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Conflict in Ukraine - Russian Invasion


Sexpistol50

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Posted (edited)

As the Russian saying goes "You invade Afghanistan, you return with Mujahideen ghosts".

 

 

 

Power tends to isolate those who hold too much of it and eventually they lose touch with their common man.

 

Governments, if they endure, always tend increasingly toward aristocratic forms. No government in history has been known to evade this pattern. And as the aristocracy develops, government tends more and more to act exclusively in the interests of the ruling class-whether that class be hereditary royalty, oligarchs of financial empires, or entrenched bureaucracy.

 

- F. Herbert

Edited by Seconal
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Con artist Dominic Cummings speaks a few truths about Ukraine, but he's only trying to spin it to make it look as if Zelensky tricked Boris, not the other way round.

 

 

The UK and its allies got tricked into backing a “corrupt mafia state” in Ukraine and getting into a war of attrition against a Moscow-Beijing partnership, Dominic Cummings has said in an interview.

 

“We should have never got into the whole stupid situation,” Cummings told the outlet I News in an interview published on Wednesday, commenting on London’s full-throated support for Kiev. He also described Ukraine as a “corrupt sh*thole that doesn’t matter at all.”

 

This is not a replay of 1940 with the pumpkin Zelensky as the Churchillian underdog,” he added. “This whole Ukrainian corrupt mafia state has basically conned us all and we’re all going to get f**ked as a consequence.”

 

Western sanctions have been “more of a disaster” for the EU than for Russia, driving up the cost of living while pushing Moscow and Beijing closer together, according to Cummings. All the West managed to do is get into a war of attrition with Russia, “who we pushed into an alliance with the world’s biggest manufacturing power.”

 

Cummings also addressed the argument that Russian President Vladimir Putin needed to be “taught a lesson” about invading neighbors.

 

“The lesson we’ve taught Putin is that we’re a bunch of total f**king jokers,” he said. “I mean, Putin already knew that before the war. But this has emphasized it and broadcast it to the entire world, what a bunch of clowns we are,” he added.

 

Between the sanctions regime and the US trying to seize frozen Russian assets, the West is encouraging the emergence of alternative global financial systems, he explained.

https://www.rt.com/news/597357-dominic-cummings-ukraine-corruption/

 

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Posted (edited)

Per chance, he was fundraising for some more bombs to drop on Gaza? I don't think they have any money left, over the pond. Maybe his next stunt will be surfacing from the Dead Sea in a Slash-themed hat. What a total K*NT... 

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-69013071

 

'Antony Blinken plays guitar in basement bar on trip to Kyiv.'

 

247055.jpg

 

Edited by numnuts
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 Prepare for a flurry of events that will change the world forever, or at least for a very long time.

This conflict between the U.S. and Russia/China is going to end when one side achieves its objectives. There is no middle ground, there is no negotiation, because the goal of the United States is to take control of Russia (by weakening it, and create a 90's Russia, with oligharchs controlling Russia's resources and themselves being controlled by the U.S., in order to suppress China's rise, by controlling the flow of Russian resources), while the goal of Russia and China is to stop it.

If Russia and China could've stopped the United States by other means then militarily, it would have happened. The reason why the United States cannot be stopped otherwise, is mainly because of China. In China, the United States managed to create and sustain a system of very powerful Chinese economic oligharcs, that control China, and are being controlled by the U.S.

What the U.S. did not managed to do in Russia, they did in China. Putin removed/imprisoned/killed/replaced most of the Russian oligharcs, in a very short period of time. Between 2000 and 2010. Xi still is in the process of cleaning China, but the process is much more slow and harder then what Putin faced in Russia.

In other words, China's economic power could not be used to weaken the U.S., and it is still far from being able to do so. The only option is to start a "nuclear" economic war, one that will see both China and the U.S. facing economic collapse and massive internal power struggle that will be from the very top, to the street level.

So, to sum up, the current conflict will end when one side will achieve its goals, the "victory" cannot be achieved economically, but militarily, and most important, the military "victory" must be achieved without nuclear war.

I have predicted that Russia will re-open the Kharkiv-Sumy front when the Ukrainian defenses will start collapsing, and my estimate for this to happen was between January and April 2024, depending on a number of factors. As you all know by now, after Avdeevka fell, the Ukrainian defenses started crumbling in multiple directions.

When I predicted that this will happen, I was exclusively basing my reasoning on the lack of manpower, and the tremendous destruction that Russian military can bring to the front lines, and the inability of the United States and its vassals to sustain a flow of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, that can replace what Russia is destroying, while using mathematical calculation applied to military power of both sides.

Obviously, I did not have the exact data to work with, this is why my predictions were confirmed at a later date, but they were confirmed, almost 90% of the time. I however said that when certain events that I predicted (the collapse of Ukrainian defense, the start of Kharkiv-Sumy offensive, Ukraine's inability to recruit, the U.S. and vassals inability to provide weaponry and ammo, etc.) will take place, and they did, the margin of error of my calculations, and hence, predictions, will be smaller.

While the current Kharkiv offensive is its early stages, and most, if not all of the people talking about it, are reluctant to quantify it, or to set predictions on how big this will be, my own calculations, again, based on what I have already predicted, is that the current Russian offensive is THE BIG ONE, the one that will break the camel's back.

Based on my calculations, the current manpower of Ukraine is roughly 300,000 troops, barely equipped, and most of them are forced recruits and/or people with minimal military training and combat experience. While this manpower managed to slowdown the Russian advances, by using the vast network of fortifications and fortified towns and villages that they prepared and strengthened since 2014...this is no longer the case.

The front cracked in multiple locations, some Ukrainian brigades fleeing without order, others refused to follow orders, Russia is taking control of towns and villages an increasing rate, since Avdeevka fell, the current fortifications are much weaker, and Russian troops are now passed the mildly hilly areas and went into open terrain. The big picture is that the Ukrainian army is on the brink of collapse, after being reduced in the last 2 years, and especially in the last 3 months (talking about game changers, there is only one : Russian aviation using FAB bombs extensively across the front lines), and there are only 2 options left for Ukraine - capitulation or full retreat across Dniepr river.

 Back in the summer of 2023, the retreat across Dniepr should have taken place THEN, otherwise Ukraine's army will be decimated. Retreating now across Dniepr will only BUY SOME TIME for the United States to send its troops and its vassals troops into Ukraine...IF that is what the U.S. is aiming to do...which I believe it is.

By opening the old fronts in Kahrkiv and Sumy, Russia is extending the current 300,000 poorly trained and equipped Ukrainian troops, to an additional 200-300 km front (I believe it will be much longer, around 600 km, because after Kharkiv, comes Sumy, and after, Chernigiv fronts), from a former 900 km front line.

Mathematically speaking, 300,000 Ukrainian troops defending a 900 km front line, will now have to defend a potential (and in my view 100% certain) a front line that is DOUBLE then that.

Now, the military goal of Russia is to create the illusion that the United States and its vassal have a choice : commit to the fight, directly, and attempt to stop the collapse of Ukrainian army (or commit to this fight after Ukrainian army collapse), or...leave Ukraine being defeated, stay aside, and avoid WW3.

This is only a illusion of choice, because Russia is actually forcing the United States and its vassal to COMMIT to the fight.

 Ukraine will NEVER GET F-16s, and here's why : F-16 is a platform that can only function within the NATO military framework, Ukraine doesn't have proper airfields for F-16s, and if we will ever see Western jets engaging the Russians, those will be piloted by NATO pilots and will operate from NATO airfields.

It is crystal clear that Ukraine lost the war, and the only hope to stop (it's just a hope, really) Russia is a massive influx of trained troops and military hardware, including a large number of fighter jets, helicopters, cruise missiles, etc.

Ukraine DOES NOT HAVE the trained manpower to operate the required quantity of military hardware that is needed to fight Russia. NATO can send ALL OF THEIR JETS AND TANKS to Ukraine...here aren't people to use them. And even if there were, such a large quantity of manpower and hardware will only be successful IF OPERATED WITHIN NATO FRAMEWORK AND DOCTRINE.

What I believe that will happen in the next 45 to 60 days, is, 100%, the collapse of Ukrainian Armed Forces. What is also 100% certain, in my view, is a number of NATO countries will OFFICIALLY ENTER the conflict in Ukraine, during, or right after the Ukrainian army collapses.

What is not certain, is how many NATO troops, how good they are, how equipped they are, and what is their goal. If the United States still believe that Russia can be weakened, those NATO troops will aim, at minimum, to secure Odessa and Kiev, which means that Dniepr river have to be secured, and be the new front line.

At this current attrition rate, the appetite for NATO countries to send troops, the Ukrainian Army have about 45 to 60 days to retreat beyond Dniepr, because they will still have roughly 200,000 troops, and NATO to send in at least 100,000 troops.

You cannot secure the Dniepr river without a MINIMUM of 300,000 troops, even if you blow up all the bridges. Keep in mind that Kiev is right on the Dniepr, split in two by the river. Also keep in mind that Russia can easily re-enter Ukraine from Belarus, making the Dniepr river irrelevant as a natural front line.

But, at least, they (200k Ukrainian and 100k NATO troops) can concentrate on the border of Belarus, on the defense of Kiev, and on the Kherson part of Dniepr, buying enough time to reinforce Odessa, Kiev and Belarusian border, give the proximity of Poland (Belarus and Kiev areas) and Romania (Odessa area).

So, to sum up : Ukrainian army is going to collapse in the next 45 to 60 days, during which they will retreat toward Dniepr, NATO troops will enter Ukraine, with the aim to create a strong defense in Kiev, along Belarusian border and on Kherson part of the Dniepr, to secure Odessa, and later on, with the aim of strengthening the above areas, while deploying along Western bank of the Dniepr.

This is basically, in my view, the only possibility to avoid a nuclear war, the conflict will end up in a stalemate between Russia and NATO, and diplomacy will, hopefully start happening.

But...there is a BIG BUT. The above (hopeful) scenario means a DEFEAT FOR BOTH RUSSIA AND NATO.

Without a serious buffer, Russia's security will always be at risk. Nothing less then what Russia asked NATO in December 2021 (removal of all NATO bases from Eastern Europe) is going to stop Russia. Nothing less then a defeat of Russia is going to stop the United States policy of weakening Russia.

A Russia that occupies half of Ukraine means that NATO was strategically defeated. A Russia that ONLY occupies half of Ukraine, while the other half is full of NATO troops, and all NATO bases are still in place across Eastern Europe, means a defeated Russia in its strategic goals.

If my today's prediction, that Ukraine army will collapse and start retreating across Dniepr, while NATO ofifcially deploys troops in Ukraine will happen during the next 45 to 60 days...let us pray that a compromise will somehow happen, because the alternative is WORLD WAR 3.

 

 


 

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19 minutes ago, Dragon Slayer said:

 Prepare for a flurry of events that will change the world forever, or at least for a very long time.

This conflict between the U.S. and Russia/China is going to end when one side achieves its objectives.

 

Thanks DS, there's lots to think about here and we can see the Ukrainians starting to falter. But looking at the big picture is the east-west conflict of superpowers really what it's about at the highest level, or are they also vassals of a hidden force which controls both sides? 

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1 hour ago, Campion said:

 

Thanks DS, there's lots to think about here and we can see the Ukrainians starting to falter. But looking at the big picture is the east-west conflict of superpowers really what it's about at the highest level, or are they also vassals of a hidden force which controls both sides? 

I'm not qualified to answer that. As a man of strong faith, I would say this really is a time of biblical proportions. Many people globally are waking up, the veil is being removed - apocalypse. I do believe there are some powerful forces in this world on humanity's side. Who they are? That's for you to decide. 🙏

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30 minutes ago, Dragon Slayer said:

I'm not qualified to answer that. As a man of strong faith, I would say this really is a time of biblical proportions. Many people globally are waking up, the veil is being removed - apocalypse. I do believe there are some powerful forces in this world on humanity's side. Who they are? That's for you to decide. 🙏

  

100% I can agree with you that it's ultimately a spiritual battle, whichever religion we may belong to, even though it plays out in the battlefield of the physical world. Each tradition has its names for our allies and enemies; I believe they are real but then there's a challenge of how to avoid divide-and-rule on the spiritual level too? That's certainly happened in the past big time. 

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8 minutes ago, Campion said:

  

100% I can agree with you that it's ultimately a spiritual battle, whichever religion we may belong to, even though it plays out in the battlefield of the physical world. Each tradition has its names for our allies and enemies; I believe they are real but then there's a challenge of how to avoid divide-and-rule on the spiritual level too? That's certainly happened in the past 

Yes, more so now than ever because of CV jabba jabba, which imo targeted and disrupted the pineal gland. The veil. If you're unaffected, and your God gene is still intact, then the qualities that makes us human(e) will kick in big time in the coming months/ years? I truly believe there is a global awakening in the spiritual world, and unfortunately many will not realise it. Tough times ahead, no doubt, but we will overcome if we have faith (the size of a mustard seed). Mussolini 'em.😂🙏

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Russia Is About To Overrun Ukraine’s Defenses – Why Are There No Peace Negotiations?

 

https://www.activistpost.com/2024/05/russia-is-about-to-overrun-ukraines-defenses-why-are-there-no-peace-negotiations.html

 

Quote

No amount of additional funding or arms shipments are going to help them, and it has nothing to do with conservatives questioning the validity of war spending. Anyone who has a basic understanding of military strategy knows that the key to winning is ALWAYS manpower first, logistics second. Not superior technology or armaments, not superior cash and certainly not popular support from foreign interests.

 

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BALLISTICS : RUSSIA/US

The Russian Kinzal hypersonic missile entered service in 2017. We don't know when it was projected, developed and tested, but we can assume at least 5 years prior to entering service, and that is optimistic.

 

In this regard, the gap between the U.S. and Russia, is AT LEAST 12 YEARS. Now, this means nothing, if the U.S. would also be today in testing phase...which they aren't. Not even close.

 

The ONLY tests that the U.S. did was the engine, and this is absolutely irrelevant, because ANY BALLISTIC MISSILE since 1960's is hypersonic. But this is ballistic hypersonics, not cruise hypersonics or glide hypersonics, which are maneuvrable missiles.

 

The engine doesn't matter, the avionics are what that matters, and count for 99% of the progress toward testing a working hypersonic cruise or glide missile.

At this point in time, Russia is at it's 3rd generation of hypersonic missiles, and successfully tested anti-hypersonic defense missile already.

Russia is 3 generations ahead the U.S., and the gap GROWS with everyday that passes, with every Russian strike using Kinzal and Zircon, and testing more and more anti-hypersonic missiles...while the U.S. is basically in the stage of testing the god-damn engine.

 

Not even 5 years ago, Russian artillery was behind the U.S. artillery, both in range, as well as in precision. Not anymore. The latest Russian long range artillery passed the testing, and it is now mass produced, with ranges that surpasses the U.S. Palladin, and the Krasnopol ammunition proved, and there are tons of videos, that have pinpoint accuracy.

 

This gap Russia closed in less then 5 years, and now, they are improving it, and it's already ahead the U.S.

Glide bombs...Russia DIDN'T HAD SUCH BOMBS prior to Ukraine conflict. Now they do, and not only that, but the platform (Su fighters, various variants) that uses those glide bombs, are now capable to carry and deploy SIX of them, while they could only carry and deploy ONE of the, not even 6 months ago.

 

And this is just 2 examples, where Russia caught and surpassed the U.S.

But, back to hypersonics.

Kinzal is still the backbone of Russia's hypersonics, but this is quickly changing. Zircon was designed as a submarine launched hypersonic missile...and since the Ukraine invasion started, just over 2 years ago, made it's way to frigates and corvettes, and just lately, Russian missile defense batteries can also be equipped with Zircon.

S-500 series are now successfully tested to shoot down hypersonic missiles, BOTH ballistic and cruise. The only way to develop a anti-hypersonic platform is to first have hypersonic missiles.

Any engineer worth its salt will tell you that the interceptor must be faster and more maneuvrable then the target. In other words, the Russian S-500 anti-hypersonic variants are FASTER and more MANEUVRABLE then Zircon, which is much faster and maneuvrable then Kinzal...which is more then a DECADE ahead of what the U.S. can do...and the U.S. is STILL designing the avionics, unable to come up to a solution to create a maneuvrable cruise or glide hypersonic missile.

I don't think you understand how difficult it is to create a maneuvrable hypersonic missile.

 

If you think it's easy, just because the Russians have them...ask yourself WHY the U.S., or China, or Japan, or South Korea, to name the few of the so-called "technologically advanced" nations, don't have them.

At some point, yes, they WILL HAVE THEM, but by that point, Russia will be so far ahead, it won't matter...and this is WHY NOBODY BOTHERS TO DEVELOP HYPERSONIC MISSILES, because Russia is so far ahead, it will be a waste of time, money and resources.

The U.S. is dabbling in lasers and microwaves that might be used to shot down hypersonic missiles, but they don't understand, and they prove they do not understand, by continuing to spend time in such systems, as lasers and microwave weapons, that those systems will work ONLY FOR HIGH ALTITUDE, extra atmospheric, BALLISTIC missiles, and against Russian missiles...THEY DO NOT WORK, and I will tell you why.

 

The Avangard glide hypersonic missile detaches it self ABOVE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, far from line of sight of ANY laser or microwave weapon that U.S. MIGHT deploy in the future, and rapidly drops INTO the atmosphere, at low altitude, at incredible speed, so fast in fact, that when the radars are detecting it, IT IS ALREADY TOO LATE.

 

The time between detection and target is so short, any laser or microwave weapon won't have enough TIME to target and destroy Avangard, on top of it being highly maneuvrable at speeds of Mach 20+, and Mach 27+ within proximity of the target, in a relative straight line.

 Russia is always going to be far ahead of anyone else in this department and not only.

In E-War they are so far ahead, it's not even funny, and God knows what they have in the laser department, because trust me on this, not just because Russian scientists are smart, but mostly because the Ukrainian conflict forced them to, they are not only rapidly advancing in all fields, but they already surpassed EVERYONE ELSE (including the U.S.) in hypersonics, e-war, artillery, missile defense, glide bombs and thermobaric weaponry...and they CONTINUE to accelerate in these fields (and highly likely in others), while everyone else is IMPEDED but a very simple fact : they CANNOT TEST SHIT UNLESS THEY START A WAR AGAINST THE VERY COUNTRY THAT HAVE THESE CAPABILITIES.

In other words, whoever wants to "close the gap" with Russia, have to start a war with Russia.

The problem is that Russia will win it, because they are already far ahead.

See the Catch 22 here?

Funny isn't it how Russia gave the impression, to everyone, that it is weak, unorganized, have no industry, no economy, it's corrupted, on brink of rebellion/revolution, their military is outdated, etc., up to the point where everyone is like "WTF? How could we be this wrong?".

As for the part of 100,000 NATO troops backed by hardware...I am sorry, is this a JOKE?

I know modern weapons are such and such, and the manpower doesn't have to be large...but you SERIOUSLY believe that 100,000 NATO troops can defeat Russia?

If you follow Scott Ritter, Col.Douglas McGregor and other esteemed defence experts you will draw the same conclusions.

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Apparently Joe Biden has given a partial permission for the use of US amo in Russia.

There is a new shell factory in Texas destined for Ukraine.

 

Things are moving up.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Washington “cannot afford” to allow Russia to achieve victory in the Ukraine conflict as this would mean losing direct access to vast mineral assets, US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) has said.

 

“They’re sitting on 10 to $12 trillion of critical minerals in Ukraine. They could be the richest country in all of Europe... If we help Ukraine now, they can become the best business partner we ever dreamed of, that $10 to $12 trillion of critical mineral assets could be used by Ukraine and the West, not given to Putin and China,” Graham stated.
https://www.rt.com/news/599068-ukraine-gold-mine-us/

 

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