Plateau Oil

[Anders Lindman]

My guess is that all major oil fields have peaked and are in a steady decline, but what I think will happen is that oil companies will begin to use smaller and smaller wells in addition to improved technology for extracting non-cheap oil.

There will be a tug-of-war between an increased demand for oil and the production capacity for oil which I think will lead to oil production and consumption taking on a very flat curve instead of a declining curve as many believe will happen.

The oil price may rise still further but even the price will reach a stable plateau I believe, and both oil production and consumption will remain at a very flat level for a long time to come, maybe even for several decades to come.

This sustained oil plateau can create a very stable feedback system between oil production, consumption and price. Thus a decline in cheap oil may actually be a good thing that stabilizes the world economy and promotes innovations for complementary energy sources.

[umbrex]

My guess is that all major oil fields have peaked and are in a steady decline, but what I think will happen is that oil companies will begin to use smaller and smaller wells in addition to improved technology for extracting non-cheap oil.

There will be a tug-of-war between an increased demand for oil and the production capacity for oil which I think will lead to oil production and consumption taking on a very flat curve instead of a declining curve as many believe will happen.

Stating the obvious

The oil price may rise still further but even the price will reach a stable plateau I believe, and both oil production and consumption will remain at a very flat level for a long time to come, maybe even for several decades to come.

this is contradictionary, are you aware of the small country of china demanding more and more oil as they develop even further ?

This sustained oil plateau can create a very stable feedback system between oil production, consumption and price. Thus a decline in cheap oil may actually be a good thing that stabilizes the world economy and promotes innovations for complementary energy sources.

the prices for on gold and oil will soar and the only valid point is the increase in green technology.

sorry, do your homework, please.

[Anders Lindman]

Stating the obvious



this is contradictionary, are you aware of the small country of china demanding more and more oil as they develop even further ?



the prices for on gold and oil will soar and the only valid point is the increase in green technology.

sorry, do your homework, please.

Yes, it's obvious that the demand for oil is increasing. That's why there will be a tug-of-war between oil demand and supply. The global oil production seems to already have reached a plateau. The strong demand for oil will keep pressure on oil producing companies and nations. That will keep the overall oil production in the world busy and as I believe keep the level of production up at the same plateau level as we have seen the last years. The production of alternative fuels will no doubt increase, but that cannot replace the demand for oil which will remain high for a long time to come.

[umbrex]

The production of alternative fuels will no doubt increase, but that cannot replace the demand for oil which will remain high for a long time to come.

so now your saying the price of oil will keep rising ?

[Anders Lindman]

Notice in the graph below that the plateau has already started. Oil production entered a plateau around 2004, and my guess is that the oil production will remain more or less at that level for many years to come.

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PU200709_Fig1c_small.png

[Anders Lindman]

so now your saying the price of oil will keep rising ?

In the short run I believe the oil price will continue to rise, but then it will decrease again when it has reached a level where it is possible to make profit on producing non-cheap oil. After a while the oil price will begin to stabilize.

[umbrex]

Notice in the graph below that the plateau has already started. Oil production entered a plateau around 2004, and my guess it that the oil production will remain more or less at that level for many years to come.

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PU200709_Fig1c_small.png

that wasn't the point....

but let's take it to the door.

so oil has reached its peak. the geopolitical situation reflects this more and more and have defined the last 4-5 years major events.

The demand will keep rising due to more and more 3rd world countries standards of living is rising as well. So more cars, air conditioners etc etc.

How will this influence the price of oil ?

The price will keep rising.

not even considering the impact of a war on iran or an even more tense situation between the east and the west.

[Anders Lindman]

that wasn't the point....

but let's take it to the door.

so oil has reached its peak. the geopolitical situation reflects this more and more and have defined the last 4-5 years major events.

The demand will keep rising due to more and more 3rd world countries standards of living is rising as well. So more cars, air conditioners etc etc.

How will this influence the price of oil ?

The price will keep rising.

not even considering the impact of a war on iran or an even more tense situation between the east and the west.

The graph was just an indication of that we might already have reached a kind of limit in oil production.

Let's say that cheap oil costs $5 per barrel to produce. Cheap oil is taken from wells that have high pressure in them so it's very easy to pump out the oil from those wells. Non-cheap oil may cost $50 per barrel to produce, because it's much more difficult to take out of the ground or from tar sands etc.

Probably the cheap oil is beginning to run out all over the world, but there's a LOT of non-cheap oil left. So if the oil price remains for example at $90 per barrel, then it is profitable to produce the non-cheap oil, and if the producers in the world manage to produce lots of the non-cheap oil then that will keep the oil price from increasing further.

Conflicts in the world will often affect the oil price, but hopefully the conflicts will only be temporary.

[Anders Lindman]

But of course, if there will be a plateau in oil production for a long time and the demand for oil keeps on increasing, the oil price can reach very high before it stabilizes. I doubt that the price will reach $10,000 (adjusted for inflation) per barrel. But what about $1000 per barrel? :eek:

Matt Simmons has said that oil could cost $300 per barrel. Maybe that could be the level where the oil price stabilizes around. To speculate wildly. :D

[chris]

Peak oil is a myth, the Russians are drilling deeper than fossil remnants.

[chris]

http://www.vialls.com/wecontrolamerica/peakoil.html

[cruise4]

And the loss of Iraqi Oil? There's huge reserves in Iran in a fairly small region isn't there? Then there's OPEC, artificially setting whatever level it wants. Maps I have seen of potential and existing oil supplies have given me the impression there's far more left than has come out so far. Are you aware some oil wells dry up and then somehow refill themselves?

Can't prove it, but I'm convinced free energy is easily obtainable for all, right now. Peal Oil is a myth to enable 'them' to obtain peak profits and cartel power, and is essential for the CO2 Global warming farce.

[carlg1212]

Peak oil is a myth, the Russians are drilling deeper than fossil remnants.

It can't be a myth, because it doesn't reproduce. Eventually (hundreds or thousands or millions of years) it will be gone.

[montag]

It can't be a myth, because it doesn't reproduce. Eventually (hundreds or thousands or millions of years) it will be gone.
Maybe it does reproduce..;)

Abiotic Theory

There is an alternative theory about the formation of oil and gas deposits that could change estimates of potential future oil reserves. According to this theory, oil is not a fossil fuel at all, but was formed deep in the Earth's crust from inorganic materials. The theory was first proposed in the 1950s by Russian and Ukranian scientists. Based on the theory, successful exploratory drilling has been undertaken in the Caspian Sea region, Western Siberia, and the Dneiper-Donets Basin.

The prevailing explanation for the formation of oil and gas deposits is that they are the remains of plant and animal life that died millions of years ago and were compressed by heat and pressure over the years. Russian and Ukranian geologists argue that formation of oil deposits requires the high pressures only found in the deep mantle and that the hydrocarbon contents in sediments do not exhibit sufficient organic material to supply the enormous amounts of petroleum found in supergiant oil fields.

The abyssal, abiotic theory of oil formation continues to receive attention due to the work of retired Cornell astronomy professor Thomas Gold, known for several theories that were initially dismissed but eventually proven true, including the existence of neutron stars. He has also been wrong, however; he was a proponent of the "steady state" theory of the universe, which has since been discarded for the "Big Bang" theory. Gold's theory of oil formation, which he expounded in a book entitled The Deep Hot Biosphere, is that hydrogen and carbon, under high temperatures and pressures found in the mantle during the formation of the Earth, form hydrocarbon molecules which have gradually leaked up to the surface through cracks in rocks. The organic materials which are found in petroleum deposits are easily explained by the metabolism of bacteria which have been found in extreme environments similar to Earth's mantle. These hyperthermophiles, or bacteria which thrive in extreme environments, have been found in hydrothermal vents, at the bottom of volcanoes, and in places where scientists formerly believed life was not possible. Gold argues that the mantle contains vast numbers of these bacteria.

The abiogenic origin of petroleum deposits would explain some phenomena that are not currently understood, such as why petroleum deposits almost always contain biologically inert helium. Based on his theory, Gold persuaded the Swedish State Power Board to drill for oil in a rock that had been fractured by an ancient meteorite. It was a good test of his theory because the rock was not sedimentary and would not contain remains of plant or marine life. The drilling was successful, although not enough oil was found to make the field commercially viable. The abiotic theory, if true, could affect estimates of how much oil remains in the Earth's crust.

The abiogenic origin theory of oil formation is rejected by most geologists, who argue that the composition of hydrocarbons found in commercial oil fields have a low content of 13C isotopes, similar to that found in marine and terrestrial plants; whereas hydrocarbons from abiotic origins such as methane have a higher content of 13C isotopes.
http://www.enviroliteracy.org/article.php/1130.html

[chris]

This is a segment half way down the said article.

This is the point at which the second massive advantage derived from ultra-deep oil comes into play. Do you remember how puzzled the reservoir engineers were when they discovered that their existing reserves were being "topped up" from below? They later discovered that what they were really observing were naturally occurring ultra-deep oil wells, leaking vast quantities of oil from the mantle of the earth upwards through fractures into what we nowadays refer to as "sedimentary oilfields", located relatively close to the surface. As the production companies draw oil out of these known reservoirs through oil wells, field pressure is slightly reduced, thereby allowing more ultra-deep oil to migrate up from the mantle and restock the reservoir from below.
Russian studies of their own ultra-deep wells and those in the White Tiger field in Vietnam, indicate in very rough terms that migration from the mantle is probably 20-30% less than production at Middle East wellheads, meaning in turn that if the flow rates of existing Iraqi and Saudi wells are reduced by about 30%, oil supply and production can and will continue forever, constantly replenished by ultra-deep oil from the mantle itself. It goes almost without saying that even with production reduced by 30%, there is more than enough oil in the Middle East to provide for America's increasing usage for at least the next century. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why your sons and daughters have died and will continue to die in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East.

http://www.vialls.com/wecontrolamerica/peakoil.html

[Anders Lindman]

Peak oil is a myth, the Russians are drilling deeper than fossil remnants.

Oil production can be separated into cheap oil and non-cheap oil. The cheap oil is taken from oil wells with natural high pressure and is easy to produce. The world's cheap oil has definitely already peaked I think. But there are huge amounts of non-cheap oil left, and so I don't think there will be a peak in oil production anytime soon. However, the non-cheap oil seems to be very difficult and time-consuming to produce, and so I believe that they will have to struggle very hard to keep the production up. But there is also an enormous pressure on demand, and that will make sure that the oil production will remain at a plateau rather than decline as some peak oil believers say.

[cruise4]

Not a believer, either way, but this idea that Oil comes from vast deposits of rotting vegetation and animal matter just strikes me as extremely unlikely.

[chris]

Not a believer, either way, but this idea that Oil comes from vast deposits of rotting vegetation and animal matter just strikes me as extremely unlikely.

I remember being first taught that in school and I thought, 'That's a bit strange.'

There is plenty of light and heavy oil, the light oil deposits keep getting replenished also, just read that article. Another thing is that they are not even looking for the oil, if they were, they probably would find way more light oil.

[Anders Lindman]

Not a believer, either way, but this idea that Oil comes from vast deposits of rotting vegetation and animal matter just strikes me as extremely unlikely.

I haven't researched that but I think you could have a point there. Decomposed organic material turns into top soil as I understand it, and how could that turn into oil? :confused:

[carlg1212]

This is a segment half way down the said article.This is a segment half way down the said article.


Quote:
This is the point at which the second massive advantage derived from ultra-deep oil comes into play. Do you remember how puzzled the reservoir engineers were when they discovered that their existing reserves were being "topped up" from below? They later discovered that what they were really observing were naturally occurring ultra-deep oil wells, leaking vast quantities of oil from the mantle of the earth upwards through fractures into what we nowadays refer to as "sedimentary oilfields", located relatively close to the surface. As the production companies draw oil out of these known reservoirs through oil wells, field pressure is slightly reduced, thereby allowing more ultra-deep oil to migrate up from the mantle and restock the reservoir from below.

The "migration" they're talking about is when oil moves from one well to another. That explains why some wells dry up while others suddenly seem overfull.

Whatever the case, matter cannot be created. Oil will eventually be depleted.

[cruise4]

Discovery backs theory oil not 'fossil fuel'New evidence supports premise that Earth produces endless suppl

http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59991

A study published in Science Magazine today presents new evidence supporting the abiotic theory for the origin of oil, which asserts oil is a natural product the Earth generates constantly rather than a "fossil fuel" derived from decaying ancient forests and dead dinosaurs.

The lead scientist on the study ? Giora Proskurowski of the School of Oceanography at the University of Washington in Seattle ? says the hydrogen-rich fluids venting at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean in the Lost City Hydrothermal Field were produced by the abiotic synthesis of hydrocarbons in the mantle of the earth.

The abiotic theory of the origin of oil directly challenges the conventional scientific theory that hydrocarbons are organic in nature, created by the deterioration of biological material deposited millions of years ago in sedimentary rock and converted to hydrocarbons under intense heat and pressure.

While organic theorists have posited that the material required to produce hydrocarbons in sedimentary rock came from dinosaurs and ancient forests, more recent argument have suggested living organisms as small as plankton may have been the origin.

The abiotic theory argues, in contrast, that hydrocarbons are naturally produced on a continual basis throughout the solar system, including within the mantle of the earth. The advocates believe the oil seeps up through bedrock cracks to deposit in sedimentary rock. Traditional petro-geologists, they say, have confused the rock as the originator rather than the depository of the hydrocarbons.

Read more:
http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59991