Peak Oil is Here

[Anders Lindman]

"World oil production peaked last year and will start to drop by several percent a year, a shift that will force a drastic structural change to the global economy, according to a new report unveiled today by the Energy Watch Group.
...
"The most alarming finding is the steep decline of the oil supply after peak," said Jörg Schindler of the Energy Watch Group.
...
While industry data indicated there are about 1,255 gigabarrels (a gigabarrel is one billion barrels) of oil left, the Energy Watch Group estimates the real number is closer to 854 gigabarrels.

The Energy Watch Group made that determination by using actual production data, which is more verifiable, than reserve data provided by oil suppliers and companies.

A leader of the world's largest oil-producing country agreed with the Energy Watch Group's assessment.

"The oil boom is over and will not return," said King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. "All of us must get used to a different lifestyle."

From: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/423420/peak_oil_is_here.html

[Anders Lindman]

Another news article from today:

"Pessimism was in the air concerning future oil production. Writing for Platts, John Kingston was accurate in his conclusion that "all in all, [it was] a terrific conference. But don't attend unless you've taken your Prozac." Most speakers, including industry veterans like Henry Groppe, believe that the peak is upon us now, or at best only a few years away. Richard Nehring, an "optimist" who participated in the conference's peak oil dialogue panel, told Steve Andrews that "I have a hard time seeing us get to 90 million barrels a day by 2020" (ASPO-USA interview, October 8th). With the world in a plateau of about 85 million barrels per day in 2007, it's not much of a stretch to say the world's in trouble."

http://peakwatch.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/10/22/cantarell_oil_production.jpg

From: http://www.energybulletin.net/36102.html

[1 2 free]

I don't buy into the peak oil thing. The fact that terrorism, global warming and peak oil have all become major issues at the same time and are all interlinked is too suspect. 'Just a coincidence, nothing to worry about' as Ickey would say.

[montag]

Peak oli is a crock designed to create more fear and uncertainty as well as justifying the high price of oil..

http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/Theory/SustainableOil/index.html

[Anders Lindman]

I don't buy into the peak oil thing. The fact that terrorism, global warming and peak oil have all become major issues at the same time and are all interlinked is too suspect. 'Just a coincidence, nothing to worry about' as Ickey would say.

I have a growing suspicion that all those things; terrorism, global warming, war in Afghanistan, war in Iraq, potential war in Iran, Russia, Venezuela and Iran abandoning the petrodollar, the petroeuro vs petrodollar conflict are directly linked to a common cause, namely: peak oil is here!!!

Notice the almost total silence about peak oil in mainstream media. In my estimation, the media will start to report about peak oil soon. Not that they want to. They have to.

[Anders Lindman]

Peak oli is a crock designed to create more fear and uncertainty as well as justifying the high price of oil..

http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/Theory/SustainableOil/index.html

It could be true that oil doesn't come from fossils, but look at the U.S. oil production; it peaked in the 70s and has declined ever since leading to America having to import more and more oil. So even if oil has non-fossil origin, it is still depleted very rapidly from a geological time perspective.

[montag]

It could be true that oil doesn't come from fossils, but look at the U.S. oil production; it peaked in the 70s and has declined ever since leading to America having to import more and more oil. So even if oil has non-fossil origin, it is still depleted very rapidly from a geological time perspective.
The Americans just aren't digging deep enough, the Russians are digging up to nearly fifteen kilometers underground in Russia, Vietnam and China through solid granite and finding huge reserves of oil..

http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/school/moviepage/03.01.01.html

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/nts52104.htm

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47673

[1 2 free]

Peak oli is a crock designed to create more fear and uncertainty as well as justifying the high price of oil..

http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/Theory/SustainableOil/index.html

It's a good way to lock people into survival mode too (David talks about this in the Mount Shasta video).

[montag]

It's a good way to lock people into survival mode too (David talks about this in the Mount Shasta video).
Exactly! I just watched the Mt Shasta vid yesterday, one of his best talks IMO..

[Anders Lindman]

It's a good way to lock people into survival mode too (David talks about this in the Mount Shasta video).

Do you mean David Icke is saying that peak oil is a fraud? :eek:

[Anders Lindman]

The Americans just aren't digging deep enough, the Russians are digging up to nearly fifteen kilometers underground in Russia, Vietnam and China through solid granite and finding huge reserves of oil..

http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/school/moviepage/03.01.01.html

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/nts52104.htm

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47673

Maybe. They could on purpose have made themselves dependent on imported oil rather than digging deeper. One reason could be to uphold the petrodollar recycling system. But the U.S. government and the Fed must in that case have known about that and in advance could have started to dig deeper in order to keep the oil price down.

A company like Exxon/Mobil is so powerful that they would have dug deeper if that would have made any sense. The article talks about 100 barrels per day produced from deep wells. That's way too little oil for oil companies to bother extracting I guess.

[freedomnonfighter]

I think our Peak Inhumanity is more important than this alleged and so-called "Peak Oil"

"Peak Oil" can't really be proven - but for Peak Inhumanity... just turn on the television or walk down the street ;)

Fossil fuels as an energy source are absolute joke to begin with anyway...

[montag]

Maybe. They could on purpose have made themselves dependent on imported oil rather than digging deeper. One reason could be to uphold the petrodollar recycling system. But the U.S. government and the Fed must in that case have known about that and in advance could have started to dig deeper in order to keep the oil price down.

A company like Exxon/Mobil is so powerful that they would have dug deeper if that would have made any sense. The article talks about 100 barrels per day produced from deep wells. That's way too little oil for oil companies to bother extracting I guess.
Maybe not, but what about this one..

Asia's deepest oil well under construction

26-04-05 Petroleum workers in China has begun the sinking of an oil well with a designed depth of 8,400 meters, at Tahe Oilfield in Tarim Basin, in southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

Upon completion, the oil well, named as Tashen No. 1 well, will be the deepest of the kind in the whole of Asia, according to sources from its developer, the Northwest Company of Sinopec, the country's largest producer and marketer of oil products.
The corporate sources cited the drilling as aimed to delve into the geological structure of the in-depth strata with Tahe Oilfield, where the potential for petroleum reserve is estimated at 1.2 bn tons, with the sinking of the new oil well.

Tahe Oilfield, situated at the northern fringe of the Tarim Basin, is proven to have the reserve of 530 mm tons of petroleum and 59 bn cm of gas resources, with a cylinder-shape distribution form taken shape.
The oilfield plans to turn out 4.2 mm tons of crude this year and hopes to attain a production capability of 10 mm tons by the year 2010.
http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/nts52104.htm

[Anders Lindman]

the media will start to report about peak oil soon.

Correction. They have already started:

"KING: Gas prices going to go down?

GORE: Well, I've seen a number of -- over the last several decades, I've seen this happen several times, where they spike and then they do come back down.

But each time they go to a higher plateau. We almost certainly are at or near what they call peak oil, defined as having recovered a majority of the oil reserves at a certain price, affordability range. And so, with the new pressure on the consumption side from China and India, if they come back down, they won't stay down long."

From: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0606/13/lkl.01.html

Global warming my ass. Al Gore's campaign has been about peak oil all the time.

[Anders Lindman]

I think our Peak Inhumanity is more important than this alleged and so-called "Peak Oil"

"Peak Oil" can't really be proven - but for Peak Inhumanity... just turn on the television or walk down the street ;)

Fossil fuels as an energy source are absolute joke to begin with anyway...

As long as the statistics are kept secret, it will be difficult to prove of course, but we can look at a quote from my initial post in this thread:

"The Energy Watch Group made that determination by using actual production data, which is more verifiable, than reserve data provided by oil suppliers and companies."

[Anders Lindman]

Maybe not, but what about this one..

Asia's deepest oil well under construction

26-04-05 Petroleum workers in China has begun the sinking of an oil well with a designed depth of 8,400 meters, at Tahe Oilfield in Tarim Basin, in southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

Upon completion, the oil well, named as Tashen No. 1 well, will be the deepest of the kind in the whole of Asia, according to sources from its developer, the Northwest Company of Sinopec, the country's largest producer and marketer of oil products.
The corporate sources cited the drilling as aimed to delve into the geological structure of the in-depth strata with Tahe Oilfield, where the potential for petroleum reserve is estimated at 1.2 bn tons, with the sinking of the new oil well.

Tahe Oilfield, situated at the northern fringe of the Tarim Basin, is proven to have the reserve of 530 mm tons of petroleum and 59 bn cm of gas resources, with a cylinder-shape distribution form taken shape.
The oilfield plans to turn out 4.2 mm tons of crude this year and hopes to attain a production capability of 10 mm tons by the year 2010.
http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/nts52104.htm

In a video they said that Europe and USA would be affected first by a decline in oil production and that Asia would be able to manage longer.

Maybe Al Gore is doing a necessary job to prevent a total world oil war. :confused:

[Anders Lindman]

Maybe Al Gore is doing a necessary job to prevent a total world oil war. :confused:

A little off-topic, but I think Al Gore could deserve a little more credit. Check out the beginning of this video:

Ron Paul, Al Gore, Keith Olbermann, Michael Ruppert - YouTube

[john white]

Do you mean David Icke is saying that peak oil is a fraud? :eek:

I don't know for sure what Ickes views are on "peak Oil" but I'm not aware of him stating it is wrong

I have a solid feeling peak oil may very well be right

The problem is with people calling Peak Oil "a scam" (or whatever) is that the impications of Peak Oil are actually rather scary: not least with the implications for global food supply, but also at removing that veneer we call "normality" where cars run and plastic goods are everywhere. A world of scarcity is a very different place, where the real insides of people come out

To survive a world of scarcity takes spiritual strength

Who here could say for sure he was strong enough?

So for all of the above, when I hear people call "peak oil" a scam, I wonder

[pigpot]

What ya gonna do if it is gone and there's no alternative Mad Max!!!

pigpot, or maybe I'm Maxxxxxxxxxxxxxx!!!

And don't give me a shit answer, for real please......

Now I expect the shit answer, but please do try!!!!!!!!

pigpot, or maybe I'm Maxxxxxxxxxxxxxx!!!

[montag]

So for all of the above, when I hear people call "peak oil" a scam, I wonder
Wonder what exactly?:confused:

Do you know that the Russians are drilling in to solid granite of the coast of Vietnam and finding oil? According to orthodox theory oil should only be found in sedimentary rock..
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47673

[Anders Lindman]

I don't know for sure what Ickes views are on "peak Oil" but I'm not aware of him stating it is wrong

I have a solid feeling peak oil may very well be right

The problem is with people calling Peak Oil "a scam" (or whatever) is that the impications of Peak Oil are actually rather scary: not least with the implications for global food supply, but also at removing that veneer we call "normality" where cars run and plastic goods are everywhere. A world of scarcity is a very different place, where the real insides of people come out

To survive a world of scarcity takes spiritual strength

Who here could say for sure he was strong enough?

So for all of the above, when I hear people call "peak oil" a scam, I wonder

I wonder too. Exxon/Mobil employs 20.000 scientists just to collect data! :eek: :eek: :eek: Did anyone say DESPERATION! Check out this Australian video:

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm

[montag]

I wonder too. Exxon/Mobil employs 20.000 scientists just to collect data! :eek: :eek: :eek: Did anyone say DESPERATION! Check out this Australian video:

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm
Pure fear mongering..

[Anders Lindman]

What ya gonna do if it is gone and there's no alternative Mad Max!!!

pigpot, or maybe I'm Maxxxxxxxxxxxxxx!!!

And don't give me a shit answer, for real please......

Now I expect the shit answer, but please do try!!!!!!!!

pigpot, or maybe I'm Maxxxxxxxxxxxxxx!!!

YouTube - Broadcast Yourself.

:D

[Anders Lindman]

Pure fear mongering..

"Panic is not what anyone wants" -- Counselor Hamman in the Matrix Reloaded movie

Who benefits? If it is only about manipulating the market to increase the oil price, then why hasn't it been done before?

Matt Simmons (Bloomberg): Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300 - YouTube

[montag]

"Panic is not what anyone wants" -- Counselor Hamman in the Matrix Reloaded movie

Who benefits? If it is only about manipulating the market to increase the oil price, then why hasn't it been done before?
I don't know, but I do know that with the great changes happening now moving in to the post industrial era the elite want us confined in habitat areas, they don't want us independent with our own transport. Motor vehicles and air travel will become a thing of the past except for the ultra wealthy. I think peak oil ties in with all this just as climate change does.

[Anders Lindman]

I don't know, but I do know that with the great changes happening now moving in to the post industrial era the elite want us confined in habitat areas, they don't want us independent with our own transport. Motor vehicles and air travel will become a thing of the past except for the ultra wealthy. I think peak oil ties in with all this just as climate change does.

Ok, what say you now:

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/oil.decline/

Just came in on Google News 42 minutes ago!!!

[1 2 free]

Ok, what say you now:

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/oil.decline/

Just came in on Google News 42 minutes ago!!!

Al Gore supports it. The mainstream media promote it. It's a golbal threat. It's scary. It locks us into survival mode. What more evidence do you need that this is bullshit?

[montag]

Ok, what say you now:

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/oil.decline/

Just came in on Google News 42 minutes ago!!!
What do you want me to say? The EWG was founded by a member of the green party and it is supported by companies and organizations promoting regenerative energy sources..
I can't access the Energy Watch Groups site on this server, so I can't get any more information on them than this ATM. Maybe you'll have better luck..:)
www.energywatchgroup.org/

[Anders Lindman]

What do you want me to say? The EWG was founded by a member of the green party and it is supported by companies and organizations promoting regenerative energy sources..
I can't access the Energy Watch Groups site on this server, so I can't get any more information on them than this ATM. Maybe you'll have better luck..:)
www.energywatchgroup.org/

OMFG! I could access that site earlier today, now it's totally jammed. Massive traffic jam I presume.

[Anders Lindman]

OMFG! I could access that site earlier today, now it's totally jammed. Massive traffic jam I presume.

I wonder if they will be able to keep the oil price down, or will it reach above $100 per barrel already today?

[montag]

I wonder if they will be able to keep the oil price down, or will it reach above $100 per barrel already today?
Don't worry bout it mate get a push bike, I got one a couple of years ago and have never looked back, I'm much healthier too.;):D

[Anders Lindman]

Don't worry bout it mate get a push bike, I got one a couple of years ago and have never looked back, I'm much healthier too.;):D

lol. I'm betting heavily on water fuel! :D

[Anders Lindman]

I wonder if they will be able to keep the oil price down, or will it reach above $100 per barrel already today?

They managed to keep the oil price down. It is now 'only' at $91.13. :D

They will probably be able to even lower the price considerably by using zillions of dollars. Yet, that kind of charade cannot be upheld indefinitely since they cannot create oil out of thin air as they can do with money.

[Anders Lindman]

"Attention at those meetings will focus on Saudi Arabia, which takes the lead role in the cartel's decisions because it is the group's largest producer and the only member with major excess production capacity."

From: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119335553706972227.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

In your dreams Mr. Neil King Jr. from The Wall Street Journal. Saudi Arabia has already peaked in oil production a looong time ago. Excess production capacity my ass. :D

[Anders Lindman]

I tried to do find evidence against peak oil, but instead I found (based on the same paper as in the initial post in this thread):

Peak oil already arrived in 2006!!! [my exclamation marks]

"Warnings that the capacity for global oil production is soon to drop off were wrong: it’s not soon, it’s now"

"Energy Watch Group is a Germany-based group of independent scientists and energy experts who this month released a report that includes nearly 100 pages of exhaustive technical analysis of every oil producing field in the world and every known and proven reserve.

The report concludes that global oil production has already peaked at about 83 million barrels per day some time in 2006. They predict that global production will now fall every year, including this year, even with a quintupling of production in Canadian tar sands and new discoveries and developments elsewhere in the world. By 2020, they predict only 58 million barrels will be produced per day, and 39 million barrels per day by 2030. These predictions are made without regard for how high the price of oil goes in the meantime because their analysis is based solely on the technical limitations of oil production and its availability.

The group chose not to speculate about where the price of oil would go as peak production declines an average of 2% per year beginning this year. Last week, the price topped US $90 per barrel before settling back to $87 as of this writing, up from about $65 at the end of 2006.

But we can speculate. A 2% drop in the total capacity of global oil production may have been responsible for this year’s 33% rise in the price of a barrel. Two main factors produce pressures both up and down on that price: less oil for buyers pushes the price up, but a higher price pushes more buyers out of the market, providing a tempering effect on extreme price rises. According to government and oil company sources in Canada, about 60¢ of the current price of about $1 for a litre of gasoline is unrelated to the price of oil at the wellhead. This portion is represented by refining costs, taxes, shipping etc. and will likely remain the same. It is the remaining 40¢ portion of a $1 litre that is represented by the price of oil at the wellhead, and that portion is what may rise 33% per year as peak production drops 2% per year. This could mean that by mid-2012—the anticipated completion date for the expansion of Highway One, for example—the price of a barrel of oil could be as high as $350 and the resulting price of a litre of gasoline may be as high as $2.26 per litre. The average full tank fill-up at a gas station would therefore reach as high as $160 from the current $68.

Put another way, a round trip from Langley to Vancouver, such as might be taken every day for work by a commuter using Highway One, today costs $11.29 in gasoline costs, or about $2,500 per year if we assume 220 work days. By the time the new double-wide Highway One is open in 2012, that same commuter will be spending $25.50 per round trip for gasoline, or $5,600 annually for their work commute, for a rise of $3,100 over what she is paying in gasoline costs this year.

Put yet another way, the cost of a 3-zone bus pass is currently $3,300, or about 32% more than the cost of gasoline for the same commute. With no further price hikes for the bus, it will end up $2,300 cheaper than gasoline, or about 41% less by 2012. There will therefore likely be far more demand for buses than for space for cars on the highway by 2012, and there will also likely be sufficient space for those buses in the absence of so many cars on the highway as it exists today. The expansion of Highway One is destined therefore to be an enormous white elephant the day it opens.

It is also likely that those who continue to commute by car in the absence of sufficient buses will take the increased costs out of other budgeted items like meals at restaurants and bars and purchases at small businesses, spelling economic hard times for the local economy.

The Energy Watch Group did release other conclusions that hint at such social and economic changes, and these are worth quoting in their entirety:

“This [the decline in oil production] will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame. The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life.

“The now-beginning transition period probably has its own rules which are valid only during this phase. Things might happen which we never experienced before and which we may never experience again once this transition period has ended. Our way of dealing with energy issues probably will have to change fundamentally.

“The International Energy Agency, until recently anyway, denies that such a fundamental change of our energy supply is likely to happen in the near or medium term future. The message by the IEA, namely that business as usual will also be possible in future, sends a false signal to politicians, industry and consumers—not to forget the media.”

We can detect the reception of just such an array of false signals in our own local politicians, industry, and consumers who continue to think such projects as the expansion of Highway One will still make sense by the time they are completed.

The report hints that the world’s major oil companies tacitly agree that global oil production has peaked. They have each systematically reduced investment in oil exploration the last five years by between 30% and 50% despite increasing prices available in the market. The experts say it’s because there is hardly anywhere left to look for undiscovered oil.

As an aside, we also learn that putting in your car synthetic fuel derived from Alberta tar sands generates the same amount of CO2, when production and refining processes are included, as if your car was fueled with raw coal."

From: http://www.republic-news.org/archive/175-repub/175_potvin_oil.htm

[Anders Lindman]

Here is a very fresh article (posted 9 minutes ago) I found on Yahoo! News:

"...The inventory numbers reinforced a view that oil supplies are falling at a time of year when they should be rising to meet expected strong fourth quarter demand."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2007-10-26-oil-fri_N.htm?csp=34

[Anders Lindman]

"Oil prices rose above $93 a barrel to a new trading high in Asia Monday after Mexico's state oil company said it was suspending about a fifth of its oil production due to a storm."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071029/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_5

Storm they say. Somehow I think that's a load of crock. Mexico simply has problem producing the amount of oil they are supposed to produce. That's my bet. And even if Mexico will manage to keep the production at the same level, they will grab that oil themselves instead of exporting it. That's why George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are droolingly trying to bring about an American Union so that Mexico cannot hold on to that oil for themselves.

[368jrn]

Peak Oil, the official figures say it is here, but how can anyone trust "official " figures. For all we know there maybe vast quantities in reserve or not very much left at all.

One has to understand that OIL is like the lymphatic system of GAIA, and over the past 120 years or so it has been drained off at an ever increasing rate, you simply cant do that to a living entity and not expect consequences.

I believe that mother nature has an answer and a cure for everything. The time is right for water technology to come forth, such as these videos show

http://youtube.com/watch?v=SHXw1QkqV9w

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Tf4gOS8aoFk

http://youtube.com/watch?v=6Rb_rDkwGnU



If you control the production and supply of a product that the whole world depends on and cant live without you have everyone by the balls, but what if the fuel falls from the sky , how they gonna tax you on that one?

Gram for gram hydrogen provides twice the power that petrol etc does.

If you think about it water is amazing stuff,
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1598503208400404583&q=Schauberger&total=61&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=1
its the perfect inert carrier of 2 of the most reactive elements, in their isolated states the are explosive, thats what powers the space shuttle, liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen.


So if peak oil has arrived it my bet that its been designed that way, if you want control you generate fear and tell people there`s a shortage, which "justifies" their wars.

But people are too wrapped up in their sad little lives worrying about football or X factor to see whats really going on. They`ll continue to pay £1 a litre because they are asleep, ill continue to pay because in the end everything in this hololgraphic universe is an illusion, roll on 2012! peace out.:)

[Anders Lindman]

Peak Oil, the official figures say it is here, but how can anyone trust "official " figures.

The time is right for water technology to come forth, such as these videos show


I find more and more actual data about problems with oil production, such as this very recent article:

"MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - India's Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) said its second-quarter net profit declined along with a drop in sales.

HPCL, the country's second largest refining and oil marketing company, said net profit for the quarter ended September declined to 8.53 bln rupees from 12.22 bln a year ago."

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/10/29/afx4271766.html


How can their net profit decline when the oil price is higher than ever?!!!


I will check out the videos. Water fuel is a very interesting possibility.

EDIT: Oops! I did a web search, and the Hindustan Petroleum company deals only with refining oil it seems, not producing it. That explains it.

[utukxul]

peak oil or not. this thing even if its fake will affect us even if we dont want it.

[Anders Lindman]

peak oil or not. this thing even if its fake will affect us even if we dont want it.

Yeah, although I have great faith that it will turn out good eventually. It could be that we are at the end of the oil age and that there will be rapid changes happening in the next few years.

[niftygifter]

The lies about oil continue.
The price stays high ;-)

http://www.lwoil.com/

Apparently enough in the alaskan pipeline alone to supply America for 200 years.


Nifty

[Anders Lindman]

The lies about oil continue.
The price stays high ;-)

http://www.lwoil.com/

Apparently enough in the alaskan pipeline alone to supply America for 200 years.


Nifty

Yes, I watched a video about that. Didn't sound convincing though. U.S. oil production peaked in the 70s. I don't see how they could have kept their fingers away from that jam jar for so long if it was real.

[veritas2007]

I've worked in oil exploration for the last 13 years and right now there is a boom in exploration. An unprecedented 57 new or converted vessels will be delivered in 2007 (my company is responsible for 7 of them).

In the last 24 months we've surveyed offshore in the following areas (in no particular order):

West Africa (Sierra Leone, Congo, Senegal, Angola (Cabinda), Guinea)
Gulf of Mexico (Louisiana, Missisippi)
Iran
Norway
Libiya
India (Paradip and Mumbai)
Falklands
Brazil (Amazon basin and Espiritu Santo)

We have vessels on their way to Australia.

The oil companys are throwing millions into exploration right now in every concievable part of the world (granted though, that some of the exploration is of existing fields as technology has developed).

I'd say that this is a very good indication that peak oil is a reality.

[Anders Lindman]

I've worked in oil exploration for the last 13 years and right now there is a boom in exploration. An unprecedented 57 new or converted vessels will be delivered in 2007 (my company is responsible for 7 of them).

In the last 24 months we've surveyed offshore in the following areas (in no particular order):

West Africa (Sierra Leone, Congo, Senegal, Angola (Cabinda), Guinea)
Gulf of Mexico (Louisiana, Missisippi)
Iran
Norway
Libiya
India (Paradip and Mumbai)
Falklands
Brazil (Amazon basin and Espiritu Santo)

We have vessels on their way to Australia.

The oil companys are throwing millions into exploration right now in every concievable part of the world (granted though, that some of the exploration is of existing fields as technology has developed).

I'd say that this is a very good indication that peak oil is a reality.

Interesting information. So oil companies are now frantically looking for more oil fields. I saw a graph that showed that oil discoveries peaked some 40 years ago. The only fields they find now are very small, and most of the big ones are very old, and as I suspect, very depleted.

[veritas2007]

A few years ago in Gulf of Mexico, they found reserves deeper than they had been originally drilling which led to increased activity in the area.

I worked for a company in the '90s that surveyed Falklands but nothing really came of it. The company I work for now revisited it because technology had moved on but I don't think the oil companies have deemed the area viable yet.

Some areas seem to have large resources, some pan out to nothing but they're definately looking for it. The oil industry is cyclic and exploration peeks every 5-7 years. This current peak seems to be holding longer than usual but I dare say the ridiculous price of oil has something to do with it.

If I hear any more info, I'll post it up.

Personally, I'm all for free energy and I've been watching the SEG progress with great interest :)

[Anders Lindman]

If I hear any more info, I'll post it up.


Thanks. It's important to know about oil if one is to have some understanding of the world today. Our modern society is more or less created out of oil.

[Anders Lindman]

"Stockpiles dropped 3.89 million barrels to 312.7 million barrels last week, the department said. It was the lowest since October 2005. A 400,000 barrel gain was expected, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures, fell 17 percent."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aq12c6Gt.yeA&refer=home

They go on to say in the article that: "There is no reason I can think of for a refiner to buy a single barrel to put a barrel in inventories", quoting an expert.

That could be a valid point. But what if the real reason for smaller oil stockpiles is that there isn't enough oil exported to fill the demands? :confused: :eek::eek::eek:

[Anders Lindman]

"Saudi Arabian oil reserves may be dwindling and the impact will adversely affect the world's economy, according the Web site of oil-industry analyst Matthew Simmons, who is speaking at UK tonight."

From: http://media.www.kykernel.com/media/storage/paper305/news/2007/11/01/CampusNews/Oil-Analyst.To.Address.Dwindling.Resources-3071006.shtml

Compare with one of my previous posts:

"Attention at those meetings will focus on Saudi Arabia, which takes the lead role in the cartel's decisions because it is the group's largest producer and the only member with major excess production capacity."

From: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119335553706972227.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

In your dreams Mr. Neil King Jr. from The Wall Street Journal. Saudi Arabia has already peaked in oil production a looong time ago. Excess production capacity my ass.

So here we have that Saudi Arabia is the ONLY member with excess production capacity according to The Wall Street Journal. But according to Matthew Simmons even Saudi Arabia's oil reserves may be dwindling. And so if that is true then oil in THE ENTIRE WORLD is dwindling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anders Lindman]

Check out the below chart. Notice the production plateau starting around 2005. Does anyone seriously believe that the demand for oil has reached a natural plateau? Not likely, with China having an economic growth rate of 17% per year. China's demand for oil is bigger than ever. This means that the plateau is because the global production of oil has peaked. It may have peaked because some conspiracy keeping the production down on purpose, but to me that seems extremely far-fetched. More likely, the plateau is caused by the world's actual oil reserves - taken as a total - have started to become depleted.

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PU200709_Fig1c_small.png

Another interesting graph is the one below. Notice the stepwise increase in Saudi Arabia's 'proven' reserves. Does that look natural to you? And does the flat curve after the increase look natural? Are we supposed to believe that Saudi Arabia's proven reserves remain at the same level no matter how much oil they produce from those reserves??? Please!

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/SaudiArabiaState_small.png

http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/10/chart-of-day.html

[Anders Lindman]

"Oil producers, including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC], are powerless to stop prices from reaching $100 as few countries can produce more crude, Oman's energy minister said yesterday.

Oman's Mohammed bin Hamad al-Rumhy said he didn't know of one oil-producing country that isn't at maximum output."

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aEh4_qkj_voo&refer=asia

[Anders Lindman]

"Refinery problems also contributed to Friday's gains. Operations at a 172,000 barrel-per-day Petroplus Holdings AG refinery in England are expected to be limited for a month due to a fire earlier this week. And Chevron Corp. said Friday its 330,000 barrel-per-day refinery in Pascagoula, Miss., will run at reduced rates until early next year due to an August fire."

From: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071102/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_144

It would be interesting to know how common fires are in refineries. If fires are rare events in the oil refinery industry, then this news about fires is highly suspicious. Could it be that the fires were fabricated in order to hide the truth that they have not enough oil to refine?

[Anders Lindman]

"Net income at Chevron's flagship business of producing and selling oil and natural gas fell 2% to $3.4 billion. Worldwide production was the equivalent of 2.6 million barrels a day of oil, a 4% decline attributed in part to revised operating terms in Venezuela."

From: http://www.latimes.com/business/investing/la-fi-chevron3nov03,1,4048652.story?coll=la-headlines-business-invest

Now, this is interesting. The article starts with:

"Anyone who filled a gas tank this summer might be surprised by what Chevron Corp. reported Friday: For the first time in years, Chevron lost money making and selling fuel in the U.S.

A decline in pump prices was partly to blame for the company's 26% drop in third-quarter profit, which was bigger than Wall Street had expected. Still, the average price in California was above $3 for a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline during nearly half of the quarter."

So the markets were surprised by Chevron's lower profit in producing and selling fuel. But the big surprise to me is the first quote about Chevron's flagship business which is producing and selling oil and natural gas. With the high oil price, shouldn't that mean that Chevron is able to get much more money for the oil they produce? :confused: Mustn't that mean that the reason for the lower profit in Chevron's flagship business is because they have not been able to produce enough oil and natural gas? Producing oil is one thing, and refining oil to make fuel etc is an entirely other thing. Producing oil depends on oil wells. Are the oil wells running out?