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Reason why China hasn't seized Taiwan in over 50 years: U.S.A. beats China in war scenario, simulation displays


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In think tank’s Taiwan war game, US beats China at high cost

 
 
Todd South
Fri, August 12, 2022 at 11:58 AM
 
 

WASHINGTON – In a pessimistic, but realistic, 2026 war game scenario, a combined sabotage and information operation campaign helped Chinese military forces land on the shores of Taiwan. The United States, caught off guard due to another global crisis, must rapidly respond. In this near future, the United States has some, but not all the weapons, units and ships it needs for this fight. But there is no magic bullet that’s going to solve this invasion in a matter of hours or even days.

Players in the air-conditioned offices of the Center for Strategic and International Studies huddled around conference room tables on Aug. 5. One room had the U.S. map of the Pacific region laid out, dotted with blocks of blue representing U.S. ships, airpower and units. Beside this map is another, dotted in red, showing the Chinese military view of the conflict.

In another room a detailed map of Taiwan sits, red forces already positioned and moving to take control.

 

This is the end of a week of war games in which various retired military officers, think tank experts and other government officials have participated. The result will be an extensive report later this year from CSIS analyzing the outcomes of 22 iterations of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In all but one, the “Taiwan alone” version, the United States is heavily involved.

The game umpires include two doctoral students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a former Marine captain and Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist with MIT’s Center for International Studies and author of five books and numerous articles on China’s military power. Overseeing the project is Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior advisor and retired Marine colonel.

Some variants had Japan involved from the start. The Philippines allowed U.S. basing in some iterations, but not others. Game moderators permitted U.S. strikes on mainland China in some, but not others. Throughout the week the game always reaches a stopping point where the players know the likely outcome and, nearly always within the roughly three-week timeframe of simulated combat, it reaches a stalemate on Taiwan between U.S. and Chinese ground forces.

 

The U.S. team on Aug. 5 included Chris Dougherty, a senior fellow for the Center for a New American Security’s Defense Program, and Daniel Rice, an analyst with The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Dougherty also served first in the Army’s 75th Ranger Regiment and later as a senior advisor to the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development.

The China team consisted of Dr. Nora Bensahel, a Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies visiting professor, and Institute for Defense Analyses research staff member Thomas Greenwood, also a retired Marine colonel.

In the very real world, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had only concluded her controversial trip to Taiwan days before these war games began.

 

People’s Republic of China party officials denounced Pelosi’s trip, calling it a provocation. The Chinese government considers Taiwan a part of China and fights attempts by other nations to officially recognize the country’s independence.

“China will definitely take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity in response to” Pelosi’s visit, officials with the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement. The wide variety and sheer number of games gives analysts a robust data set, multiple players in the Aug. 5 iteration told Military Times. This is one way to go beyond the headlines and official quotes for a nitty gritty look at what it might take to counter China’s ambitions for Taiwan in the foreseeable future. https://www.yahoo.com/news/think-tank-taiwan-war-game-185802323.html

 
Edited by Ibizan Hound
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I found this study very interesting as war games have been used for centuries to try and determine the outcome of a battle or war.  However, the continued decrease of the U.S. military's strength worries me.  I served from 1998-2007 and noticed around 1999 that the military was becoming softer.  Around this time they started using Stress Cards in basic training.  After 9/11 it was more about numbers than quality servicemen.  I seen this first hand with the new recruits that came to the unit.  They were much softer and less disciplined.  When Obama took office the military took a punch in the gut as his woke social politics started to infiltrate the ranks.  Trump tried to strengthen them again, but the damage had been done, and not enough effort was put into reshaping them.  When Biden took office, things got even worse. 

 

There are, and always will be, a few solid people in the military, however, they are getting filtered out rapidly.  China cans ee the weakness of the U.S. military, and will eventually capitalize on this.  Our strength really comes from the citizens and veterans who are always willing to fight for freedom and protection of the land.  But, the government has even been cracking down of=n this over the years.  Most recently the FBI with their Militia Violent Extremism documents. https://www.projectveritas.com/news/fbi-whistleblower-leaks-bureaus-domestic-terrorism-symbols-guide-on-militia/

 

I believe the government knows the citizenry and veterans are the last line of defense, so they want to destroy them as well.  Even many of the men of this great nation have been sissified and weakened.

 

“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”


 G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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On 8/13/2022 at 9:04 PM, The All Eye said:

I found this study very interesting as war games have been used for centuries to try and determine the outcome of a battle or war.  However, the continued decrease of the U.S. military's strength worries me.  I served from 1998-2007 and noticed around 1999 that the military was becoming softer.  Around this time they started using Stress Cards in basic training.  After 9/11 it was more about numbers than quality servicemen.  I seen this first hand with the new recruits that came to the unit.  They were much softer and less disciplined.  When Obama took office the military took a punch in the gut as his woke social politics started to infiltrate the ranks.  Trump tried to strengthen them again, but the damage had been done, and not enough effort was put into reshaping them.  When Biden took office, things got even worse. 

 

There are, and always will be, a few solid people in the military, however, they are getting filtered out rapidly.  China cans ee the weakness of the U.S. military, and will eventually capitalize on this.  Our strength really comes from the citizens and veterans who are always willing to fight for freedom and protection of the land.  But, the government has even been cracking down of=n this over the years.  Most recently the FBI with their Militia Violent Extremism documents. https://www.projectveritas.com/news/fbi-whistleblower-leaks-bureaus-domestic-terrorism-symbols-guide-on-militia/

 

I believe the government knows the citizenry and veterans are the last line of defense, so they want to destroy them as well.  Even many of the men of this great nation have been sissified and weakened.

 

“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”


 G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Not this man.

 

US 'must contest' Chinese missiles over Taiwan, says admiral

Tue, August 16, 2022 at 6:29 AM
 
 
China conducts a long-range live-fire drill into the Taiwan strait from an undisclosed location
 
China launches a missile during a long-range live-fire drill in the Taiwan Strait

China's decision to fire missiles over Taiwan must be contested, a top US military commander has said. Seventh Fleet commander Vice Admiral Karl Thomas said otherwise such action by China would become the norm, calling it "a gorilla in the room". Beijing held military drills around the self-governing island earlier this month but did not confirm if any missiles passed directly over it.

Tensions soared after US politician Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. Her high-profile visit infuriated Beijing, which claims the self-ruled island as part of its territory. Tuesday's comments by Vice Admiral Thomas are significant, Based in Yokosuka, Japan, the Seventh Fleet is the largest forward-­deployed fleet in the US Navy, with some 50 to 70 vessels and submarines - and is a key part of its military presence in the region.

 

"It's very important that we contest this type of thing. I know that the gorilla in the room is launching missiles over Taiwan," Vice Admiral Thomas told reporters in Singapore. "It's irresponsible to launch missiles over Taiwan into international waters.

"If you don't challenge it... all of a sudden it can become just like the islands in the South China Sea [that] have now become military outposts. They now are full functioning military outposts that have missiles on them, large runways, hangers, radars, listening posts."

China's decision to conduct nearly a week of military drills in the waters around Taiwan disrupted major shipping and aerial routes - a move the island said effectively amounted to a blockade. It also accused Beijing of using the drills as practice for an invasion.

Taiwan said the missiles China fired flew high into the atmosphere and posed no threat. Its defence ministry did not disclose the trajectory of the missiles, citing intelligence concerns.

 

The Japanese embassy in Washington said it believed four missiles fired by China had passed over Taiwan's capital Taipei.

The US and other allies have stepped up naval crossings in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, another area of strategic importance to Beijing, to emphasise that these are international waters. While the US has official diplomatic relations with China and not Taiwan, it maintains a special relationship with the island, which includes selling weapons for defence - an arrangement that has long troubled China. In recent years it has also become yet another flashpoint between Washington and Beijing as tensions between the two soured. https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-must-contest-chinese-missiles-102013444.html

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Haven't we learned anything about computer simulations in the past 2 years? (cough Covid cough) 

 

With Biden, who does not remember what planet he is on, as commander in chief, and the amount of trans people/women in the military now, does anyone expect the US to win against China that bans "sissy men" from television?

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