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kj35

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Everything posted by kj35

  1. keeping this for future reference, https://ahdb.org.uk/news/taking-a-look-at-uk-crop-production-2020-21 Taking a look at UK crop production 2020/21 Friday, 21 February 2020 Market Commentary UK feed wheat futures (May-20) saw a slight recovery yesterday, closing at £153.5/t, up £0.25/t from Wednesday. This rise extended to new crop UK wheat futures (Nov-20) which increased by £0.35/t to £161.75/t. However, on opening this morning, prices for both months have fallen. Weekly French crop conditions were unchanged at 65% of soft wheat rated at good/excellent. French spring barley plantings were reportedly at 20% planted, up 4% on the week. The USDA announced planting intentions for the upcoming season yesterday. US farmers intend to plant 38.04Mha of maize, up 1.74Mha from last year, which if realised would be the largest maize area since 2016. US farmers intend to plant 34.39Mha of soyabeans, up 3.60Mha, on last year as farmers seek to recover from weather affected plantings last year. Alex Cook Trainee Analyst See full bio Taking a look at UK crop production 2020/21 This season is already one of the most challenging for growers in recent times and will be a memorable season for many years in the future. Now that our updated Early Bird Survey (EBS) has been released, it gives us the opportunity to take a look at crop production figures with the use of three different scenarios. Our ‘worst case’ scenario is a measurable instance, rather than trying to pin a figure on a figurative ‘total crop failure’. The three scenarios and the workings behind them are as follows: Best case scenario: Taking the full Early Bird Survey area figure, assuming no further crop area losses and multiplying by a five year average yield to get a best case production figure. Mid-range scenario: This scenario takes a percentage of the EBS area figure and multiplies the area by an average of the best and worst yield, to get a mid-range production figure. For oats, OSR and winter barley, this area figure is 90% of the EBS. This is different for some crops and is explained in detail below. Worst measurable case scenario: This scenario takes a significant cut to the EBS figures and multiplies that by a five year low yield. This is different for some crops and is explained further below. Wheat Taking a look at wheat first, our estimates for the 2020/21 season have production at a worst measurable case scenario of 9.01Mt and a best case scenario of 12.63Mt. The mid-range scenario is a production figure of 10.74Mt, which would be the lowest wheat production season in the last twenty years by over 840kt. Either way, the production figure will have a considerable old-crop carryover added to the balance. The worst case scenario makes use of the total wheat area planted by February 14th, not including any further spring intentions. This figure is 1,217KHa, and is multiplied by the average wheat yield from the wet 2012/13 season which was 7.4t/ha. This then gives a production figure of 9.01Mt. The best case scenario makes use of the full EBS wheat figure assuming the intentions are met. This is a figure is 1,504KHa and is multiplied the five year average wheat yield of 8.4t/ha. This then gives a best case production figure of 12.63Mt. Barley Our estimates for barley have production at a worst measurable case of 4.48Mt, and a best case scenario of 8.50Mt. This wide range is largely due to the degree of spring barley planting which if intentions are fully met, could be at a 47% increase on last year. Given the later plantings dates for spring barley, there is the possibility that production could reach the higher end of this range. Spring barley seems the likely choice for many who are intending to increase spring cropping area. A mid-range estimate has the total barley production at 6.40Mt. The production figure will meet a large carryover of barley which could turn this season into a consecutive year of a large barley surplus. The worst measurable case production figure for spring barley is 2.7Mt, whilst the best case scenario would be 6.0Mt. The best case scenario makes use of the full intended EBS area of 1,042Kha with the five year average yield of 5.8t/ha. The worst case scenario assumes 50% of the intended EBS spring area gets planted, with a five year low yield of 5.2t/ha. As winter barley requires a vernalisation period, it is very unlikely any further winter barley will be planted so the EBS figure used for the different scenarios accounts for crop area losses rather than intentions not being met. Therefore, the worst case scenario assumes a 20% crop loss of what is planted. A yield of 6.4t/ha is used in this scenario, this figure was the UK yield achieved in the 2012/13 season. The worst measureable production figure is then 1.77Mt. The best case winter barley scenario would be a production figure of 2.46Mt. This is assuming that the EBS figure of 347Kha is unaffected by any area losses and is multiplied by a five year average yield of 7.1t/ha. Oilseed rape Our estimates for oilseed rape have a best case scenario production figure of 1.26Mt, and a worst case production figure of 895Kt, with a mid-range estimate of 1.07Mt. The best case figure is still a year on year decline of 489Kt, which alone paints a worrying outlook for the future of the UK rapeseed crop. The best case scenario assumes the published EBS area of 361KHa is unaffected by any further crop reductions and is multiplied by the five year average yield of 3.5t/ha. The EBS figure included an assumption of the scale of winter area losses from crop establishment failure and cabbage stem flea beetle damage. The rapeseed area and yield figures may be affected by further pest damage and disease pressure moving into warmer spring temperatures. The mid-range scenario assumes a 10% loss to our EBS area figures making the area at 324.9Kha, multiplying this by an average yield of 3.3t/ha gives a production figure at 1072.17Kt. The UK’s import demand for rapeseed going forward, will be large either way given the reduction on an already low production figure last year. Oats One spring option which is likely to see an increase in area is oats. Our EBS figures detail intentions to plant increasing 26% on last year. The UK oat area has seen a resurgence in recent years, especially as the crop is a viable option for combating blackgrass. Our estimates for oat production detail a mid-range scenario figure at 1,092Kt, an increase of 20Kt on production last year. The best case scenario has an estimate of 1.28Mt, providing the full intended EBS figure is planted with a five year average yield. The worst case scenario assumes a 20% loss to the EBS intended area, multiplied by the five year low yield of 5.0t/ha, giving a production figure of 916Kt.
  2. Not letting me do full article will try again later. Edit done now
  3. Mention of Golden retrievers old vegan thread, with Monsanto food production and food control reminded me we had just started discussing what seemed to be fake harvest failures and crop reductions on the old forum. As with everything they plan the rumour starts then reality starts following soon after in a carefully scripted 'coincidence.' This from an east Anglia farming paper. Bold text mine East Anglian farmers are facing another huge weather headache after a bone-dry spring sowing season. National Farmers’ Union vice president Tom Bradshaw, who farms at Fordham, near Colchester, said only a few weeks ago, farmers were desperate for dry weather – but now they are having too much of it. It was clear that they were now seeing more weather extremes and volatility than previously, he added. If the dry spell goes on for another two weeks, it would start to cause real problems. On his own farm, his wheat crop would start to be compromised, he
said. Guy Smith, who farms at St Osyth, near Clacton-on-Sea – one of the driest parts of the country – admitted it had been a difficult growing season. “In the last six weeks we have gone from worrying about getting machinery stuck after the winter deluge to fallowing land due to spring drought. Because of lack of rain he is now irrigating the replacement spring wheat to try to get it to grow. To go from getting two to three times our average rainfall in the five months October to February to then get seven weeks with no significant rain is the most perverse turnaround I’ve ever witnessed. “Fertiliser is not getting washed into the crops we did get established in the autumn and anything spring-drilled into cobbly seedbeds is struggling to establish. Rain over the next couple of weeks may put things back on track, but prospects for harvest 2020 look grim.”
  4. Yep. Couldnt agree more. Good job we've got the good guys on our side though. I wonder how many if us...when push really comes to shove...will stand against this. When it means real sacrifice...jobs ...food ..travel. I hope I do. But wouldn't be surprised AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME if I caved. Still the resolve strengthens with every nonsense news report, scandalous political outrage (Boris johnson), exposing of Bill Gates truly evil web of deceit.
  5. Just getting us used to getting our heads scanned for the "mark of the beast " or as I prefer to call it bill gates' microchip.
  6. She can decide to ignore the letter. It's not illegal to do that as you already know. I live in a small village and historic petty disputes are now exhibiting into reports like this. Really reassuring to see here in thid village pretty much 90% are seeing through it.
  7. Strange that. O had a call this morning out of the blue. Probing how well (ill) I am. It's like theyve been scripted to have a ring around
  8. Hiya , you arrived right in the middle of a complete onslaught from trolls and yet immediately several of us spotted you as the real deal. It's hard all this. I'm one down from the vulnerable group although you d never know to look at me - initially - I've even fended off medical staff this morning. My family have been warned that if I get one of these letters then they've not to hand it in as I see it as a DNR order. But that's MY opinion and MY choice. We are also looking after elderly parents one with very advanced dementia who we are having to drug as he wants to go wandering and find his long dead mum. It's frustrating that this could be his last summer and it's spent this way. But my mother in law is adamant that this is the right thing to do and like your mum is glued to government advice. I've had to learn which battles to pick and also that ultimately it is their choice. Also I dont want to give the more close minded members of the family a reason to dismiss REALITY if , god forbid, the in laws contract pneumonia etc as elderly people are apt to do and medics under pressure are forced to attribute COVID to it and suddenly I'm to blame for not washing my hands or wearing a face mask. Much love to you all.
  9. Yep. I'll take that. Especially the parts of me that don't want to know what I already know. Which actually fits the vision I'm continually getting. Thank you Also . Astral projection. Did it accidentally before surgery when already under anaesthesia. Could describe the room and husband leaving and what he did- just like people describe in NDE only wasn't dead. Think / know I've had other experiences of it too but am currently suppressing knowledge as more stuff is seeping out daily and I'm worried that soon the small trickle will become a tidal wave that I know i won't be able to control and I won't be this person anymore. Or perhaps I'm just crackers.
  10. One of my best friends is active in the UK arm of the disclosure project and MUFON having worked in the military and Whitehall. I trust him and he trusts Greer. So I gave him a listen. He seems very credible BUT I just didn't resonate. I think it's very focused just on the aliens and misses the bigger picture. They seem to want the disclosure to happen. I think it's game over unless we are careful when they appear. They seem to buy the friendly alien story. My mate is coming with me and Mr kj35 to see David in Manchester in November. I've read a lot of stuff my friend recommended which did help lead me here. He was initially dismissive of David Icke he is now quite interested and looking forward to the talk. So i dont know. I dont resonate with it. But i dont know if that's because I immediately resonated with Di's stuff. Does Greer discuss the Saturn Moon matrix or spaceship moon at all ? Also..as an example friend told me to watch the curse of skinwalker ranch on history. They are all 'it's a flying saucer ' whereas to me it seems obvious it's above a DUMB. The saucer and the spooky stuff is just covering up military activity / nuclear waste dumping but their focus is aliens and they see them in everything Be quite strange if he 'came out as an alien himself. Don't know where that thought came from. But there you go.
  11. Just looked up Schumann resonance. Might make a good topic for a thread on new forum? Member Dawn did a thread on decalcifying the pineal gland too which explained tons. I've been meditating on this, am not liking the answer I'm getting (for me personally) but just like being here, on this forum, nothing I can do now. I've seen through the matrix and here I am although I really wish I could unsee it.
  12. Sorry. Got emotional there . Seeing that brought home just how much everyone lost.
  13. 12 breaches on my old account. :-( oh well
  14. Hiya , can I ask why? Have a great new protonmail account with a nod to my favourite ever dog in it. So it's a nicer email address. Makes me smile when I use it :-) but was using it on edge for now. Have installed Linux mint but am learning so much am worried if change over everything I'll forget something simple and lose everything.
  15. yes, and happy times at the end there seeing Theo and bflat bickering!! Good times. I feel like an emotional mum. Am genuinely in tears. Who'd have thought it.
  16. Well if I have to copy and paste each item bit by bit on the new platform, so be it. I'm sure between us all we can restore something resembling what we had. As a newish person I can always chip in and help on others threads if they had loads of content e.g Muir
  17. Good enough!!!! THANK YOU literally sat here with mouth dropped.....
  18. two more pages, we got into Aramco sell off Saudi etc . It took a while to start understanding it - it is such a complex topic
  19. ok at least between us all we'll remember the main stuff, meanwhile I'm trolling some of the old stuff that keeps appearing that I never saw on the old forum - food for thought on new threads!!!! thank you
  20. hi don't worry though Ink am sure there is more important stuff to reload
  21. Mainly petrol oil watch and What is the moon?? the petrol oil watch was just getting tasty - me and jaguar Paw were making inroads in understanding what is going on - at least I thought so.
  22. that said I am seeing really old stuff. So they might have done us a favour there is stuff from 2013 coming up. Am going to keep playing.
  23. I hope so because I can only find front pages all the other data seems to be missing. am keeping trying
  24. I'm going to wait if we all start doing it we'll flood everything and it is still just the links it doesn't look like it did. Am going to hang on and see if the webmaster comes up with a better solution
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