Sweden’s migration policy and making it the strictest in the EU.”

The leader of the center-right Moderate Party said new measures would be introduced to ensure migrants had not committed crimes in their home countries and also tests to ensure they respect Swedish culture and heritage.

“A ‘no’ to asylum means ‘no’ and you have to leave the country. That should be obvious, but it’s not,” said the PM.

“Equally important, a ‘yes’ should mean that you really get involved in Swedish society.”

Kristersson said citizenship was not just about obtaining a passport and should be a “social contract and that social contract contains both rights and obligations.”

He added that up until now “there has been absolutely no expectation that anyone who comes to Sweden will really learn our language,” which is the “glue that binds us together.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/swedish-prime-minister-massive-immigration-just-doesnt-work

Edited by Macnamara
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Illegal Immigration Costs Hospitals Billions In Unpaid Bills, House GOP Report Finds

Illegal immigration is costing American hospitals billions of dollars in unpaid medical bills, a new report from Republicans on the House Homeland Security Committee found.

The report, which asserts that Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas should be investigated over his handling of the border crisis, lists the projected costs to the healthcare systems of several states.  
 
 

“Hospital and emergency room care for illegal aliens is one of the most significant expenses,” the report says, adding that “this has led to significant costs for hospitals because providers are often not reimbursed for these services.”

“Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton wrote that his state alone was required to pay anywhere between $62- 90 million per year to cover illegal aliens under its Emergency Medicaid program,” according to the report. “Between 2006-2008, uncompensated costs borne by Texas state hospitals providing care to illegal immigrants ranged from $597 million to $717 million. That’s as much as $1.03 billion in May 2023 dollars.”

“Data released by the state of Florida … showed that illegal aliens cost hospitals about $312 million in FY21, with hospitals only receiving about $103 million in reimbursements,” the report continued. Meanwhile, a hospital in Yuma, Arizona, provided $26 million in uncompensated care to illegal immigrants.

The report cites a recent Politico article about a program in Illinois, which states:

    A state program that offers health benefits to undocumented adults is ballooning. When it was started a few years ago, lawmakers estimated it to run from $2 million to $4 million. Now health officials say the state needs more than $1.1 billion to keep it running because the number of participants far exceeds what the state had planned on.

The committee’s report comes as Chicago and New York City struggle to pay for and procure housing for thousands of foreign nationals who’ve crossed our border. The Chicago City Council recently passed a controversial $51 million funding measure to provide foreign nationals with housing and food.

http://www.stationgossip.com/2023/06/illegal-immigration-costs-hospitals.html

 

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Analysis: Nearly 17 Million Illegal Aliens in the United States Cost Americans $163 Billion Annually

John Binder

22 Jun 2023

The nation’s illegal alien population has hit nearly 17 million, an increase of more than two million since President Joe Biden began implementing his Catch and Release network at the United States–Mexico border, an analysis reveals.

The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) released its annual report estimating the size of the illegal alien population residing in the United States.

Based on the latest Census Bureau data, FAIR researchers found that there are at least 16.8 million illegal aliens now living in American communities — an increase of 2.3 million illegal aliens since Biden took office in January 2021 and an increase of 1.3 million illegal aliens since the same time last year.

As the illegal alien population skyrockets under Biden, so do the costs to Americans.

“Along with the sharp increase in the illegal alien population comes [sic] sharp increases in costs to American taxpayers,” researchers note:

The unprecedented rate of influx of new illegal aliens over the past year would add $12.6 billion annually to the costs of illegal immigration, bringing the cumulative net cost to at least $163 billion a year. At the current pace of illegal immigration, the annual net cost will exceed $200 billion by 2026. [Emphasis added]

“… [T]he fiscal and social burdens of the Biden administration’s sabotage of our immigration enforcement policies are unsustainable,” FAIR President Dan Stein said in a statement.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/06/22/analysis-nearly-17-million-illegal-aliens-united-states-cost-americans-163-billion-annually/

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STEPHEN GLOVER: Why won't our politicians admit that the housing crisis is being fuelled by LEGAL immigration?

By Stephen Glover for the Daily Mail

Updated: 23:42 BST, 26 July 2023

In 2022, 45,755 people were recorded as having crossed the Channel in small boats. Yet in the same year, the figure for net legal migration was 606,000. I make that just over 13 times greater.

These people, along with those so-called illegal migrants who are allowed to stay, must have places to live, hospitals and doctors' surgeries to look after them if they are ill and schools to educate their children.

What wasn't mentioned, either by Mr Robinson or Mr Gove, is that there is one factor above all driving rapid population growth, and with it the need for more housing, which the Government is failing to provide in sufficient quantities.

You've guessed it. The elephant in the room, which almost no one dares acknowledge, presumably for fear of being thought racist, is immigration. Not so much illegal immigration, notwithstanding the time it occupies and the passions it generates in our national debate. I principally mean legal immigration.

Here I turn to Migration Watch, an organisation which has an impeccable record in predicting migrant flows, as was the case in 2014 when Romanians were first allowed to come here freely. I trust it. If present trends continue, Migration Watch reckons the population will rise by at least 16 million to between 83 and 87 million by 2046.

Note that between 1973 and 1998, the population of the UK only grew from 56 to 58.5 million. Then came New Labour's scheme of encouraging mass migration. Over the next 25 years the population surged to 68 million.

If Migration Watch is correct, unless this and future governments reverse the process, population growth will continue unchecked. Under its projections, 260,000 more homes will be needed every year, which is appreciably more than are being built at the moment.

According to Migration Watch, we'll need at least 15 new cities the size of Birmingham over a 25-year period. All the brownfield sites in the country won't come close to satisfying this demand. Vast swathes of England — and particularly southern England, where many new migrants tend to live and work — will be concreted over.

Will successive governments press the brake pedal? It hardly seems likely. This administration, which has some sensitivity to people's fears about uncontrolled immigration, has nonetheless presided over a boom in legal migration. Labour would surely be even worse.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12341783/STEPHEN-GLOVER-wont-politicians-admit-housing-crisis-fuelled-LEGAL-immigration.html

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60% of recipients of Sweden’s unemployment benefits are IMMIGRANTS, and slightly under half are of non-European origin

 New data unveiled by the government of Sweden showed that around 60 percent of recipients of unemployment benefits in the country were not born in Sweden – and slightly under half of those are "non-European immigrants."

 

At a press conference where senior Swedish government ministers announced a job tax cut that could see families save around 14,000 Swedish krona ($1,264) per year, these same officials also noted how an "overwhelming majority" of people who live on government benefits in the country are immigrants.  

 

Government figures provided at the conference showed that around 300,000 people in Sweden are currently registered as unemployed with the Swedish Public Employment Service, the country's main government agency for helping job seekers match with employers.

 

Data shows that around 60 percent of all recipients of unemployment benefits in Sweden have foreign origins, with slightly under half having non-European ancestry. The country's immigrant population at the end of last year was estimated to be at around 2.15 million, or around 20 percent of the Swedish population. This means that migrants disproportionately make up a majority of unemployed people receiving welfare benefits.

http://www.yourdestinationnow.com/2023/09/60-of-recipients-of-swedens.html

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Lawless Britain: Police failed to solve THREE QUARTERS of burglaries and car thefts last year... meaning 6,000 crimes go unpunished every day

  • A staggering 214,076 burglaries in England and Wales went unsolved last year 

By Rebecca Camber

Published: 20:05 EDT, 29 October 2023 | Updated: 20:15 EDT, 29 October 2023

Police failed to solve three quarters of burglaries and car thefts last year, shock figures reveal.

A staggering 214,076 burglaries in England and Wales – that's 587 a day – went unsolved in the year to June 2023.

And just six per cent of break-ins resulted in a suspect being charged or summonsed to court, according to analysis by the Liberal Democrats, who warned of a 'crime catastrophe'.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12686711/Lawless-Britain-Police-failed-solve-THREE-QUARTERS-burglaries-car-thefts-year-meaning-6-000-crimes-unpunished-day.html

Migrant crisis has US taxpayers on the hook for up to $451B, House GOP report says

By Social Links for Josh Christenson
Published Nov. 13, 2023, 9:00 a.m. ET

Americans could pay up to $451 billion to care for migrants who entered the US illegally, but have been released into the country or escaped from custody, according to a new report due out Monday from House Republicans and obtained exclusively by The Post.

“Every day, millions of American taxpayer dollars are spent on costs directly associated with illegal immigration and the unprecedented crisis at the Southwest border sparked by Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’ policies,” the House Homeland Security Committee interim staff report states.

“Only a small fraction is ever recouped from the taxes paid by illegal aliens, with the rest falling on the shoulders of American citizens and lawful residents,” it adds.

Compiled from federal and state records, media reports and other public information, the 50-page document outlines the taxpayer costs incurred in medical care, housing, education and other welfare benefits for tens of millions of migrants — to say nothing of the additional costs for law enforcement.

“This report reveals in painstaking detail the dollar costs facing the American people every day that this chaos continues, both in small towns on the border and in big cities like New York,” Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) told The Post.

https://nypost.com/2023/11/13/news/house-gop-report-cites-historic-451-billion-cost-of-migrant-crisis/

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Diversity is Impoverishing European Countries

December 13, 2023 6:22 pm by CWR

by Chris Black

 

The cost of racial and ethnic diversity is incredible.

In just 6 years the United Kingdom has seen a 5 billion pound increase in spending on police services (www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-funding-for-england-and-wales-2015-to-2023/police-funding-for-england-and-wales-2015-to-2023) in England and Wales, a 41% policing budget increase.

In just the first 9 months of 2023 Ireland’s Garda overtime budget has surged by 54%, and a further 25% increase is planned for 2024.

(www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money-and-tax/budgets/budget-2024/)

Between 1991 and 2019 the cost of American police departments increased by a staggering 254% (www.americanactionforum.org/research/assessing-calls-to-defund-the-police-police-budgets-and-employment-levels/).

All levels of government spent just 40 billion dollars to police the entire United States in 1991, by 2017 police budgets were just shy of 200 billion dollars.

Diverse societies are crime ridden and expensive societies.

In 1981, England (not the UK as a whole) had a population of some 45 million people, 95.4% of whom were White. In that same year the British state spent less than £2 billion on policing in the entire United Kingdom.

Today, with a population exceeding 56 million, and a non-white population some 10-plus million strong, the policing budget for England (and Wales) will exceed some £17 billion.

(www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-funding-for-england-and-wales-2015-to-2023/police-funding-for-england-and-wales-2015-to-2023)

Today roughly 27%, or 24,200 of the current prisoners in the UK, are racial foreigners.

The British government spends roughly £48,409 for each prisoner (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050046/costs-per-place-costs-per-prisoner-2020_-2021.pdf) it houses, meaning the cost of the non-British prison population is some £1.16 billion annually.

The NHS in England, with a budget of roughly £160 billion for 2023 (www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/funding/health-funding-data-analysis), will spend some £45.6 billion on the non-White and non-British population.

In 2023 the budget for schools in England reached roughly £57.3 billion (ifs.org.uk/publications/annual-report-education-spending-england-2023), some £20 billion of which will be spent on non-White and other non-British students.

Britain is a wealth country with a productive White population, but a growing non-White demographic cohort is impoverishing the nation.
Australia serves as yet another example of the astonishing cost of diversity.

Aboriginals are 3% of the Australian population (www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-people-census/2021) yet compose 32% of the nation’s prison population. (www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/prisoners-australia/latest-release)

Foreign born persons compose a further 18% of the nation’s prison population.

Spending on criminal justice in Australia is the highest on record, at over 21 billion AUD. (ipa.org.au/research/rights-and-freedoms/the-cost-of-prisons-in-australia-2023)

This number is expected to balloon further as the nation is surpassing 100% prison capacity.

White Australians are footing the bill for an increasingly diverse nation which they did not ask for and which polling shows they are increasingly unhappy with. (whitepapersinstitute.substack.com/p/white-australia-is-in-crisis-12)

A recent Dutch academic study of the country’s public spending indicates that the government is more eager to support migrants than its own citizens through investing in core priority sectors, with migrant subsidies averaging an annual €17 billion over the past decades.

The paper “Borderless Welfare State: The Consequences of Immigration on Public Finances” looks into the tangible implications of mass immigration on Dutch public funds.

The authors of the study compared official government spending data.

According to the data, immigration relief policies peaked at €32 billion in 2016 due to the 2015 European migrant crisis.

The study also suggested that the current Dutch government’s financial support programs for migrants significantly exceed the average expenditures on education, healthcare, justice, social security and allowances.

In the years 1995-2019, the total cost of immigration amounted to over €400 billion ($430 billion at the current exchange rate).

It is time to reverse this trend in all European countries.

https://citizenwatchreport.com/diversity-is-impoverishing-european-countries/

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6 minutes ago, Macnamara said:

 

look at the facts. things are getting worse not better. Stop believing the narratives of the corporate socialists behind the UN!

The Effects of Immigration in Denmark

 

First, I briefly summarize statistics on the fiscal impact of immigration in Denmark, taken from an official government report. Second, I add my own analysis on violent crime conviction rates by nation of origin. Together they give a more complete overview of immigration in Denmark.

Net Financial Contribution of Immigrants in Denmark

 

Not all countries have formal population registers. However, Scandinavian countries in particular are well-regarded in this respect, having government databases storing comprehensive and high-quality data of the full populations. Denmark is especially interesting because it is the only Scandinavian country to have properly quantified the net fiscal impact of immigration based on register data. This analysis has been conducted and described in the official Danish government report, Immigrants’ net contribution to the public finances in 2018. The net financial contribution of a person is conceptually simple: their total contribution to the state finances, subtracted their total costs.

The report finds that the total net contribution in 2018 by native Danish people was +41 billion DKK. The contribution of immigrants and their descendants was net negative at -24 billion DKK (Table b). However, net contribution was highly heterogenous by group as will be illustrated in the following figures. The figures are taken directly from the report, with the minor tweak that I have translated the text to English. The first figure included here (Figure 2.7) shows the average net financial contribution at all ages by broad nation category: Danish origin, Western countries, MENAPT (Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan and Turkey), and other non-Western countries.

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The average net financial contribution of immigrants in Denmark by age and broad nation-of-origin category.

As is expected, children and the elderly are net negative contributors. To compensate for this net cost, it is necessary and expected that people in their prime working age have a sufficiently large net positive contribution. The next Figure (2.8) shows what the total net contributions are. On the whole, they find that Western immigrants (and their descendants, i.e., 2nd generation immigrants) have a small positive net financial contribution, whereas MENAPT and other non-Western immigrants and descendants have a net negative financial contribution.

Given the strong relationship between age and financial contribution, the analysis also considers age-adjusted figures. The next figure shows the actual net contributions as well as the age-standardized net contributions of immigrants and their descendants. Adjusting for age substantially changes the estimates of net contribution. This is because immigrants and natives differ in their age composition, with immigrants being disproportionately young adults.

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The actual and age-standardized average net contributions of immigrants and their descendants in Denmark by broad nation-of-origin category.

Lastly, the report also provides net financial contribution by immigrants of specific country of origin, which can be seen below. The list includes all countries of origin with at least 5,000 individuals in Denmark.

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The average net financial contribution of immigrants in Denmark by nation of origin. Only includes nations with at least 5,000 immigrants in Denmark. Estimates are not adjusted for age.

In general, net contributions are positive for Western countries and negative for MENAPT countries. For other non-Western countries, some have positive contribution and some negative. Unfortunately these nation-of-origin estimates are not adjusted for age. With that said, we know that adjusting for age would systematically lower these estimates (as demonstrated in Figure 2.8). Thus once adjusted for age, immigrants from Western countries, instead of being net positive in all cases, would probably be roughly evenly distributed below and above zero (the aggregate estimate is just barely above zero in Figure 2.8). MENAPT countries would go further into the negatives after age adjustments.

 

Violent Crime Convictions

 

Having summarized the results of the official government financial analysis, I now append with my own analysis on the topic of immigration and crime. According to Danmarks Statistik, there were 5,921 violent crime convictions in 2021, of which 71% (4,193) were committed by people of Danish origin and 29% (1,728) by immigrants and their descendants. In 2021, immigrants and their descendants represented 14% (817,438) and people of Danish origin 86% (5,022,607) of the total population of 5,840,045. Thus immigrants and descendants are overrepresented in violent crime convictions, being 14% of the population and constituting 29% of the violent crime convictions. This translates into immigrants and descendants having 2.5 times higher conviction rates than natives.

However, like financial contributions, convictions also exhibit great heterogeneity. Western immigrants and descendants were 5.0% of the population and accounted for just 3.8% of the nation’s violent crime convictions. Non-Western immigrants and descendants were 8.9% of the population and accounted for 25.4% of the nation’s violent crime convictions. Homicide is very uncommon in Denmark, but we see a similar pattern for homicide convictions. For rape convictions, the pattern is even stronger. The results for the period 2010-2021 can be seen in the figure below. For each group, it shows the population share and the share of total violent crime convictions, as well as shares of specific types of violent crime convictions, that can be attributed to each group.

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Population and violent crime conviction shares in Denmark in years 2010–2021 by broad ancestry category.

We can also convert these to conviction rates relative to that of natives. This can be seen in the figure below.

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Violent crime conviction rate ratios in Denmark in years 2010–2021 by broad ancestry category.

Overall, Western immigrants have violent conviction rates that are approximately 20% lower than that of natives, whereas Non-Western immigrants have approximately 3.5 times higher conviction rates than natives.

The heterogeneity can be analyzed at an even finer granularity. The Danish government agency Danmarks Statistik publicize the data necessary to compute the conviction rates by country of origin.

2

The figure below shows the results for the years 2010–2021 expressed in terms of multiples of the Danish rate.

 

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Violent crime conviction rates for immigrants in 2010–2021 by nation of origin expressed in multiples of the Danish conviction rate. Not adjusted for age or sex. Error bars are bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals.

At the bottom we see that several immigrant groups have conviction rates less than half of that of natives (Japanese immigrants manage to have zero violent convictions in this 12 year period). At the top, we see some groups having conviction rates >8 times higher than natives. However, none of the figures in this section are adjusted for age, which is a potential major contributor to the observed disparities. We will consider that now.

Accounting for age and sex

 

Crime rates vary greatly with age and sex. The rate of imprisonment for violent crimes in Denmark (averaged across 2010–2021) by age and sex is illustrated below. It goes without saying that violent conviction rates are highest in young males. Violent crime rates seem to peak in the late teens. At least in this data, the female peak (age 16) is earlier than the male peak (age 19), possibly reflecting the earlier female puberty (peak years marked with dashed lines).

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The rate of imprisonment for violent crimes in Denmark averaged across 2010–2021, by age and sex. The peak years are marked with dashed lines for males and females, respectively.

Further, the age composition of immigrants differs substantially from the native population (see below). Immigrants cluster disproportionately at ages with higher rates of violent criminality. For this reason, age is arguably the first and most crucial variable to consider when observing any disparities between immigrants and natives. The sex ratio of immigrants also occasionally deviates nontrivially from a typical approximate half/half balance. This is usually not as severe an issue in practice, but still good to account for sex ratio when possible.

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The age compositions of natives and immigrants in Denmark, 2010–2021.

Violent conviction rates adjusted for age and sex

 

We can account for differences in age and sex distributions the following way. Instead of simply dividing by the total amount of people from each nation of origin, we can scale people counts by the age/sex violent crime conviction curves displayed in the previous section. For example, ten men of the age of 30 would create a far larger denominator than ten women of the age of 60. The results adjusted for age and sex can be seen below.

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Violent crime conviction rates for immigrants in 2010–2021 by nation of origin expressed in multiples of the Danish conviction rate. Adjusted for differences in age and sex composition. Error bars are bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals.

A few facts are evident. First, adjusting for age and sex has very little influence on the nations’ rank order. Those that were previously near the top continue to be so, and vice versa. However, I find that, on average, the rate ratios are reduced by 20-25% when accounting for age, sex and year. This is almost exclusively because of the age differences between natives and immigrants.

Second, it remains the case that the disparities are largely unexplained by differences in age or sex compositions. The top immigrant groups have >6 times greater conviction rates than natives, even when age and sex compositions have been adjusted for (down from >8 in the unadjusted model).

To finish, a few things are worth considering. First, I have analyzed violent crime convictions. The extent to which convictions systematically deviate from actual criminal behavior I cannot say. Second, except for considering age and sex compositions, I have not attempted to explain the causes of the observed disparities. This is a difficult task, and perhaps worth revisiting at a later time, but I am not sure if I could do such an analysis justice with the available data.

Thanks for reading Patterns in Humanity! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

 
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The categorization used in the official Danish government report is the following. “Western” countries are all countries in the European Union, Andorra, Australia, Canada, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, San Marino, Switzerland, United Kingdom, USA and the Vatican. “MENAPT” countries are Kuwait, Tunisia, Somalia, Lebanon, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Libya, Mauritania, Oman, Yemen, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Sudan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates.

2

Data was retrieved from Statistikbanken. To calculate the rate, you need the following: (1) the total number of convictions for violent crimes by country of origin, (2) and the total number of people by country of origin. The conviction rate is simple the former divided by the latter. The necessary datasets are as follows. STRAFNA4: Persons guilty in crimes aged 15-79 years by type of offence and country of origin (2000-2021). FOLK2: Population 1. January by sex, age, ancestry, country of origin and citizenship (1980-2023).

https://inquisitivebird.substack.com/p/the-effects-of-immigration-in-denmark

I have not said immigration comes with no problems nor that there isn't an agenda to increase immigrants.

 

What I said was this particular report does not suggest an agenda. Any economist presented with current demographic data would come to the conclusion that the population growth needs to come from somewhere else if natives not reproducing..

 

The above is one study which would need a real investigation as to how it was compiled to check for validity and missed the point that immigrants actually produce children who will benefit the economy in tje future.

 

Also a big difference between countries doing immigration because they think their doing the right thing and have socialist leaning, and countries that have genuine population numbers and skills deficit 

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5 minutes ago, Mr H said:

I have not said immigration comes with no problems nor that there isn't an agenda to increase immigrants.

 

What I said was this particular report does not suggest an agenda. Any economist presented with current demographic data would come to the conclusion that the population growth needs to come from somewhere else if natives not reproducing..

 

The above is one study which would need a real investigation as to how it was compiled to check for validity and missed the point that immigrants actually produce children who will benefit the economy in tje future.

 

Also a big difference between countries doing immigration because they think their doing the right thing and have socialist leaning, and countries that have genuine population numbers and skills deficit 

 

the report is bunk in the same way that the climate agenda is bunk, the covid agenda is bunk, industrial waste product fluoride being put into the drinking water to help your teeth is bunk etc etc etc

 

they sell people BS all day every day but it doesn't mean we have to swallow it

 

a smaller population is not a bad thing. what's a bad thing is cramming more and more people onto a small island that only produces half of its own food

Edited by Macnamara
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