US missile shield in Europe could lead to war

[december]

Missile shield in Europe could lead to cold war - Slovak ex-premier

20/ 02/ 2007

http://img.rian.ru/images/5097/00/50970049.jpg

MOSCOW, February 20 (RIA Novosti) - The deployment of elements of the U.S. missile defense system in Central Europe could lead to a deterioration in relations between Russia and NATO, a former prime minister of Slovakia said Tuesday.

Governments of Poland and the Czech Republic reaffirmed Monday their readiness to allow the United States to base elements of its missile shield on their territory.

"The deployment of [missile] bases in the Czech Republic and Poland means that NATO military installations will move closer to the borders with Russia in violation of a verbal promise made by the United States to [ex-Soviet president] Gorbachev at talks ending the "cold war," Jan Carnogursky said.

"These actions could lead to a new "cold war," the Slovak politician said.

Washington plans to install a radar system in the Czech Republic and to deploy missile defense systems in Poland to counter the alleged ballistic missile threat from Iran and North Korea.

But Carnogursky questioned the real purpose of the U.S. plans in Central Europe by saying they will never be transparent.

"When the U.S. missile defense bases start operating in the Czech Republic and Poland nobody except the Americans will know what purpose they are supposed to serve," he said, adding that the move will destroy the balance of power in the region.

Moscow strongly opposes the deployment of a missile shield in its former backyard in Central Europe, describing the plans as a threat to Russian national security.

Army General Yury Baluyevsky, the chief of the Russian General Staff, voiced February 15 a strong warning to the U.S. regarding its missile shield plans by announcing a possibility of Russia unilaterally pulling out of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

The INF treaty eliminated nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (300 to 3,400 miles). By the treaty's deadline of June 1, 1991, a total of 2,692 such weapons had been destroyed, 846 by the U.S. and 1,846 by the Soviet Union.

Commander in Chief of Russia's strategic missile forces (SMF) Nikolai Solovtsov echoed Baluyevsky's remarks by saying that the SMF will be able to track down elements of the U.S. missile defense system if they are eventually deployed in Central Europe.

"If the governments of Poland and the Czech Republic make such a decision, the Strategic Missile Forces will be able to target these systems," Solovtsov said Monday.

He also said Russia possessed the technology and the capability to resume production of intermediate- and short-range missiles in the near future if the need arises.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20070220/61003316.html

[december]

U.S. missile defense: the facts of life

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/russia/images/pusk-mbr-topol-m-plesetsk.jpg

02/ 03/ 2007


MOSCOW. (Yury Zaitsev for RIA Novosti)

On December 13, 2001, George W. Bush declared that the United States would unilaterally withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and a year later he ordered the deployment of an anti-missile defense system.

The reaction of top-level officials in Russia was low-key. Some voiced "regret," and Yury Baluyevsky, then first deputy chief of the General Staff of Russia, said that steps by the United States to put a global anti-missile shield in place by 2010-2015, or perhaps even 2020, "posed no threat to Russia's security."

Indeed, the next 10 to 15 years are going to be a political rather than a military headache for Russia. The technology to develop an effective intercept network, especially against individually targetable warheads, does not currently exist. The only unpleasant note for Russia will be its greater exposure to the system's components, which will be located in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The trajectory of an intercontinental ballistic missile can be divided into four phases.

The first is the boost phase: from launch to engine burnout and jettisoning at an altitude of 200 to 300 kilometers. In the case of solid-propellant missiles, this phase may last up to three minutes, and with liquid-propellant ones up to five. The remaining missile bus contains nuclear warheads, a control system, vernier engines and devices to help the missile penetrate enemy defenses, called "penetration aids." The latter include heavy and light decoys identical in temperature, effective scatter area and flight velocity to live re-entry vehicles, and hundreds of thousands of chaff pieces to confuse an enemy radar.

In the second phase, when instructed by the control system, the bus maneuvers into the first pre-calculated position and fires a warhead and some of the penetration aids against target No. 1. Then it moves into the second pre-calculated position, then the third, and so on, depending on the number of nuclear warheads carried. Each maneuver takes 30 to 40 seconds.

The third phase is the ballistic coasting of all elements released - real and dummy - at altitudes of up to 1,200 kilometers. This phase lasts 15 to 20 minutes.

The final and shortest phase is less than a minute long, with "clouds" of elements entering the atmosphere at an altitude of 110-120 kilometers and at speeds of around 7 km/sec. Air drag causes the dummy elements to fall behind heavier combat units. Nevertheless, identifying a warhead surrounded by a bevy of decoys is incredibly difficult in engineering terms and is unlikely to be achieved in the near future. So no anti-missile system will be effective unless it can destroy missiles in the first, or boost, phase, which affords the best conditions for pinpointing (from the infrared glow of their burning engines) and targeting interceptors.

The destruction of missiles is made easier by their large size and relatively low mechanical sturdiness. But interception at this phase is possible only if a ground-based interceptor is faster than the attacking missile and not more than 500 kilometers away, in the case of liquid-fueled ballistic missiles, or 300 kilometers in the case of solid-propellant missiles. The Americans themselves concede that missiles launched from Russia's hinterland would be impossible to intercept, which explains their desire to move anti-missiles closer to the Russian border.

The success of a counter-strike also depends on the sophistication of an intelligence-gathering system, whose objective is to fix the moment of launch, second-guess the flight path and guide an interceptor to its target. The earlier the launch is detected, the better the chances of a successful hit.

Well before pulling out of the 1972 ABM Treaty, the United States took concrete steps to deploy, along the Russian border, radars capable of spotting missile launches and sending targeting data to interceptors. The first such radar, code-named HAVE STARE, was stationed in Norway. If the radars scheduled to be positioned in the Czech Republic have roughly the same characteristics as the HAVE STARE, they will cover practically all of European Russia, which extends as far as the Urals.

Experts from an authoritative organization, the American Physical Society, have reached some very interesting conclusions. These are contained in a report issued by its working group and dealing with intercept systems for national missile defense. The authors of the paper draw attention to the fact that a successful intercept in the boost phase will prevent a strike against planned targets, but the surviving warheads will fall on populated areas along the flight trajectory and inflict a heavy death toll.

So in the event of a nuclear conflict, the first strike will hit countries which host elements of an American missile defense system. The experts note that the remaining submunitions will under no circumstances fall on the territory of a launching country. Their calculations show that if a missile is hit when traveling at a speed of 3.9 km/sec, its warheads may travel for another 2,000 kilometers, and at 5.5 km/sec, they will go a further 5,000 kilometers.

What counter-measures can be taken to reduce, if not neutralize, the effectiveness of a future American missile interception system?

Shortening the boost phase is considered to be the most radical way of countering interception. That can be achieved by converting liquid-fueled missiles to solid-propellant ones. Future plans envision cutting the boost phase to one minute and ending it at an altitude of 80 to 100 kilometers.

A missile's maneuvering in the track-out phase will also make interception more difficult. Yury Solomonov, who designed Russia's newest missile, the Topol-M, said that it can maneuver both in the vertical and horizontal plane, which has been demonstrated in tests. Another trick is to use a depressed trajectory that practically never rises above the dense layers of the atmosphere.

On balance, while recognizing that the United States' withdrawal from the ABM Treaty was a mistake - one which, however, does not threaten Russian security - it is still necessary to closely monitor developments in the U.S. in this field and work out methods of disabling its anti-missile systems.

Another point to bear in mind is that with cuts in strategic offensive weapons, the role of missile defense will grow considerably because its combat effectiveness is inversely proportional to the number of attacking missiles and warheads. So maintaining a sufficient potential for nuclear deterrence over the next decades is one of Russia's key military and political goals.

Yury Zaitsev is an expert at the Russian Academy of Engineering Sciences.

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070302/61469215.html

[december]

Russia missile forces ready to quit INF Treaty

19/ 02/ 2007

MOSCOW, February 19 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's strategic missile forces are ready to pull out of the INF Treaty with the United States if a political decision is made, the SMF commander said Monday.

The former Soviet Union and the U.S. signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) December 8, 1987. The agreement came into force in June 1988 and does not have a specific duration.

"If a political decision is taken to quit the treaty, the Strategic Missile Forces are ready to carry out this task," Nikolai Solovtsov told a news conference in Moscow.

Army General Yury Baluyevsky, the chief of the Russian General Staff, said last February 15 that Moscow might unilaterally abandon the treaty.

"It is possible for a party to abandon the treaty [unilaterally] if it provides convincing evidence that it is necessary to do so," said Baluyevsky. "We currently have such evidence."

The INF treaty eliminated nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (300 to 3,400 miles). By the treaty's deadline of June 1, 1991, a total of 2,692 such weapons had been destroyed, 846 by the U.S. and 1,846 by the Soviet Union.

Baluyevsky's remarks sounded as a strong warning to the U.S. regarding its plans to deploy elements of its anti-missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Washington plans to install a radar system in the Czech Republic and to deploy missile defense systems in Poland to counter the alleged ballistic missile threat from Iran and North Korea.

Moscow strongly opposes the deployment of a missile shield in its former backyard in Central Europe, describing the plans as a threat to Russian national security.

Solovtsov said Monday that Russia's Strategic Missile Forces will be able to track down elements of the U.S. missile defense system if deployed in Central Europe.

"If the governments of Poland and the Czech Republic make such a decision, the Strategic Missile Forces will be able to target these systems," Nikolai Solovtsov said.

He also said Russia possessed the technology and the capability to resume production of intermediate- and short-range missiles in the near future.

"It is not difficult for us to restart the production of the medium- and short-range missiles because we have preserved all technologies," Solovtsov said. "It could be done quickly if the need arises."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last Friday that the statement by Russia's chief of the General Staff that Russia could quit the INF treaty does not mean a final decision has been made in this regard.

""We are not speaking about a decision that has already been made. We are simply stating the facts," Lavrov said.

Governments of Poland and the Czech Republic reaffirmed Monday their readiness to allow the United States to base elements of its missile shield on their territory.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070219/60957640.html


President Putin inspects Topol-M mobile ICBMs

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Land-based mobile strategic missile system Topol-M getting into position trategic missile division in the town of Teikovo, Ivanovo Region.

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Sergei Ivanov, Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister, and Russian President Vladimir Putin (left to right) inspecting mobile Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile systems while on a visit to a division of the Strategic Missile Forces deployed in Teikovo, Ivanovo Region.

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(From left to right, foreground): Vice-Premeir, Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov, President Vladimir Putin and the strategic missile troops' commander-in-chief Colonel General Nikolai Solovtsov on observing the land-based mobile strategic missile system Topol-M while visiting the guards strategic missile division in the town of Teikovo, Ivanovo region.

[december]

Bush to visit Czech Republic, Poland in June over missile shield -1
15:43 | 21/ 04/ 2007


WARSAW, April 21 (RIA Novosti) - The president of the United States will visit the Czech Republic June 4-5 and Poland June 8 for negotiations on Washington's missile shield plans, the local media said.

George Bush will travel to these Central European nations to discuss deployment of a radar facility in the Czech Republic and a missile base in Poland as part of the American missile shield designed to counter possible attacks from Iran and North Korea.

The Czech government decided March 28 to start the negotiations with the United States over the issue. Preparations for Bush's visit were discussed at a Friday meeting between Czech Foreign Minister Karl Schwarzenberg and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Washington, the Czech news agency CTK said.

At the meeting, Rice told Schwarzenberg that the U.S. was also conducting bilateral talks over the missile shield with Poland, NATO and Russia.

Bush will fly to Poland after attending a summit of the world's leading industrial nations, the Group of Eight, in Germany June 6-8. Poland's Rzeczpospolita newspaper said the American leader would meet with President Lech Kaczynski in his residence on the Baltic Sea coast to discuss the conditions on which elements on the U.S. missile defense system could be deployed in Poland.

Moscow has been strongly opposed to the U.S. plans, saying they would threaten Russia's security and destroy the strategic balance of forces in Europe. President Vladimir Putin has promised Russia would revise its military strategy.

Following a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council in Brussels Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer moved to allay Russia's anxiety and said the placement of the U.S. missile shield would not change the strategic balance because Washington proposed to deploy only ten missile interceptors.

Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, said Tuesday that Washington was ready to allow Russian experts to inspect the likely missile site in Poland to show that it posed no threat to Moscow.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates will visit Moscow and Warsaw next week, and Secretary of State Rice will be in Russia in May. Czech President Vaclav Klaus is expected in Russia April 26-29 at the invitation of President Putin, the Kremlin press service said Friday.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20070421/64110797.html

[december]

Russia sole target for U.S. missile shield in Europe - Ivanov
14:12 | 19/ 04/ 2007

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MOSCOW, April 19 (RIA Novosti) - The U.S. missile defense system in Europe is only directed against Russia, a Russian first deputy prime minister said in a recent interview with The Financial Times.

Sergei Ivanov, who in mid-February was promoted from defense minister and given a supervisory role in the country's nuclear power and defense sectors of industry, was interviewed in his Moscow office April 12.

He said there is no need to intercept medium-range missiles from Iran, and even less so from North Korea, adding that Iran is definitely not going to have ICBMs in the foreseeable future.

"Since there aren't and won't be ICBMs, then against whom, against whom, is this system directed? Only against us," he said.

In January, the United States announced plans to deploy elements of its missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland to counter possible attacks from Iran or North Korea, whose nuclear programs have provoked serious international concerns.

Russia, which has been anxious about NATO bases that have appeared in former Communist-bloc countries and ex-Soviet republics, has blasted the plans to deploy anti-missile systems in Central Europe as a national security threat and a destabilizing factor for Europe.

Asked to comment on a recent statement by General Baluyevsky, chief of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, suggesting that he was linking possible withdrawal from the INF Treaty to U.S. missile defense plans, Ivanov said there is no connection.

"We're not entering into any confrontation with the U.S. and we don't want to. We are not making any anti-U.S. statements," he said.

Russian and U.S. officials are to discuss missile defense plans for Central Europe, which Russia sees as a threat to its national security, next week when U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates visits Moscow, while U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice might visit Russia in May.

Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, said Tuesday that in order to ease the Kremlin's concerns, Washington was ready to allow Russian experts to inspect the site likely to be placed in Poland to show that it poses no threat to Moscow.

The U.S. administration disclosed Wednesday the technical parameters of a missile defense system to be deployed in Poland and the Czech Republic.

It said a total of 10 interceptor missiles in underground silos would be located at the facility in Poland. The interceptor base will require facilities for electronic equipment for secure communications, missile assembly, storage, maintenance, and security.

The State Department said the ballistic missile defense interceptors that would be installed are for purely defensive purposes and have no offensive capability.

"They carry no explosive warheads of any type, relying instead on their kinetic energy alone to collide with and destroy incoming warheads. Silos constructed for deployment of defensive interceptors are substantially smaller than those used for offensive missiles. Any conversion would require extensive modifications, thus precluding the possibility of converting the interceptor silos for use by offensive missile," it said.


http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070419/63961229.html

[darkman]

this is good info who was the supply , and its seams that will be a world war after all if this all goes ahead and not the cold war game theory im diggin my bunker now read for the preadicted 777 as said in a previous post from giftfrom god
thanks for informing us

[december]

this is good info

Hello, Darkman.

Yeah...
I know - the Illuminati don't really report it in their media like CNN or BBC.
They prefer to "inform" the public about sex, crime and family life of the movie stars...



who was the supply

Sorry, I didn't get the question...
What do you mean?



...and its seams that will be a world war after all if this all goes ahead

Well, if Europe won't stop US plans then European cities sure will be turned into dust.



http://img.rian.ru/images/5653/67/56536774.jpg

U.S. Defense Secretary visits Moscow for missile shield talks

10:13 | 23/ 04/ 2007


MOSCOW, April 23 (RIA Novosti) - U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates will arrive in Moscow Monday to discuss the placement of elements of the U.S. missile defense system in Central Europe, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

According to sources close to the Pentagon, the U.S. official is planning to convince his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, that the U.S. missile shield does not pose any threat to Russia, offering Moscow an open information exchange and inspections of construction sites in Poland and the Czech Republic.

In January, the U.S. announced plans to deploy a radar facility in the Czech Republic and a missile base in Poland to counter possible attacks from Iran or North Korea, whose nuclear programs have provoked serious international concerns.

Moscow has been strongly opposed to the U.S. plans, saying they would threaten Russia's security and destroy the strategic balance of forces in Europe.

Russia's first deputy prime minister reiterated last week that the placement of elements of the U.S. missile shield near Russian borders posed a serious concern for the country.

"This issue really concerns us. It is unclear this system is necessary in Eastern Europe - Poland and Czech Republic," Sergei Ivanov said, adding that the U.S. will attempt to explain the reasoning behind it.

Following a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council in Brussels last week, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer moved to allay Russia's anxiety and said the placement of the U.S. missile shield would not change the strategic balance because Washington proposed to deploy only ten missile interceptors.

Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, earlier said that Washington was ready to allow Russian experts to inspect the likely missile site in Poland to show that it posed no threat to Moscow.

Meanwhile, the commander of Russia's Air Force said last Thursday that the U.S. missile defense elements planned for deployment in Central Europe do not pose danger for Russia.

"These systems are not especially dangerous for us... Their cost has more political than military weight," Army General Vladimir Mikhailov told journalists at the Gagarin Air Force Academy in the Moscow Region.

During the current visit, Gates and Serdyukov will also discuss the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), the recent U.S. foreign policy plan for 2007-2012 which irks Russia, and the situation in various regions of the world, including the Middle East, Iran and Iraq.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070423/64158116.html

[december]

Russia rejects U.S. missile defense proposals

18:36 | 24/ 04/ 2007

MOSCOW, April 24 (RIA Novosti) - Russia believes that the U.S. global missile defense system is aimed against it and will not cooperate with Washington on the issue, the chief of the Russian General Staff said Tuesday.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who met with President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov during his recent visit to Moscow, attempted to convince the Russian leadership that the U.S. missile shield does not pose any threat to Russia, and suggested that Moscow could cooperate with Washington on a whole range of issues related to the missile defense system.

However, Russia's top brass reacted swiftly and categorically to the U.S. proposal by blasting Washington's position at a news conference at RIA Novosti Tuesday.

Army General Yury Baluyevsky said Russia came up with a proposal to create a European missile defense system back in 1994 and started its implementation in the framework of the Russia-NATO Council, achieving positive results in the process.

"But today, when we are asked to contribute those results to the creation of a global U.S. missile defense network, we will not cooperate on a project that is clearly aimed against us," Baluyevsky said.

The Russian general questioned the U.S. assessment of a potential missile threat from so-called "rogue" states.

He said the current initiative is the fourth attempt by the United States to build a missile shield in Europe. In the 1980s, Washington put forward the infamous Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) proposal, also citing Iraq, Iran and North Korea as potential sources of the missile threat.

However, two of the above-mentioned countries, Iraq and North Korea, do not pose any threat to the U.S. anymore, and Washington's concern over Iran's nuclear capability also seems to be rather farfetched, Baluyevsky said.

"The real goal [of the deployment] is to protect [the U.S.] from the Russian and Chinese nuclear missile potential and to create exclusive conditions for the invulnerability of the United States," the general said.

Meanwhile, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday at a news conference in Luxembourg that Moscow is still awaiting a clear explanation from the United States over its proposed missile shield plans.

Lavrov said any cooperation must involve the principle of equal partnership from the very beginning and respect for individual interests.

"This [missile defense initiative] assumes cooperation from the start, and, as a first step, must include a joint assessment of existing threats and coordination of measures to be taken," he said, adding that the U.S. proposal lacks such an assessment.

"We are against any proposal that turns Europe into a playground for someone," the Russian minister said. "We do not want to play these games."

The chief of the Russian General Staff reiterated Tuesday that the U.S missile shield in Central Europe would not seriously affect Russia's nuclear potential.

"This system [U.S. missile defense system in Europe] cannot seriously affect Russia's nuclear deterrent capability," Baluyevsky said, adding that Russia will not build its own global missile defense system similar to that of the United States.

"We do not see the threat that our colleagues in the United States are trying to impose on us," the general said.

But he warned Washington that Russia would monitor the U.S. missile defense installations in Europe if they were ultimately deployed, and would develop an adequate response to U.S. actions.

"If we see that these installations pose a threat to Russia's national security, they will be targeted by our forces," Baluyevsky said. "What measures we are going to use - strategic, nuclear or other - is a technical issue."

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak said at the same news conference in Moscow that Russia and the United States have different approaches toward the missile shield issue, which will create obstacles to the development of bilateral relations for a long time.

"It will be a strategic irritant for years to come," the Russian diplomat said.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070424/64290619.html

[december]

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that US plans to build a missile defence system in eastern Europe would raise the risk of "mutual destruction".

Poland and the Czech Republic are keen to allow the US to site missile bases and radars on their territory.

Mr Putin spoke a day after threatening to halt involvement with a treaty limiting conventional arms in Europe.

"The threat of causing mutual damage and even destruction increases many times," he told Russian media.

"This is not just a defence system, this is part of the US nuclear weapons system," the Itar-Tass news agency quoted him as saying after meeting Czech President Vaclav Klaus.

READ MORE -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6599647.stm

[december]

Europe must join missile shield discussion

21:11 | 27/ 04/ 2007



MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates failed to convince the Kremlin that the U.S. missile shield in Eastern Europe would be completely innocuous and pose no threat to Russia, despite all the efforts he made during his visit to Moscow.

His statement that the shield was intended to prevent potential aggressors in the Middle East and Asia from using their ballistic missiles to blackmail Europe or the U.S. and cause chaos actually had the opposite effect.

The Russian General Staff believes that the real goal of the missile defense system being deployed in Europe is to protect the United States from the Russian and Chinese threat and to make the United States invulnerable to missile attacks. "If we see that these installations pose a threat to Russia's national security, they will be targeted by our forces," Chief of the General Staff Yury Baluyevsky said. "What measures we are going to take - strategic, nuclear or other - is a technical issue."

However, not all Russian experts share the position of the General Staff. Many of them think that the 10 interceptors to be deployed in Poland according to the U.S. missile defense plan will pose no threat to Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles because their flight routes to the United States cross the Arctic, not Europe. Interceptors hit their targets head-on, they do not chase them. The same obviously holds true for China's missiles, which would naturally choose the eastern route rather than the western one across Russia and Europe to reach the United States.

Moreover, according to Russian expert Alexander Khramchikhin, an interceptor base in Poland and a tracking radar in the Czech Republic are an ideal combination for destroying Iranian missiles, either intermediate-range ones targeted at Europe or intercontinental missiles aimed at the United States.

What is unclear though, is why Iran should threaten Europe. Why should it aim missiles at Europe even if it had them?

It would be more logical to attack the United States and Israel, Tehran's adversaries ever since 1979. Still, even so, and even if it had suitable missiles, Iran would hardly risk a missile confrontation with those nations because it would be suicidal, considering the counter-strike that would immediately follow.

Another interesting question is whether the United States asked Europe's opinion before rushing to build missile defenses to protect it from the hypothetical threat posed by Iran and other "rogue" nations. Did it take into consideration the interests of those European nations which could become the potential targets of Tehran's aggression because they are the best candidates to be U.S. allies in this theater of war? I am referring to Britain, Germany and France, the key European opponents of Iran's nuclear program and key architects of European security. It was they who pressured Washington into signing the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with the Soviet Union, which rid the world of two classes of ballistic and cruise missiles.

At that time Europe was gravely worried by the escalation of nuclear tensions on the continent, which was largely due to the presence of U.S. intermediate-range Pershing-2s and GLCMs (ground launched cruise missiles) with nuclear warheads, and the Soviet Union's possible reaction. After the treaty was signed, Pershings and GLCMs disappeared from Europe, and Soviet short- and intermediate-range missiles were destroyed.

But today, will Europe agree to go 20 years back in time? Hardly. Europe fears that the White House's missile defense initiative could split it into two camps, the plan's supporters and critics.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Gates sounded quite sincere when saying in a recent article that America could not "go it alone." They said their goal was to field systems capable of protecting not only the United States and its forces, but also "friends and allies" and they needed "defenses in place well before a threat fully emerges."

However, Moscow and a number of European capitals have a different view of this problem. Such plans must assume "cooperation from the start, and, as a first step, must include a joint assessment of existing threats and coordination of measures to be taken," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a news conference in Luxembourg. His counterpart from that country, Jean Asselborn, seconded this opinion by saying that the EU should not be part of the game between Russia and the United States.

The conclusion to be drawn from all this is that the missile defense plans should be discussed by three parties - the United States, Russia and Europe - so that the latter would not become an unwilling pawn in the other two's game.

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070427/64566237.html

[december]

Russia to deploy fixed-site Topol-M ICBMs by 2010 -SMF cmdr.

08/ 05/ 2007

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MOSCOW REGION, May 8 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Strategic Missile Forces will complete the deployment of silo-based Topol-M ICBMs by 2010, the SMF commander in chief said Tuesday.

"Alongside the deployment of Topol-M mobile complexes, we are planning to finalize the deployment of fixed-site Topol-M systems by 2010," Col. Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov said.

He said Monday the Topol-M system will be equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) in the next two or three years, adding the new system will help penetrate missile defenses more effectively.

His statement comes against the background of growing tensions between Moscow and the West regarding plans by the United States to deploy elements of its global antiballistic missile defense system in Central Europe.

Washington has insisted that placing missile shield components in Poland and the Czech Republic is aimed against possible nuclear strikes from rogue states, such as Iran and North Korea, whose controversial nuclear programs have caused international concerns. But Moscow, already unnerved by NATO expansion to former Warsaw Pact member states, has condemned the plans as a threat to national security and a destabilizing factor for Europe.

Gen. Solovtsov said the Strategic Missile Forces would factor in the new threats.

"If the U.S. proceeds with missile defense plans, despite serious opposition from people in Europe, the Strategic Missile Forces will manage to take adequate measures to counter threats to Russia," he said.

But a Russian senior military official said Monday Russia's mid-tem military development program will not be reviewed despite U.S. plans to deploy a missile defense system in Central Europe.

"The Armed Forces development plan through 2010 was approved by the Russian president. It is being implemented and will not be amended," said Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, chief of the General Staff of Russia's Armed Forces.

He said the plan could only be revised if drastic changes occur globally.

"Thus far no such changes have taken place," he said.

Gen. Baluyevsky also said Russia does not intend to use the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty to provide an asymmetric response to U.S. missile shield plans.

"If someone thinks Russia's position on American missile defense and the CFE are linked, they are wrong," he told a briefing in Moscow.

He said Russia could respond with less expensive options, adding that the missile defense program was onerous even for the American budget.

He said Moscow will respond without fail if it sees missile defense as a threat to its national interests.

"Exactly what measures will be taken is a technical matter," he said.

Gen. Baluyevsky said should it break out, a new "Cold War" would set U.S.-Russian relations back 50 years, adding it is vital to prevent such a situation.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070508/65086382.html

[december]

Was Russian CFE moratorium a response to European ABM?

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08/ 05/ 2007



MOSCOW. (Alexander Karavayev for RIA Novosti) - The idea of a moratorium on Russia's implementation of the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, voiced by President Vladimir Putin in his state of the nation address to parliament, did not come as breaking news.

Experts had long been discussing it, although the moratorium will not achieve much because the provisions of the CFE Treaty have pushed the signatories into a deadlock.

Russia has actually fulfilled the treaty (the deployment of Russian troops in the breakaway Moldovan republic of Transdnestr does not violate the treaty's principles). East European countries have not ratified it, and are unlikely to do so. And lastly, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the expansion of NATO call for new deterrence principles.

However, nobody seems to need them, neither the United States, nor the East European NATO countries, who seem to like the old agreement more.

Old Europe accepts Moscow's view on the need to formalize new European realities, but nobody wants to scrutinize the principles and parameters of new treaties.

The conflict over the possible deployment of an American ABM system in Europe has cast a bright light on a situation described in Putin's speech at the Munich security conference. He said then that for the last 15 years Russia had been meeting the United States halfway on security issues, whereas the U.S. replied by increasing its [military] presence in Europe or regarding Russian moves as an expected unilateral retreat. This created the background for the ABM deployment and the CFE deadlock.

Let us review the sides' ABM complaints and arguments. The U.S. ballistic missile shield in Eastern Europe is allegedly designed to protect the United States from Iranian ballistic missiles. NATO should protect Eastern Europe from intermediate-range missiles, which is why Washington intends to sign a separate agreement with each country where it wants to deploy its ABM systems, an agreement that will not be tied to their NATO obligations.

The Kremlin has admitted that these ABM systems will not directly threaten the Russian strategic deterrence forces, but sees no reason for deploying them in Eastern Europe. According to Russian experts, the United States does not need to deploy new systems to effectively deter the missile threat.

Besides, Russia fears that the modernization of the ABM systems could have negative consequences. Yury Baluyevsky, chief of the Russian General Staff, said the U.S. would be able to integrate the East European zone into the global ABM system after 2013, thus incapacitating Russian nuclear forces.

The recent visit by Pentagon chief Robert Gates to Moscow came after Putin had a telephone conversation with President George W. Bush in late March. The American leader proposed holding consultations and supplying embracing ABM data to Russia. Gates took the matter further by saying that the United States invited Russia to join its defensive projects, including ABM, as a partner, and to share early warning information.

However, Moscow's response to the proposal was skeptical. First, space-based interceptors are boosted by ordinary ballistic missiles, and therefore the silos in Poland, where ABM interceptors will be deployed, can easily house live attack missiles. How can this be prevented if the United States has withdrawn from the 1972 ABM treaty? Should the Kremlin simply trust its word?

Under the old treaties, the Americans may not deploy nuclear missiles in Central, let alone Eastern, Europe. However, the deployment of launchers is not limited by any treaties (other than a bilateral agreement between the United States and Poland). So, who will guarantee that the last stage of the missile is not nuclear-tipped?

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the early warning radar in the Czech Republic will be combined with the modernized radar in Thule, Greenland, the radar in Britain, and the ABM radar in Alaska. Information from these radars will be integrated in a single command system where Russia will be denied access. Besides, to guarantee target acquisition by the Czech radar, the Pentagon is analyzing the possibility of deploying a forward-based radar in the South Caucasus, which would be able to detect the launching of missiles from the Southern Federal District and the Urals.

The Russian military argue that if 10 launching sites are being established in Poland now without as much as a polite notification, who will guarantee that their number will not grow to 20 or 30 in five years?

Modernization is another argument. By that time, the capability of the East European ABM may be increased through an extension of the missiles' flight time and an increase in the number of the missiles' multiple independently targeted warheads.

So, Moscow believes that the United States is deploying a strategic ABM system in Europe to protect itself from Russia's nuclear missiles under the pretext of the alleged Iranian missile threat, which is not even a reality at present.

The 20 years of Russian-American relations show that in the absence of a ratified agreement we can rely only on vague personal assurances, this time made by two lame ducks. Putin and Bush are leaving their offices, and so the issue will be taken over by a new U.S. administration, which is likely to take a tougher stance in regard of the Kremlin. Therefore, unless the issue is settled definitely by autumn, the divide in Russian-American relations will grow deeper and more apparent.

Alexander Karavayev is an expert at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies.

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070508/65123886.html

[december]

Poland to open talks with U.S. on shield Monday - FM

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11/ 05/ 2007

KRAKOW (Poland), May 11 (RIA Novosti) - The Polish premier has signed a regulation Thursday night to open talks with the U.S. over the planned deployment of part of its missile shield in the country, the foreign minister told the parliament Friday.

"Polish and U.S. negotiators will start their work in Poland next week," Anna Fotyga said.

The regulation, signed by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, was drafted on the basis of the defense and foreign ministries and the Polish general staff, his foreign minister said.

The U.S. State Department has announced two rounds of talks: March 14 on the status of U.S. personnel and May 23-24 on the political aspects of the planned deployment.

The U.S. has planned to deploy part of its missile defense system in Central Europe, including a radar in the Czech Republic and up to 10 interceptor missiles in Poland.

The governments in both countries have shown signs of approval, resisting calls for national referendums on the issue, which came after Russia's warnings that Moscow would "take appropriate steps" to counter what it sees as a threat to its national security.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20070511/65340331.html

[december]

US Congress Democrats fail to ban missile defense bases in Europe

21:31 | 17/ 05/ 2007



WASHINGTON, May 17 (RIA Novosti) - Democrats in the U.S. Congress tried Thursday to ban the construction of missile defense bases in Central Europe, but their initiative failed to gain the necessary number of votes.

A total of 299 congressmen voted against the amendment urging a cut in 2008 defense spending by over $1 billion, in particular the removal of $150 million in expenditures on radar deployment in the Czech Republic, and 127 voted for the measure.

Earlier, $160 million allocated for missile defense bases in Poland was removed from the defense budget. U.S. President George Bush's initial request for 2008 missile defense spending in Poland and the Czech Republic was for $310 million.

The U.S. announced plans in January to deploy interceptor missiles in Poland and a missile defense radar in the Czech Republic as part of its missile shield aimed at countering possible threats from "rogue" states like Iran or North Korea.

Russia has repeatedly condemned the plan, claiming it could be a "destabilizing factor" and could threaten its national security, and warned that "appropriate measures" would be taken in response.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20070517/65664702.html