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Since the March 2020 covid crash the Fed have pumped record breaking trillions into junk bonds and etfs which have brought the equity markets to record highs including the cryptos which have made many rich people in 2020. Stock markets and the real economy are totally disconnected and no bad news seems to flinch the markets. 

 

Now everyone knows its an artifical rise that started since the 2008 banking crisis, when the Fed started it's quantitive easing programme. 

 

The stock markets are rigged by the Roths no question, we don't need to debate that. What do you think they plan to do in 2021? Will they set the prices to even higher records or is another march 2020 crash coming around the corner? 

Edited by makjagger
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From the newspapers, the plan is to keep on printing money and keep on pumping up equities and housing markets. 

 

The problem is, that so far money printing has caused no real issues in the real economy thus far, because the velocity of money is so low. However, when the velocity of money changes, which is likely when things open up again - then this is when you will see the effect of the money printing in terms of real and rapid inflation. I don't think this is planned - they think they can control in perpetuity the economy by printing money.

 

The result will be and we already have a working model - similar to what happenned to Japan in the 1990s. They did the exact same thing we have been doing. The way it ended was an increase in interest rates to curb inflation which precipitated I believe an 80% crash in the stock market and 60% decrease in housing market - from which they haven't recovered from 30 years on.

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@Mr H looks like it, so the bubble will go on for a few years then but watch out when they decide to pull the rug! It's knowing when that will happen is the million dollar question, I guess you have to be on your guard regarding your finances even more.. 

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12 hours ago, makjagger said:

@Mr H looks like it, so the bubble will go on for a few years then but watch out when they decide to pull the rug! It's knowing when that will happen is the million dollar question, I guess you have to be on your guard regarding your finances even more.. 

 

Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball. But if you look at the finances, I would expect a major crash not to happen in years, but before that.

 

There are measures and indicators you can monitor, such as money supply, inflation, velocity of money, unemployment, GDP growth etc all readily available. 

 

I personally think the main things to be concerned is if you hold cash that it gets inflated away, and if you are heavily involved in stocks, that the market may crash. So I would try and move away from cash, and perhaps stick to shorter term trading strategies - make your money - cash out quick.

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.......Essentially the final nail in the coffin will be mumourings of interest rate rises, anything like that would be highly likely indicator of a major crash coming

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24 minutes ago, Mr H said:

.......Essentially the final nail in the coffin will be mumourings of interest rate rises, anything like that would be highly likely indicator of a major crash coming

Possibly but they have said they'll keep it low until the pandemic threat goes.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Is there a thread on this forum for stock market ideas?

Personally I have done very well from investing in Volex PLC in the past couple of years. The Chairman and major shareholder is Nat Rothschild and they do electric cables and cable assembly (everyone will need an electric car cable soon).

It's clear to me that certain individuals run certain companies for a reason (I put Nat Rothschild in that bracket) and I expect Volex will continue to climb.

If we can profit by seeing where we are been taken and by whom, then why not?

Edited by Ed8
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